Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

In addition to multiple (adult) colleagues going back into work after +LTF and negative PCR. My friend is now in hospital 40s. 6 strong LTF, negative at drive through, + on postal. We now have strong LTFs in here too.

Anecdotal or not, something is very wrong in the southwest and it’s making people ill. The quicker they sort it the better.

I saw Prof Sarah Gilbert and Dr Cath Green talk at an excellent event today.

They briefly touched on the very small risk of myocarditis and the AZ vaccine consequently not being used here for younger cohorts. Prof Gilbert said that myocarditis following the vaccine is not seen at all in the global south and therefore can be used there across all age groups.

That might seem peculiar, but there was a similar situation with the swine flu jab triggering narcolepsy in certain populations (Sweden & Finland?) There is felt to be a genetic explanation but no-one has completely untangled it yet.

The inews were the first to break this story, so although it’s not entirely clear from this article today whether they actually have new info (and in one sentence they refer to false neg LFTs when they mean false pos LFTs) I thought it warranted posting:

inews.co.uk/news/politics/new-covid-variant-positive-lateral-flow-tests-followed-negative-pcr-1243356?ITO=newsnow&fbclid=IwAR3KZuvO46CsvPY2FQlolS4BKBQMxPxlDxRy2dSrjhi2vpkd95VBnslamfA

@YoshimisMum I’m pretty sure it’s not.

But maybe will be now?? (If that’s possible?)

@YoshimisMum

Does anyone know if geonome sequencing is undertaken on negative PCR tests. Just wondering how new variants are detected if not.

How can you do genome testing on a virus which isn't present?

Because there might be another virus present, was my thinking?

cases increase by council area in England. This takes the data published today for spec dates w/e 10th October (eg up to yesterday) as compared with the figure reported last Monday for w/e 3rd October. These are not therefore fully complete weeks, but rather an equivalent point comparison.

These are shown as the absolute change in the number of cases; so population size needs to be considered.

An extra 26,000 or so cases, or just under 16%. This is the regional split, based on the published data.

Important places first.

London left hand column Inner Boroughs and right hand Outer

East of England; some big increases in Suffolk; East Suffolk and Ipswich in particular.

East Midlands ; on a positive whilst Kettering's current rate per100,000 is still one of the highest in England, it may be turning the corner based on the drop in cases. Although South Northants ; East Northants and Wellingborough all show significant increases. Corby flat.

Leicester showing a slight decline ; and although not shown its 7 day rate would put it the lower third of council areas.

North East - not many councils, but all up

North West again mainly increases; with some quite significant numbers.

South East, lots of people so lots of councils. Almost all increasing.

South West

where the question will be asked are the falls really falls.

In the case of Mendip which had quite a spike last week, very likely yes. More about the SW in a bit.

West Midlands

finally Yorkshire and the Humber

@JanglyBeads

Because there might be another virus present, was my thinking?

There almost certainly would be another virus present assuming the person was feeling ill. It won't be a variant of Covid though, and as far as I am aware there isn't any other virus hospitalising people all over the world at the same rate covid is, so why do genome testing.

@titchy
Apologies - perhaps I’m not explaining my question properly. I’m referring to the current phenomenon of positive LFT then producing a negative PCR test. If there is a new variant that evades the PCR test what ‘triggers’ geonome sequencing if there is a new variant?
It has happened before -
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-variant-france-can-evade-tests-2021-3%3famp

I think in one of the articles I read about the Breton variant in March, which couldn’t be detected by PCR, it referred to other blood tests which could be carried out in hospital for seriously ill patients who presented as having Covid despite testing negative on conventional tests.

Titchy, I’m well aware that we are not currently aware of any other virus - or variant of SARS COV 2 - which is causing the same awful effects as Covid. But we don’t know what we don’t know.

Back to the South West, and recognising that somewhere like Swindon is nearer York than it is to Penzance; so a degree of caution needed with regional level conclusions.

This is hospital admissions for England, the SW and to provide another regional comparator, London. London of course is geographically much smaller; significantly bigger in terms of population; and with a younger demographic.

The main two graphs go from 1st Aug to the latest data published.

The first shows the 7 day average for admissions. England showing a very slight upward movement in the last few days, but at just above 600 is some way from the close to 800 seen in last week August and into early September.

London and the SW are both on the secondary y-axis, with the 7 day average for the SW just passing that for London in the last reported day or so. The first time, as the second graph shows, this has happened since the start of the pandemic.

The final graph shows the percentage movement since 1st Aug in the seven day average. With a more rapid trajectory shown in the SW in recent days.

Boys, I am puzzled that your 1st graph shows London admissions falling and the last graph shows London admissions rising. Have I misunderstood something?

Do we count zoe tracker symptoms as data as local council say 869 new cases last 7days and zoe says over 4k thats some variation.

Not data. The app itself describes their figures as “incidence estimates”.

Just looking at covid cases and daily fatalities in France and I'm confused. They are getting about 30 deaths per day but cases are just over 1000. Our deaths average just over 100 per day and cases between 30-40k per day and has been for a while.

It's hard to know which is disproportionately low - UK's deaths or France's cases