Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

[quote weddingguestdec]@PrincessNutNuts it was rising in 2020 - it's barely changed in your 2021 screen shot....[/quote]
That might be because around half of all cases most weeks are in children - who end up on ventilation in far smaller numbers than adults.

But as we know from last year, cases move up the age groups once it's too cold to see grandma in the garden.

Vaccination will slow this down, and reduce the overall number dramatically, but it's very unlikely that the dynamic has changed since we've seen covid move from young to older age groups so consistently in the colder months before.

No one’s talking about forcible vaccination. The poster meant vaccinate all ages as other countries are doing.

@JanglyBeads

No one’s talking about forcible vaccination. The poster meant vaccinate all ages as other countries are doing.

Exactly, Jangly. Apologies if that wasn't clear. Countries in Europe that are faring better than the UK at present are all vaccinating the full age range, right down to 12 years old.

@JanglyBeads

No one’s talking about forcible vaccination. The poster meant vaccinate all ages as other countries are doing.

We are doing 12 to 15 now?

What’s slowing it down - supply / organisation/ reluctance

Other?

If it is slow as some have said

Seems to be organisation.

Some countries (inc European ones) are looking at (or maybe starting the process of?) jabbing 5-12s.

I’m not sure if JCVI will active younger but we’ll see

It’s a shame if it’s not going well though I found 16 plus really good and swift

What’s slowing it down - supply / organisation/ reluctance

Infection (with infections in the target group running in the thousands / 100,000 at the moment, a very large number of supposedly eligible children are within 28 days of infection)

Organisation (and infection of vaccinators). Delivery through schools rather than the tried and tested mass vaccination centres has been slow, cumbersome and fraught with supply issues of personnel and vaccine.

Supply (of people). Infection of vaccinators and in their children, as well as numbers of infected people needing NhS staff in their normal posts has severely limited the number of vaccinators available.

Had we done this in the low point of infection in the summer, like other countries did, then the picture would be entirely different.

Out of those I can see schools being a slowing factor. We did hub for 16 plus. Very quick.

If they are within 28 days of infection they will be immune so can wait

Plus it comes down to JCVI which was a data science based decision

I agree it wasn’t great timing but I can’t really find fault with their expertise

There have never been effective mitigations in most schools. “Bubbles” that weren’t strictly bubbles, one way systems, improved hygiene practices and face covering in communal areas helped. But eventually by Christmas last year and by the end of July they were overwhelmed. The refusal to mandate mask wearing in classrooms or facilitate proper social distancing was unwise and a direct result of lobby groups with links to a number of dubious and unsavoury organisations with considerable influence within the Conservative party.
The fact that absolutely no effort has been made to improve ventilation in schools - which is an achievable and cost effective measure that other countries have invested in - or even provide the promised CO2 monitors is testament to the bad faith of the current government, its retroactive policy of too little too late and its disregard for parents, children and school staff. The current level of infections among children and staff and its impact on education was entirely predictable.

What do you mean by “schools being the slowing factor”, Marsha?

@JanglyBeads

What do you mean by “schools being the slowing factor”, Marsha?

I was responding to this in Cant’s post

Delivery through schools rather than the tried and tested mass vaccination centres has been slow, cumbersome and fraught with supply issues of personnel and vaccine.

I can see it could be a factor

@MarshaBradyo

Out of those I can see schools being a slowing factor. We did hub for 16 plus. Very quick.

If they are within 28 days of infection they will be immune so can wait

When vaccinators are only visiting a school once, then 'waiting' isn't a great plan. Until - I think - today, there has been no indication that this age group would be able to be vaccinated anywhere else, so getting Covid (or having symptoms and being absent for testing on the only vaccination day for your school) has prevented children of this age group being vaccinated at all, not just 'for 28 days'.

@MarshaBradyo

Plus it comes down to JCVI which was a data science based decision

I agree it wasn’t great timing but I can’t really find fault with their expertise

My understanding is that the minutes have not been released, so we don't actually know the information that they based their decision on. We know they did not take educational disruption into account, nor spread into other age groups - just a very narrow 'risk to the individual child' viewpoint, which they agreed was positive but not positive 'enough'.

@MarshaBradyo

And what There posted

Yup

@MarshaBradyo

Out of those I can see schools being a slowing factor. We did hub for 16 plus. Very quick.

If they are within 28 days of infection they will be immune so can wait

So you don't feel that absence of vaccinators (11 due to turn up to cover the number of children in a school, either 2-5 able to do so or cancelled altogether; vaccinators either had Covid, were at home with Covid-infected children, or had been recalled by their 'normal' NHS jobs to cover absent colleagues) is an issue? Why not?

someone said how great that cases are falling.
Well in my neck of the woods we are 991/100k.
more than doubled in one week. Hurray for falling cases. Darkest purple on gov map.

The narrative that we need to look at hospitalization has nothing to do with public health or even common sense. It's a false pretense and a rubber bone to chew on for the uneducated/hard of thinking.

1. as pp said: it's lag means that the horses have bolted weeks ago
2. gives a fuck about the possibility of long covid

What is happening in this country is negligence on a whole population level. And ppl are cheering for it, because at least they don't have to wear masks or keep the 2m in an indoor space. Great.

Stupidity on every level. I had to ask 2 ppl today in 2 separate queues to pls don't cough on me. Both without masks, standing in my personal 40 cm zone*. Fuck them. They don't give a shit about the other person might be vulnerable or just cautious. As long as they can get to the till sooner. And this selfish prick behavior has only escalated in the past 6 months.

*regardless of covid I have asked ppl to stand back if they came this close anyway.

@TheSunIsStillShining 'hard of thinking'?

Restrictions returning hinge on hospital capacity. Not if someone coughs on you in queue. HTH.

Cant I can see how it would slide things down but I don’t get how so many criticised those who ‘didn’t follow the science’ will reject it if it’s not timely,

No it didn’t fit easily into school holidays but I prefer JCVI to do their job as they see fit.

I also don’t have an issue with CMO getting the decision afterwards but the whole thing needs to follow process.

Slow

[quote weddingguestdec]@TheSunIsStillShining 'hard of thinking'?

Restrictions returning hinge on hospital capacity. Not if someone coughs on you in queue. HTH.[/quote]
So you’d be happy for someone to cough on your elderly parents or grandparents?

@Florelei Christ. I didn't say it was ok or I'd be happy about it? I said it's not something to measure the likelihood off restrictions?

It's not a pleasant thing to do do someone, Covid or not.

hard of thinking=idiot, nicely put.

Restrictions returning hinge on hospital capacity. Not if someone coughs on you in queue.
Of course it's not on me. But by many idiots more could end up in hospitals then necessary. I don't buy into the keep your distance is a restriction of human rights or causes mental health issues. It's an idiotic excuse.
Please explain to me how wearing a mask and keeping distance in a shop/indoor space is hurting anyone? It's not. And yet, few are doing it, regardless of the fact that we have the highest caseload in Europe and we are in the top 10 around the world.

@TheSunIsStillShining I'm not so hard of thinking that I needed it explaining, thanks.

The ? was because I thought it was rude to describe anyone that sees things differently to you as hard of thinking.

@weddingguestdec - fair enough. Apologies if I misread the tone of your post.