Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

61 to 80

Further SW councils with big this week / last week equivalent position increases. Interestingly much less marked increase, though still an increase, for Cornwall

Allerdale up in Cumbria, like Barrow earlier, may have turned the corner.

81 to 100

getting into the flyover states equivalents now.

So grouped together 101 to 120 , 121 to 140 , and 141 to 160

Rugby , Stafford and North Lincolnshire all appear in this group. All amongst the highest rates a few weeks back, as the deeper red conditional formatting (which is by individual week) shows.

Moving into the lower half 161 to 180 which includes (near the bottom of the page) the first appearance of a London Borough , this being Richmond

Closely followed by Hounslow near the top of the 181 to 200 group.

However the stand out on this page is Bristol

201 to 220, 221 to 240 and 241 to 260

and then into the 50 or so councils with the lowest current rates - relative to the rest; none of these would be considered genuinely low

261 to 280 which includes the likes of Manchester , Liverpool and Birmingham all big student cities. York another student city (more due to having a cathedral rather than a genuinely large population). Leicester another place with two unis, and which we are more used to seeing at the other end. Then our old friends Bolton and Blackburn

@cantkeepawayforever

Ask Germany, Canada, France? As we have a case rate equal to the rest of Europe added together, then perhaps looking to see what they are doing might be fruitful?

Here we are with possibly our closest comparators:

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1449807079301058571?s=21

John Burn Murdoch (of the FT) arguing that waning immunity is more of a problem for us than our lack of mitigations. Being the first to jab widely turns out not to be an advantage if you don’t keep jabbingz

John Burn Murdoch (of the FT) arguing that waning immunity is more of a problem for us than our lack of mitigations. Being the first to jab widely turns out not to be an advantage if you don’t keep jabbing

I've wondered if this was the case. The good news is that we are making progress on getting vulnerable boosted. I will be very relieved when my parents get jabbed soon.

thanks for the JBM twitter thread @JanglyBeads. He can normally be relied up for useful insights. And his references to longer term structural issues such as sick pay provision and poverty in old age are highly pertinent.

281 to 300 sees, I think, our first inner London borough - Wandsworth at 290th - and with rates pretty much flat for the past four weeks.

Nottingham also appears in this group.

Finally 301 to 315

Lowest 15 Councils

Ten x Inner London Boroughs

Two x Outer London Boroughs - Brent + Barking and Dagenham

Three x Kent districts - Canterbury, Folkestone and Swale The latter with a bit of an upswing.

@JanglyBeads thanks for the Twitter thread, a really interesting read.

Did anyone clock this regarding excess deaths and Scotland.

twitter.com/surajitstat/status/1449513006082269191?s=24

Taking a slightly wider timescale view of the position in England at the moment as compared to last year. As hospital metrics are not updated over the weekend I'll leave them until tomorrow, but I would not be surprised to see a continuation of the upward drift.

The seven day average in England heading into the weekend was approaching 5200, having dipped below 5000 in early October, but reached 6300 in mid September.

Mid September 2020 stood at 687 almost ten times lower.

1st October 2020 stood at 1883, a bit less than three time lower.

15th October 2020 stood at 3861 - as compared with 5188 this year.

By 20th October last year it was 5100 - so just about where we are now.

By 31st October last year it stood at 8762 and by 19th November had passed 14,000.

Whilst I do think there will be upward movement I would surmise that it will remain some way from the levels last Autumn. With those also being some way from the 33,594 seven day average we got to in January.

Actually although I'll update it again tomorrow this is the full current view at the end of last week.

In terms of comparisons with other countries- this may be a daft comment I don’t know- but aren’t we testing like several times as many people?

what I was going to post, and still will, is the seven day average for deaths within 28 days by date of death. This has a longer lag so the seven day average is up to 10th October. It has been running around 79 to 81 since the start of the month, having dropped from close to 120 at the end of the first week of September. The current level is pretty much where we were in mid August.

However if I were to run on past 10th the average remains around 80 for several more days, suggesting that as deaths for that period are not yet fully reported we are going to see an upward movement. Likely, and sadly, sustained over the coming weeks. But again far less likely to match last year. By end October 2020 the seven day average in England was closing in on 250.

@boys3

what I was going to post, and still will, is the seven day average for deaths within 28 days by date of death. This has a longer lag so the seven day average is up to 10th October. It has been running around 79 to 81 since the start of the month, having dropped from close to 120 at the end of the first week of September. The current level is pretty much where we were in mid August.

However if I were to run on past 10th the average remains around 80 for several more days, suggesting that as deaths for that period are not yet fully reported we are going to see an upward movement. Likely, and sadly, sustained over the coming weeks. But again far less likely to match last year. By end October 2020 the seven day average in England was closing in on 250.

Ah good to see these lines about to cross though.. provides something to be hopeful for 🤞🏻

boys3 thanks for the figures...we're up to 12th (Cheshire East) and there's no convenient "your tests were processed in Wolverhampton" excuse for us. It can't be just schools/colleges returning, as they have everywhere else too.

@JanglyBeads

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1449807079301058571?s=21

John Burn Murdoch (of the FT) arguing that waning immunity is more of a problem for us than our lack of mitigations. Being the first to jab widely turns out not to be an advantage if you don’t keep jabbingz

Boosters are being given at 6 months not 5, has he suggested elsewhere that immunity is actually waning sooner, at 5 months?

Boosters were already late getting started. Those that had the second vaccine in January didn't begin getting them until September/October. These would have been our most vulnerable and enderly. The government didn't seem to care much about these risks when they went ahead with their plans.

I think the fact we are seeing so many double jabbed people getting covid is evidence of waning immunity. The first to be jabbed were actually NHS so hopefully the most vulnerable will get their booster fairly close to the 6 month mark. Is there any data on how many third booster jabs have been done or are we still doing the third initial jabs for those with suppressed immunity?

@LauraJinass

I think the fact we are seeing so many double jabbed people getting covid is evidence of waning immunity. The first to be jabbed were actually NHS so hopefully the most vulnerable will get their booster fairly close to the 6 month mark. Is there any data on how many third booster jabs have been done or are we still doing the third initial jabs for those with suppressed immunity?

It depends, I know quite a few families where the kids got covid in the past 2 months. In some cases the adults did too, but rarely very unwell. The ones who were unwell were one not vaccinated, one single jabbed and two who had their second dose in July. I think it shows more that a percentage don't get full protection from 2 doses. That said, despite being unwell for a few weeks they are all better and none got hospitalised for long (2 x-ray, 1 oxygen but home same day). If that was flu, we'd just accept it as a bad year. Cases don't seem to be concentrated in the over 70s as you'd expect from waning immunity either. I'm interested to know the difference in figures once booster jabs get added, but I am skeptical at the moment about how much immunity waning is affecting figures, rather than prevalence and people not having being protected from two jabs the whole time.

@LauraJinass

I think the fact we are seeing so many double jabbed people getting covid is evidence of waning immunity. The first to be jabbed were actually NHS so hopefully the most vulnerable will get their booster fairly close to the 6 month mark. Is there any data on how many third booster jabs have been done or are we still doing the third initial jabs for those with suppressed immunity?

My parents have had appt for booster. They got their 1st dose in February.

They are in Scotland however.

Relatives undergoing cancer treatment have both had their boosters (in England) and my doctor brother is having his booster this week.