Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

999 replies

boys3 · 26/09/2021 17:54

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

OP posts:
Thread gallery
200
lonelyplanet · 15/10/2021 18:12

This is a really interesting explanation as to what's been going on with the data due to the false negative pcrs:
mobile.twitter.com/ArtySmokesPS/status/1448927559970967556

Bizawit · 15/10/2021 18:57

@lonelyplanet @PrincessNutNuts as boyz has already pointed out one issue with this graph is that the data is presented by report rate and not by specimen date (the latter being more accurate as an estimate of growth). There are many ways to graphically represent the current data which show absolutely no indications of an exponential trend.

Piggywaspushed · 15/10/2021 19:07

Some interesting comparative graphs and discussion in here:

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/15/why-britons-are-tolerating-sky-high-covid-rates-and-why-this-may-not-last

Bizawit · 15/10/2021 19:46

[quote Piggywaspushed]Some interesting comparative graphs and discussion in here:

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/15/why-britons-are-tolerating-sky-high-covid-rates-and-why-this-may-not-last[/quote]
Given vastly different testing regimes, I really do think the only meaningful cross country comparisons look at excess mortality. I haven’t seen one of those for a long while, actually. Would be interested!

PrincessNutNuts · 15/10/2021 20:02

[quote Bizawit]**@lonelyplanet* @PrincessNutNuts* as boyz has already pointed out one issue with this graph is that the data is presented by report rate and not by specimen date (the latter being more accurate as an estimate of growth). There are many ways to graphically represent the current data which show absolutely no indications of an exponential trend.[/quote]
That's why it's seven day averages plotted on a log scale.

Those other ways of showing the data that don't show what's been happening very recently are of less use in the immediate term.

As the professor says "plotted on a log scale because exponentials."

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
lonelyplanet · 15/10/2021 20:02

[quote Bizawit]**@lonelyplanet* @PrincessNutNuts* as boyz has already pointed out one issue with this graph is that the data is presented by report rate and not by specimen date (the latter being more accurate as an estimate of growth). There are many ways to graphically represent the current data which show absolutely no indications of an exponential trend.[/quote]
Well here's another based on the ons data. Still a straight line.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
Notmulan · 15/10/2021 20:14

Funny @Bizawit I read the same article (which I thought was interesting and good) and immediately Googled excess death stats . Perhaps something we’re now “normalised” to do is to understand how many die each day. In the city of London a re insurance company had a “death counter “ running outside is head office, I think it was meant to encourage people to think about insurance and it definitely put more footfall into the church next door. But at the time (9 years ago) it was shocking to consider those statistics. now I think we’re sadly more aware of how many die each year , day and so the next reaction we have is “is that excessive?”. That’s really a rather depressing thought. I hope I don’t get numbed to statistics

sirfredfredgeorge · 15/10/2021 20:16

I haven’t seen one of those for a long while, actually. Would be interested!

We're only up to late September here, and I think the UK seems to have been the fastest, The Economist is till updating their thing.

The real interesting thing in the UK stats I think is the sustained excess deaths at home, why aren't people going to hospital? There's good news in the excess death in the elderly during this exit wave, it isn't that high, but excess deaths in younger age groups are higher, and quite a bit above the covid mentioned on certificate deaths.

www.gov.uk/government/statistics/excess-mortality-in-england-weekly-reports

Bizawit · 15/10/2021 20:23

@Notmulan

Funny *@Bizawit* I read the same article (which I thought was interesting and good) and immediately Googled excess death stats . Perhaps something we’re now “normalised” to do is to understand how many die each day. In the city of London a re insurance company had a “death counter “ running outside is head office, I think it was meant to encourage people to think about insurance and it definitely put more footfall into the church next door. But at the time (9 years ago) it was shocking to consider those statistics. now I think we’re sadly more aware of how many die each year , day and so the next reaction we have is “is that excessive?”. That’s really a rather depressing thought. I hope I don’t get numbed to statistics
But we don’t understand how many people die everyday. We’ve become fixated on counting covid-associated/ adjacent deaths and it’s so meaningless, because there’s so little contextualisation of the numbers. That’s what I find personally interesting. I don’t think we are becoming normalised to death at all, in fact I think the political dynamics of this crisis are better understood when we consider the fact that we are, in general, a very “death-denying” society.
Bizawit · 15/10/2021 20:24

[quote sirfredfredgeorge]I haven’t seen one of those for a long while, actually. Would be interested!

We're only up to late September here, and I think the UK seems to have been the fastest, The Economist is till updating their thing.

The real interesting thing in the UK stats I think is the sustained excess deaths at home, why aren't people going to hospital? There's good news in the excess death in the elderly during this exit wave, it isn't that high, but excess deaths in younger age groups are higher, and quite a bit above the covid mentioned on certificate deaths.

www.gov.uk/government/statistics/excess-mortality-in-england-weekly-reports[/quote]
Ah yes, I’ve been following the Uk excess mortality figures, I meant I haven’t seen a cross -
Country analysis for a while..

Bizawit · 15/10/2021 20:27

The sustained excess deaths at home is really interesting and concerning..

Quartz2208 · 15/10/2021 20:32

But how much of that straight line is caused by underreporting - the drop down in effect creates the straight line back up.

Until the full effect of the PCR tests wrongly reported I dont think we can definitively say one way or another

mrshoho · 15/10/2021 20:41

One point on the deaths at home is a move towards more palliative care being offered in the home rather than in a hospice/hospital. In our borough this is something that is happening. Hospices have a limited number of beds and can reach more families by providing services in people's own homes with cooperation from NHS and Social Services. Most people when given the opportunity will choose to be at home if at all possible as opposed to bring in a hospital.

