Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

I am not surprised at the relatively low rates of parental consent* for the teen vaccinations, having now experienced the process, at least in our area

On Thursday afternoon we were emailed a letter from school basically saying it’s happening on these two dates in early November, fill in the online form attached from the SIAS, ask them any questions not us. Fair enough.

However the SIAS letter said the consents had to be sent online within 72 hours. So by Sun afternoon (?by midnight maybe - not clarified anywhere).

Any working parent who, typically, thought “We’ll leave this to the weekend!” and then realised they had queries which they couldn’t find answers to in the attached leaflets, had no way of asking anyone.

Seems rather unhelpful and not likely to raise consent rates.

• obviously there are other factors too

49k cases today

And it’s a Monday

@JanglyBeads Mondays are no longer that much lower, new pattern

Oh I was thinking they’d become lower, knew something had changed! Thanks
Is that because people are LFTing on a Sun night / Mon morning?

Sorry I know it was discussed here a little while ago…

The last few weeks, Monday's reported cases has been a mini-peak (then carrying on up after a day or so). Almost 50k cases is shit though.

I just noticed a post on another thread about Scotland decreasing and that’s ok as spike is expected

Why wouldn’t we see the same will happen in England?

The pre Winter spike

@Stilltalkstotrees it's not great. Feeling very despondent. The total no. in hospital is still hovering around 7k. The next few weeks will be telling.

Does anyone know - can it just keep climbing forever without a lockdown? Or would they eventually fall naturally like in the summer?

@MarshaBradyo oh really! Do you know which thread? That could be something to hang on to!

Covid here is Scotland. I’m not sure why we wouldn’t spike and decrease too - maybe others can say more though!

@MarshaBradyo thank you! I'm getting married first week of December so literally wait each day for the Covid figures, praying they will come down soon and not just climb forever!

Wondering if anyone knows why the hospital admissions data on the covid dashboard hasn't been updated since 12 October - is there a more up to date source anywhere? Maybe I am missing something?

Our mitigation measures or lack of I should say will play a part. In Scotland household contacts require a negative pcr buy we are instructed to carry on as long as you are double vaccinated or under 18. Although some areas and schools are now taking PHE advice and changing this. As has been said this approach is nothing more than a gamble. Will the boosters be given in time? All we can do is keep calm and carry on. I'm not confident sadly.

@mrshoho

Our mitigation measures or lack of I should say will play a part. In Scotland household contacts require a negative pcr buy we are instructed to carry on as long as you are double vaccinated or under 18. Although some areas and schools are now taking PHE advice and changing this. As has been said this approach is nothing more than a gamble. Will the boosters be given in time? All we can do is keep calm and carry on. I'm not confident sadly.

Wouldn’t this speed the process up here?

Mitigations flatten and slow it down so if England have fewer the spike will increase quickly, then decrease

Nope @RunningOnFumes

It will increase quicker but what do we have to flatten the curve? We've a large population all mixing and spreading. Carehomes are doing their very best with strict measures. I really don't see how our rates are going to drop any time soon by carrying on as we are. This is what our Government wanted so maybe they are confident that our NHS will be just fine. Then again they did say they wanted to prioritise Education but look how many children are currently being impacted.

I do t think that sharp decrease in Scotland is due to any change in mitigations.

They weren’t enough to cause that sharp drop. Even a full lockdown means a curve takes ages to decline.

Which means that immunity played a part - why wouldn’t the same happen here?

Don’t

Immunity has definitely played a part as well as the other measures Scotland has in place. Here in England we are currently relying almost completely on vaccination immunity but with slow and delayed progress with 12-15 year olds and now waning immunity in older age groups. We have Plan B in the pipeline if hospital admissions increase above what is manageable for the NHS.

we are currently relying almost completely on vaccination immunity but with slow and delayed progress with 12-15 year olds

I’m not sure this is correct? Over half will have natural immunity already.

Plus antibodies are high, esp in London

The peak anywhere is surely a combination of natural and vaccination immunity which will be reached at roughly the same point. Mitigations will slow this down but still the same number in total with immunity at that peak.

Colder weather is now starting to have an impact on the numbers, how long will the government continue to deny we can’t do this without mitigation’s in place? At this rate a full lockdown will be inevitable sooner rather than later unless something drastic happens. Still hardly anyone wearing a face mask and everywhere seems to be packed. Madness.

Hi all, I’m wondering if there are stats for daily numbers of LFT vs PCR testing? Our daily infection rate is high compared to neighbouring countries, is that mainly because we’re picking up so many asymptomatic cases?

wider context for the hospital metrics in England - recognising the seven day averages for both admissions and hospitalisations are both showing an increase.

These therefore shows the Aug to Dec period for 2020 and the current 2021 position.

England admissions marginally above this time last year.

then the same thing by for each NHS region in England. This one shows:

East of England - although not excessive, a more pronounced gap

London - slightly above last year

Midlands - again slightly above last year, although the 2020 rise started a fair bit sooner that London

North East and Yorkshire where admissions now below the equivalent point last year

followed by

North West - this time last year admission numbers already some way higher than now

South East - slightly ahead of last year

South West - a more significant gap