Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

And I have just received a positive for her after posting the results yesterday!

Are the numbers actually the numbers for the last couple of days? Aren’t they more like 41k (circa), as Wales figures haven’t been added? Getting very confused!

I'm n DDs class (year 5), she's one of four who haven't tested positive yet. Of those who have tested positive, the vast majority were asymptomatic and had repeated negative LFTs before their positive PCRs (which they have all been asked to do as close contacts). Seems the opposite of above?

I don't think she has been convicted of anything yet so I think you probably shouldn't say that yet.

I agree that the idea that someone has done something malicious shouldn't ever be ruled out though. And the implications for the data are considerable if this is happening significantly often - not just positive cases missed, but extra positives due to transmission that wouldn't have happened if they'd been picked up.

@Drowninginpoo

I'm n DDs class (year 5), she's one of four who haven't tested positive yet. Of those who have tested positive, the vast majority were asymptomatic and had repeated negative LFTs before their positive PCRs (which they have all been asked to do as close contacts). Seems the opposite of above?

That's not unexpected Drowning. PCRs are substantially more sensitive than LFTs so negative LFT followed by positive PCR is perfectly normal and doesn't require any special explanation.

Positive LFT followed by negative PCR is more unexpected. PCRs still miss a fair few cases and LFTs do get the odd false positive so you'd expect it to happen occasionally, but anecdotally some towns in the South West have been seeing it unexpectedly often.

Surely not anecdotal if UKHSA are investigating.

Wow hadn’t thought about possibility of a saboteur! I think a threat to the integrity of the Data is appropriate to be discussed here, although we obviously don’t want to wander off into wild speculation!

Even if you don't wander off to conspiracy land, the option to have a few batches of spoiled chemicals is also an option. Couple that with maybe some low level negligence and you have a perfect way to create the scenario that we have now.

It started with anecdotes as many great medical discoveries did. But now we've seen suspicious changes in the LFT to PCR conversion ratio and unexpectedly steep drop-offs in PCR positive rates in certain towns. Something's going on - but what?

The public age band are, as many have said, not ideal particularly with the 10-14s crossing primary and secondary; and 15-19s covering both school / sixth form and those that have left school.

However the latest, five day lag position for the seven day rate per 100,000 for every council in England for the 10-14 age group.

Batches of 50 highest to lowest.

Kettering still has the highest 10-14 rate at just over 4,000 per 100,000 ; or 273 cases over that seven day period.

Followed by Barrow, South Lakeland, Derbyshire Dales, and Stratford-upon-Avon; all over 3,500 per 100,000.

Amber Valley, Trafford, Daventry, North Lincolnshire and Wellingborough make up the ten councils with the highest rates, with these five ranging from 3451 to 3319.

the lower 150.

and finally those with the lowest rates.

Includes 6 London Boroughs

and of course the likes of Swale

These tables of course only provide a single point snapshot, direction of travel clearly a critical factor to be added in due course.

Spiegelhalter and Masters

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/10/covid-by-numbers-10-key-lessons-separating-fact-from-fiction

worth a peruse; and maybe for some with the season of goodwill fast approaching the complete book could be a handy stocking filler. guardianbookshop.com/covid-by-numbers-9780241547731 also available from other retailers

Read @gruntbaby ‘s highly informed explanations and theories on the LFT/PCR issue on this thread - pp2/3 I think

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4371384-LF-test-and-PCR-test?pg=3

twitter.com/jneill/status/1447543126684491779?s=21

Not sure how important a source of info this was re the myocarditis fears?

The preprint was published after the JCVI advice on 12-15 (16th vs 3rd Sept), so I can't see how it was very relevant to decision making here.

Bit of a bigger bump in case numbers today. Not great for a Monday.. 🤦🏼‍♀️

@Bizawit I've been thinking recently that Monday is not as low comparatively as they used to be!

[quote weddingweird]@Bizawit I've been thinking recently that Monday is not as low comparatively as they used to be![/quote]
Yes that’s true, I started to slightly notice that too. I wonder why? 🤔

@Bizawit not sure and (I have too much time on my hands clearly) Wednesday seems to be the new Tuesday when it comes to the 'bumper catch up day'

Basically if it's not headline news on the DM and Nanny hasn't posted, I think meh. Ebbs and flows! 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻

[quote weddingweird]@Bizawit not sure and (I have too much time on my hands clearly) Wednesday seems to be the new Tuesday when it comes to the 'bumper catch up day'

Basically if it's not headline news on the DM and Nanny hasn't posted, I think meh. Ebbs and flows! 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻[/quote]
😂😂😂 very true and wise observations all around.

today's spec date graphic for England

Good point re date of paper sirfred!

Does anyone know if geonome sequencing is undertaken on negative PCR tests. Just wondering how new variants are detected if not.