Bizawit · 15/10/2021 21:16

@mrshoho

One point on the deaths at home is a move towards more palliative care being offered in the home rather than in a hospice/hospital. In our borough this is something that is happening. Hospices have a limited number of beds and can reach more families by providing services in people's own homes with cooperation from NHS and Social Services. Most people when given the opportunity will choose to be at home if at all possible as opposed to bring in a hospital.
Surely this should be part of a more gradual long term trend though? Or has there been a sudden shift with the pandemic?
mrshoho · 15/10/2021 21:32

It does appear to be more of a sudden shift as when you look at the hospice deaths there has been fewer deaths than would have been expected throughout the pandemic period. I suppose it ties in with NHS hospital drive to free up beds. I personally know of heart failure and COPD patients who were discharged home on a palliative care pathway. In my opinion a much better death than in a hospital ward with limited visiting etc.

MRex · 15/10/2021 21:33

@Notmulan

Funny *@Bizawit* I read the same article (which I thought was interesting and good) and immediately Googled excess death stats . Perhaps something we’re now “normalised” to do is to understand how many die each day. In the city of London a re insurance company had a “death counter “ running outside is head office, I think it was meant to encourage people to think about insurance and it definitely put more footfall into the church next door. But at the time (9 years ago) it was shocking to consider those statistics. now I think we’re sadly more aware of how many die each year , day and so the next reaction we have is “is that excessive?”. That’s really a rather depressing thought. I hope I don’t get numbed to statistics
600,000 to 700,000 people die in the UK each year. On the current trend it's about 40,000 from covid. A proportion will have naive immune systems (that'll run out, eventually everyone will have been vaccinated or had covid), a proportion will be people who would have died of something else, and only then do we have true long-term excess deaths. A new illness that's endemic possibly will reduce life expectancy until drugs catch up. While all those people are loved and will be missed, I'm yet to be convinced that the additional losses will be that high.

Now long covid, that's potentially a bigger issue. We just don't know how much vaccination will affect that. Nor even how it really is long term regardless, there simply hasn't been enough time.

So personally, I find anything focusing on just cases or just deaths somewhat lacking.

JanglyBeads · 15/10/2021 22:12

The lab issue - is there no QC in the system at all?? See also the Excel spreadsheet problem last autumn.

twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1449070566942588928?s=21

JanglyBeads · 16/10/2021 00:55

A report from Scotland a year ago about Matt Hancock rejecting offers of help from the Institute of BioMedical Scientists
www.sundaypost.com/fp/revealed-how-health-secretary-snubbed-expertise-of-uks-laboratory-scientists-after-mistaking-their-professional-body-for-a-private-firm/

lonelyplanet · 16/10/2021 09:06

The latest variants of concern technical briefing (25) is out but proving quite difficult to find.

There is a link to the pdf within this interesting Friday report from the covid-19 actuaries response group:
www.covid-arg.com/post/the-friday-report-issue-53

The sublineage AY.4.2 is probably one to keep an eye on:

"New sublineages of Delta are regularly identified and designated. One recently designated
sublineage, AY.4.2, is not yet assigned by the Pangolin tool and therefore is not represented in
Figure 10. This sublineage is currently increasing in frequency. It includes spike mutations
A222V and Y145H. In the week beginning 27 September 2021 (the last week with complete
sequencing data), this sublineage accounted for approximately 6% of all sequences generated,
on an increasing trajectory. This estimate may be imprecise due to known sequencing issues
affecting position S:145. Further assessment is underway."

alreadytaken · 16/10/2021 09:35

lelivre. Delta produces a higher viral load. A higher viral load produces a more powerful immune response. An Indian ICMR study found 4.5% reinfection rate in an early study (my bookmark no longer works, you'll have to find it yourself), the reinfection rate in this study, after Delta, was 1.2% timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/pune/reinfection-rare-immunity-lasting-in-those-who-contracted-covid-19-finds-city-study/articleshow/84250238.cms

That doesnt prove anything, but it's indicative. More to it than that but the interesting thing is why Iranian data is at odds with reinfection rates elsewhere. This is another study, from Denmark, showing low reinfection rates www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00575-4/fulltext

and an Italian study but pre-Delta, reinfection probably increased jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2780557

alreadytaken · 16/10/2021 09:37

btw I have tagging notifications turned off, they are pointless.

Lelivre · 16/10/2021 13:26

Thanks I will read that later. I rather hope you are correct. I believe there is emerging evidence re T cell and vax, that is vax is showing as better (higher for longer) but which variant that is - I cannot recall. I guess it’s a bit early to say about Delta in any case. I believe Singapore is seeing a delta variant now, I haven’t read the information properly as yet, I think their vax rate is good not sure about prior infections.
I very much hope that what you are saying is correct because a succession of infections is something very difficult to wear. I do not understand enough about immune response as yet but I believe antibodies are not as robust (more lock/key) as T cell response against variants and that’s what we need for resilience against coronavirus variants according to current thinking. However I am not qualified to say for sure. We are about to find out, no doubt.

lonelyplanet · 16/10/2021 16:27

It is still rising exponentially possibly even steeper today.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
weddingguestdec · 16/10/2021 16:29

@lonelyplanet less cases than over the past few days though?

Swipe left for the next trending thread