Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Why is it so hard to think logically through:
More cases=more hospitalizations
more cases=more long covid=more ppl on benefits/pt jobs=more cost to the country=more health issues for more ppl=more strain on the nhs in the future=more economic damage in the future
more cases=more disruptions (especially for those who can't get properly or at all vaccinated -- kids)

on the other hand what are we gaining from this approach?

1. better nhs services, because they are not overwhelmed? no. they are overwhelmed
2. less disruption to the economy? wait, no.
3. less distuption to kids? hell no, and the gcse and A-level kids will atest to this. They are screwed multiple times over.
4. are we future proofing the country? no. we are creating perfect circumstances for variants to emerge. We are setting up for future huge problems.

so pls. someone explain why are ppl not angy about the totally idiotic way this is being handled? Why aren't parents up in arms? Why aren't teachers, doctors, unions keeping silent?

There is no benefit to doing half measures too late.
If there were measurable benefits to this approach I'd be happy to debate it with anyone and even may be convinced. But there are none. The only ones truly benefiting from this whole shit are the tory party donors, friends and family. And ppl are happy to pay for this through their noses.

@TheSunIsStillShining so you want a full lockdown now? Because that is the only way cases are coming down unless they call naturally eventually.

Masks in shops and rule of 6 won't dent delta. Even Oz and NZ have struggled with it even with a full lockdown and low case rates to start with.k

[quote weddingguestdec]@TheSunIsStillShining I'm not so hard of thinking that I needed it explaining, thanks.

The ? was because I thought it was rude to describe anyone that sees things differently to you as hard of thinking.[/quote]
Anyone seeing things differently and underpinning their opinion with more than media sprouted nonsense is not hard of thinking. Anyone who can demonstrate their inner logic (be it even very diff from mine) is also not hard of thinking.

People who say things over and over again, denying simple logic or common sense actions, wishing things to be what they are not or just regurgitating lines from official statements without ever thinking about them - they are hard of thinking in my book.

@Florelei this is the data thread. There will always be twats about but that doesn’t mean the government should release advice saying “please don’t be a twat and cough on people”.

@TheSunIsStillShining ok expert. When will the next lockdown be?

Patrick Vallance being interviewed on R4 til 530 I think

People who say things over and over again, denying simple logic or common sense actions, wishing things to be what they are not or just regurgitating lines from official statements without ever thinking about them - they are hard of thinking in my book

Well I do think things through and don’t feel the same way as you.

Whether I meet your criteria though who knows..

@weddingguestdec
Masks in shops and rule of 6 won't dent delta. Even Oz and NZ have struggled with it even with a full lockdown and low case rates to start with.k

And you can prove this how?
I never said rule of 6, tbf.
Also - because you think it won't make a dent we should not even be trying? Delta is not a magical variant - it has the same physical limitations as any other variant - eg. it is not particularly smaller in size: hence masks will stop it to some extent. If worn properly and not are proper masks, not some nice piece of textile in front of face.

Yes, there is a bigger viral load, but if we ventilate spaces better (eg classrooms) the particles will diminish in numbers. Again, basic physics that even I know, and I'm rubbish at it.

What I am missing is a lack of common sense on a population level. I could have counted the number of ppl in masks in a shopping mall today. Even one hand would have been enough. Nobody cares any more, because it's over. It's not. And by the time ppl realise that they could have done small things that are non-limiting it will be way too late and we will be heading for another lockdown. Which nobody really wants.

I don’t think people don’t care or are uneducated. They are getting on with their lives as they have been encouraged to do. Not everyone has the head for figures of most on this thread.
I think the government would have to come out and state they were wrong to announce freedom day and they need to backtrack for anything to change. They won’t do that unless they really have no choice…

@TheSunIsStillShining you can't blame people for acting normally once restrictions have been fully lifted? People have missed out on life for 18 months.

You aren't better than everyone else or more intelligent if you are still living a restricted life...

It’s fine to keep the same behaviours if you want. Some are

Not everyone feels the same way. And I do know about the numbers so it’s not being unaware

@TheSunIsStillShining

Why is it so hard to think logically through: More cases=more hospitalizations more cases=more long covid=more ppl on benefits/pt jobs=more cost to the country=more health issues for more ppl=more strain on the nhs in the future=more economic damage in the future more cases=more disruptions (especially for those who can't get properly or at all vaccinated -- kids)

on the other hand what are we gaining from this approach?

1. better nhs services, because they are not overwhelmed? no. they are overwhelmed
2. less disruption to the economy? wait, no.
3. less distuption to kids? hell no, and the gcse and A-level kids will atest to this. They are screwed multiple times over.
4. are we future proofing the country? no. we are creating perfect circumstances for variants to emerge. We are setting up for future huge problems.

so pls. someone explain why are ppl not angy about the totally idiotic way this is being handled? Why aren't parents up in arms? Why aren't teachers, doctors, unions keeping silent?

There is no benefit to doing half measures too late.
If there were measurable benefits to this approach I'd be happy to debate it with anyone and even may be convinced. But there are none. The only ones truly benefiting from this whole shit are the tory party donors, friends and family. And ppl are happy to pay for this through their noses.

I don’t agree with your perspective at all. This doesn’t mean I am hard of thinking or lacking in logic.

Why are we having this debate here? Perhaps start a new thread to vent your anger.

