Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@herecomesthsun

Boys, I am puzzled that your 1st graph shows London admissions falling and the last graph shows London admissions rising. Have I misunderstood something?

@herecomesthsun; I see where you are coming from. The last graph is the weekly percentage change in the seven day average. The much shorter time period should show this more clearly. seven day average of 76 on 1st October as opposed to 77 on 8th October.

So the third graph shows a slowing in the pace of the London fall. I would probably have been better to show it as a column rather than line - improved London version attached.

Checking in...

@WinoAnon France has roughly 309 hospitalizations a day as compare with our 850 which is roughly in line with the deaths as well 48 to 111 (roughly a 1/3)

So I would say that we are picking up far more cases - due to our massive LFT testing thing which picks up asymptomatic cases

Hi MRex I’d been wondering where you were, hope things are OK for you and yours?

Is France not very similar to UK on terms size, some big cities,highly density areas like Paris and similar weather / climate..

The last wave there they had 40k cases a day hut think that was when Europe was in grip of Alpha wave not delta.

Has most Europe had their wave of delta as baffled why UK so severely effected by delta.

Another question is will covid burn out with greater levels vaccinated or will it continually evolve and mutate.
Why did delta take off but beta south Africa dident.
What I'm wondering is should be expect a new varient to emerge?
Maybe every 6months?

This is interesting tweet.
No idea how hes arranging the data but says early warning that over 65s increase.
How effective is vaccines in 65plus.
Is pfizer more effective than AZ.
Are we getting very far or very quickly with booster programme.
Will over 50s and groups 1 to 9 always need 2 jabs a year and everyone else annual?

twitter.com/alexselby1770/status/1447236422814085128?s=20

@JanglyBeads

Hi MRex I’d been wondering where you were, hope things are OK for you and yours?

Yes thanks, we've just been getting on with taking DS to all the things he missed out on over the pandemic, plus work, etc etc. Happy rather than sad absence and lost this thread for a bit. Are you well?

New Covid variant could be to blame for positive lateral flow tests followed by negative PCR
from the i.
I think it had been mentioned here a little while ago...

Thanks MRex, yes apart from having just had Covid! I wasn’t too bad but DS14 is still hone on day 18, just not right. And now DD16 has symptoms.

@pussycatlickinglollyices - I now also know someone in that position in London. DH positive, LFT positive, all symptoms, negative PCR.

I hope they both get well soon @JanglyBeads. Take care you don't push yourself immediately after recovery, so you don't overdo it.

I've heard of a few Positive LFTs negative tests.

I've also heard of a few completely negative tests but symptomatic and close contacts with positive cases.

There is a hell of a lot about just now though. My youngest is ill for the 1st time in nearly 2 years and they are dropping like flies in school. I don't think Covid is in the school that much yet. But lots of other bugs are. It's definitely not Covid in his case.

DfE inviting schools to take part in a QA study of LFTs …. it will take some weeks!

twitter.com/kit_yates_maths/status/1447959388350779400?s=21

spec date graphic for England

Looking at the additional cases in England for Saturday, Sunday and Monday spec dates as reported today, and then comparing with the same reporting last Tuesday for Sat 2nd to Mon 4th October.

The graphic breaks this down by:

actual case increase by age band

• almost 11,500 additional cases in the most recent period as compared with the same period last week (as per the earlier spec date graphic)

• 2258 in the 10-!4 age group
• 1118 in the 5-9 group

increase in percentage terms

• showing the biggest percentage increases are in the 55 to 85 age bands,
• particularly so in the 65-85s all upwards of 40%, though in the context of a lower starting point,
• the overall increase is 21%;

Any narrative for why the dip and then some degree of increase?

Bit concerning having an increase in the older age groups.

this then splits the overall case total for 2nd to 4th Oct as reported last Tuesday and that for Saturday to Monday as reported today by age band plus sex.

The left hand graphic is last week, and right hand the most recent.

Not much movement between the weeks and relatively even in the school age groups. We'd expect some imbalance in the very oldest groups, given the actual split by age band.

20-40s around 60% of cases female.

slight drop for 45-49s, though still around 50%

50s-69s imbalance but by much less,

Then a tilt to males in the 70-79s

finally looking at the week on week increase by age band and sex, again just comparing Sat-Mon, and at the equivalent reporting point.

The numbers for 90+m are of course relatively small. So 23 additional cases as shown earlier; 18 of these female and 5 males; hence the 78% of the increase being female cases.

45-49s stands out; 834 additional cases as shown by the earlier graph, of which almost two-thirds female.

back to geography , these are the 25 councils with the highest rate (to Sunday 10th, so using a two day lag for that.

Trafford remains highest.

Kettering starting to see a fall in rate, although still 7th highest but with a rate just under 700 per 100,000 rather than just over 1000 per 100,000 seen in the week ending 26th September.

then 26-50; and 51 to 75; largely covering off the top quartile.

at the other end the 25 councils with the lowest current rate. A lot of Inner London representation.

then two tables showing the rest of the lowest quartile.

This includes the likes of Leicester, Bolton, Blackburn, Manchester and Birmingham

@Quartz2208 thanks for that. Crazy just how big a gulf there is with testing. Things are far from perfect here but I do hate how other countries are held up on a pedestal when there are failings everywhere.

Crikey
We're 23rd, and not in a good way. Lucky we're still only shopping a couple of times a week when it's quiet I suppose.

Boys3 do you think the areas that are higher now are higher because they've not really seen that much infection during the previous "waves" iyswim?
Also thanks again for all the stats and number crunching even if I don't entirely "get" it

@boys3 - did any tables get missed? SW London mid-table can't be located...

@mrex I only posted the tables for the top and bottom quartiles. So half of all councils will be missing.

just three for London

Kingston 199th, 351.7

Hounslow 174th, 375.7

Richmond 171st 379.0