Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@Quartz2208

The other thing with exponential growth is that if the missing cases go back awhile then actually the numbers of the previous weeks would be up and therefore a different growth?

Yes.

If the downturn was fake because this affects many more than 43,000 tests (one day at current numbers) then so is the dramatic upturn.

It may well be more of a continuing steady rise over a longer period.

That’s true. We’ll only really know in hindsight what they shape of the graph was - unless UKHSA have uncovered / are going to uncover facts showing exactly how many samples were wrongly reported. Which entirely depends on what was going wrong.

I guess we'll probably never really know because we won't know how many cases could have been avoided if people had been told to isolate.

I would say that the lab issue has caused it either way. I would say that the exponential growth is very much based on the drop which is likely to be an artificial one in part due to the negative case issue. In hindsight it always did seem unlikely. Then there will be some growth caused by people thinking they are negative and spreading it around.

A continuing steady fluctuation between 35-45k cases a day makes more sense

Where is it rising?

Feels odd as it’s falling in so many areas here

My area is falling again too after a couple of weeks rising.

And the lab that screwed up 43,000 pcr tests had only been in existence for 4 months when it was given a £119 million contract.

bylinetimes.com/2020/11/09/119-million-covid-19-testing-contract-four-month-old-gene-analysis-firm/

@MarshaBradyo

Where is it rising?

Feels odd as it’s falling in so many areas here

It's definitely rising where I am. We are just over 300 per 100k for the city but its on the way up. We have never really had as many cases as other places so it has a lot of children to infect. Our school is not bad yet but it's starting to work it's way through other schools now.

@MarshaBradyo

Where is it rising?

Feels odd as it’s falling in so many areas here

I think the question should be, where isn't it rising? This graph is this week compared to last week for all English subregions. Areas in the grey triangle are rising. (RP131)

The answer....Herefordshire.

The answer to that is likely London

See yellow in mass of red

Maybe a higher level of immunity is helping?

My area London

And little change for Warwickshire and Leicestershire.

This is London as a whole. Obviously smaller areas within will vary.

I wonder where it’s rising I’ve checked a few and they look the similar

Maybe in N or E

Parts of London are showing very different infection rates. Some West London boroughs are showing increases and a much higher rate. These are areas of previously high rates so not sure immunity levels are the reason. Hounslow has risen sharply including the over 60 age age group.

This is Hounslow and Richmond Upon Thames.

This is Elmbridge 592 per 100000 currently.

So different to SE London

Well my area and a few close by haven’t looked at many

Cheshire East average 586/100k my area is higher still.
The amount of purple on the gov.uk map is very worrying.

The Guardian have this graphic - some of which is blue @MarshaBradyo

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/20/covid-uk-coronavirus-cases-deaths-and-vaccinations-today

Unfortunately we have family in the Winchester and Hart areas (among others) where cases definitely aren't dropping.

Isn't this exactly what was expected to happen though? With schools returning with no social distancing or masks plus unvaccinated 12-15s, with the additional measure of allowing household members of positive cases to continue mixing? Now we are in the waiting game of whether cases lead to too many hospital admissions for the NHS.

@PrincessNutNuts

The Guardian have this graphic - some of which is blue *@MarshaBradyo*

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/20/covid-uk-coronavirus-cases-deaths-and-vaccinations-today

Unfortunately we have family in the Winchester and Hart areas (among others) where cases definitely aren't dropping.

Thanks for this I was thinking back to the charts that showed the rate of change in briefings so you just linked to it.

It was expected but I’m wondering why some are blue (like mine) and what that means will happen next.

I think vaccination rates look similar b/n say Southwark and Hounslow

@mrshoho "With schools returning with no social distancing or masks plus unvaccinated 12-15s, with the additional measure of allowing household members of positive cases to continue mixing?"

All the above didn't prevent previous waves and school closures.

We are currently way, way below hospitalisations then previous waves. Just have to hope it stays manageable.