@Bizawit
It's perfectly okay an normal not to agree. But apart from stating this you (and others here and on other threads) never actually give viable reasoning. That is what annoys me. not the difference in opinion.

@weddingguestdec
I don't see it as a restriction to wear a mask and not breath down other ppl's neck. Apart from that I do what I need to do, go about my life. The fact I work for a company 1700 km away and thus from home has nothing to do with covid.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@Bizawit
It's perfectly okay an normal not to agree. But apart from stating this you (and others here and on other threads) never actually give viable reasoning. That is what annoys me. not the difference in opinion.

@weddingguestdec
I don't see it as a restriction to wear a mask and not breath down other ppl's neck. Apart from that I do what I need to do, go about my life. The fact I work for a company 1700 km away and thus from home has nothing to do with covid.[/quote]
I’ve spent hours on threads on this board providing my reasoning. I’ve seen lots of others expressing similar viewpoints doing the same.

It Never goes anywhere: people aren’t interested in hearing alternative points of view, and most of the time it results in a pile on / a series of personal attacks / accusations. What’s the point? Over 1.5 years into this, I tend to avoid threads debating restrictions. I like coming on here though, because people share lots of informative data / analysis and I like to keep informed of the current state of things in terms of what’s actually going on out there.

[quote weddingguestdec]@TheSunIsStillShining 'hard of thinking'?

Restrictions returning hinge on hospital capacity. Not if someone coughs on you in queue. HTH.[/quote]
Wow so rude

I agree with Bizawit at this point if the posts aren’t providing enough reasoning for you then there’s not much we can do about it.

It’s not like anyone has held back on posting why they think as they do.

[quote weddingguestdec]@TheSunIsStillShining you can't blame people for acting normally once restrictions have been fully lifted? People have missed out on life for 18 months.

You aren't better than everyone else or more intelligent if you are still living a restricted life...

[/quote]
The legal mandate has been lifted.

The virus however is still behaving in the same way, that is to say, airborne spread, and is still potentially lethal, even to the vaccinated.

So there are very good, scientifically based reasons for trying to follow the "3 Cs" advice from JVT and co.

One could indeed argue that this is wise behaviour in a pandemic (for people who are able to wear masks etc)

[quote weddingguestdec]@TheSunIsStillShining ok expert. When will the next lockdown be?[/quote]
When government policy has led to the imminent collapse of vital national infrastructure.

The same as lockdown 1 and lockdown 3.

@PrincessNutNuts so the number in hospital being stable and there being no vaccines in lockdown 1 and 3 makes no difference in your mind?

This is a data thread and the steady hospitalisations screenshot you posted is promising. 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻

gosh what a feisty bunch today.

I really feel I ought to join in.

These are the latest rates per 100,000 for each of the past five weeks, with the most recent to 14th October, so a three day lag applied.

Then the cases as reported this time last week for w/c 4th Oct and today for w/c 11th Oct. With the absolute change and the percentage increase shown.

For this first graphic, covering English regions, the percentage of additional week on week change that each region represents of the England total is also shown.

Thus on that equivalent basis an extra 33,657 cases so far, with the South West accounting for almost 42% of them.

Having mentioned the South West the inexcusable failings at the lab in Wolverhampton needs to be raised again. Whilst it is difficult to fathom how this could have been allowed to occur, the fact is that it did, and huge credit should go the likes of @Itisasecret for sticking to their guns over this.

Have SPI-M said anything about their model anywhere, or anyone said anything? What did they get so wrong, R has been significantly more than 1.1 (their most optimistic published one) on boys stats there, but the actual hospitalisations are significantly below that, and outside the error bars for even 1.1.

What's the error in the model, if it's timing of these hospitalisations, then that's disastrous, if it's rate of hospitalisation then that's hugely positive, they must have some sensitivity analysis which says what are the potential directions they got it wrong.

Knowing that is the data we need to know if the case levels are too high or not - the hospitalisations are currently still below what was forecast and therefore "decided" when the restrictions were relaxed.

Onto English councils. The sharper eyed amongst you will note that for reasons as yet unclear the four Buckinghamshire districts, which I think technically no longer actually exist, each appear twice. Not the slightest idea why I may have done that.

Aylesbury anomalies aside, they are shown in descending order, 20 councils per graphic.

These are therefore 1 to 20.

Ipswich currently has the highest rate in England at close to 850 cases per 100,000; followed by:

Wellingborough in Northamptonshire, although its current week in progress is almost static.

Then two *South West^ councils

Somerset West and Taunton and Bath and NE Somerset both with very significant week on week increases reflecting the pre October 11th / 12th results debacle. Be prepared for a lot more of that.

West Lindsey in Lincolnshire then comes in fifth highest.

No place in the highest 20 for Kettering - a positive sign perhaps.

21 to 40

Still no sign of Kettering

Trafford looks to have peaked, and similarly Barrow up in Cumbria.

Chiltern in Buckinghamshire 22nd, and repeated, for those unknown reasons, in case anyone missed it the first time.

41 to 60

Where Kettering makes its appearance.

Stroud and Cheltenham, both South West , both part of the suspicious nine, both feature.

[quote covidwoewoe]@PrincessNutNuts so the number in hospital being stable and there being no vaccines in lockdown 1 and 3 makes no difference in your mind?

This is a data thread and the steady hospitalisations screenshot you posted is promising. 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻[/quote]
What do you mean?

I'm not sure which post this is a reply to.