Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

The previous waves were before adults had been vaccinated though? We had the opportunity to keep infections lower but our Government went for the approach of doing very little to avoid it spreading through our unvaccinated under 16s.

@mrshoho you can't open up and have low infections. The vaccine prevents serious illness, not someone catching it al all.

Cases shot up when we opened up from the 17th May. To keep them low, we'd have to have stayed in step 2 forever.

@mrshoho

Isn't this exactly what was expected to happen though? With schools returning with no social distancing or masks plus unvaccinated 12-15s, with the additional measure of allowing household members of positive cases to continue mixing? Now we are in the waiting game of whether cases lead to too many hospital admissions for the NHS.

Well some of us certainly expected it. Actions have logical consequences.

Patients in ventilated beds comparison:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

@PrincessNutNuts it was rising in 2020 - it's barely changed in your 2021 screen shot....

[quote weddingguestdec]@mrshoho you can't open up and have low infections. The vaccine prevents serious illness, not someone catching it al all.

Cases shot up when we opened up from the 17th May. To keep them low, we'd have to have stayed in step 2 forever.[/quote]
I beg to differ. We could have opened up but kept some measures. We could have started vaccinating 12-15 before September. We could have kept the household isolation requirements. It really did not have to be this all or nothing approach.

Hospital admissions comparison:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

[quote weddingguestdec]@mrshoho you can't open up and have low infections. The vaccine prevents serious illness, not someone catching it al all.

Cases shot up when we opened up from the 17th May. To keep them low, we'd have to have stayed in step 2 forever.[/quote]
Other countries have opened up but are managing it much better.

[quote weddingguestdec]@mrshoho you can't open up and have low infections. The vaccine prevents serious illness, not someone catching it al all.

Cases shot up when we opened up from the 17th May. To keep them low, we'd have to have stayed in step 2 forever.[/quote]
The thing is, many European countries are managing much lower infections without having extreme measures.

In recent weeks, our R has remained about 1 (of course, to an extent this may have been false because of testing issues..). If we had started from a lower base, then we would have maintained at this low base (as many other countries seemed to have managed to without draconian measures). As we chose to go ahead with very wide opening at a point when our case rate was very high, we are stuck in an endless cycle of high cases.

@mrshoho the goalposts have moved - we are no longer trying to prevent people from getting it. We will all. It's impossible to avoid forever.

There is a crowd that want restrictions forever but if you look at the thread I started on a winter wedding, you'll see I was very much in the minority to consider any coming back.

Patients in hospital comparison:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

(Apologies for putting them the wrong way round in the last post.)

@PrincessNutNuts

Patients in hospital comparison:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

(Apologies for putting them the wrong way round in the last post.)

That’s a big leap in the first and steady in second?

[quote weddingguestdec]@PrincessNutNuts it was rising in 2020 - it's barely changed in your 2021 screen shot....[/quote]
Numbers are higher earlier this year, and the rate of doubling seems slower.

But we don't really know with any precision because of the private lab negligence with the testing.

[quote weddingguestdec]@mrshoho the goalposts have moved - we are no longer trying to prevent people from getting it. We will all. It's impossible to avoid forever.

There is a crowd that want restrictions forever but if you look at the thread I started on a winter wedding, you'll see I was very much in the minority to consider any coming back.[/quote]
Are we just writing off the clinically extremely vulnerable, and the unvaccinated then?

@PrincessNutNuts it's v hard for CV. Covid isn't going away so they will need to make choices based on their own personal risk.

If you can be vaccinated and have chosen not to be, then that's your gamble.

I think the total no. in hospital is what we need to watch.

[quote weddingguestdec]@mrshoho the goalposts have moved - we are no longer trying to prevent people from getting it. We will all. It's impossible to avoid forever.

There is a crowd that want restrictions forever but if you look at the thread I started on a winter wedding, you'll see I was very much in the minority to consider any coming back.[/quote]
The thing is, in a country with a hundred infections per day per million (see graph posted above), yes, theoretically everyone will get it but the spread will be very slow and the chances are that each year / wave many will never meet anyone with Covid to become infected.

Whereas because we (uniquely) insist that 600+ infections per million is 'unavoidable', there is every chance that everyone will get it every year.

We have been brainwashed into thinking that 'endemic' means' at incredibly high levels'. Just because norovirus is endemic doesn't mean that everyone has to have it regularly - just that we cannot eliminate it completely so some people will have it sometimes.

@cantkeepawayforever how do keep cases low without living with restrictions/ mitigations forever?

Apply restrictions for a period to bring infections right down (proper track and trace needed, and proper mitigations in schools).

Vaccinate everyone. And i do mean everyone, right down to the lowest age that the vaccination is approved for.

Release.

[quote weddingguestdec]@cantkeepawayforever how do keep cases low without living with restrictions/ mitigations forever?[/quote]
Yes I’d like to know this as a double vaccinated person who has had a mild dose. We all thought vaccines where the way out of this but if all they do is lessen the symptoms then they are not the full answer. We can’t have school children missing a random 10 days of school every year because they catch covid. So we either stop insisting on isolation for healthy people or we mitigate in another way.

Ask Germany, Canada, France? As we have a case rate equal to the rest of Europe added together, then perhaps looking to see what they are doing might be fruitful?

@PrincessNutNuts

Patients in hospital comparison:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

(Apologies for putting them the wrong way round in the last post.)

Why is it worse now?🥴

[quote weddingguestdec]@PrincessNutNuts it's v hard for CV. Covid isn't going away so they will need to make choices based on their own personal risk.

If you can be vaccinated and have chosen not to be, then that's your gamble.

I think the total no. in hospital is what we need to watch.[/quote]
The total number in hospital with covid is a lagging indicator so by the time you think
It looks out of hand things have already been out of hand for some time.

But most importantly covid isn't the only thing hospitals need to deal with.

It's not even one of only five things hospitals have to deal with either, but it's clogging up 1/5 of the beds.

It would only take bad weather leading to an uptick in the people who have been waiting for hip and knee operations for two years to start having falls and winding up in hospital to create unsustainable pressure.

And that's just one small example.

There are unprecedented millions on the waiting lists.

And millions who should be.
^
The NHS isn't "coping".

It's having to put off it's normal workload because the policy of allowing and even encouraging high cases is keeping it too busy with covid to do it's normal workload.^

@cantkeepawayforever

Apply restrictions for a period to bring infections right down (proper track and trace needed, and proper mitigations in schools).

Vaccinate everyone. And i do mean everyone, right down to the lowest age that the vaccination is approved for.

Release.

What sort of restrictions though, for how long and how do you envisage these are going to be policed?

As for t&t plenty of threads on here with people saying turn off the ap. don't answer the phone. How are t&t to be effective if people won't engage or comply?

Vaccinate everyone. How? By force?

@cantkeepawayforever

Apply restrictions for a period to bring infections right down (proper track and trace needed, and proper mitigations in schools).

Vaccinate everyone. And i do mean everyone, right down to the lowest age that the vaccination is approved for.

Release.

I think a few on here would go for this but largely the public are fine with how it us

And if they do want to change their own behaviour they can

And what There posted

Why is it worse now?🥴

@Rosegoldfan

Higher cases.