Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Isn't it the SW where speculation about inaccurate PCRs has been raised/LFT anomaly? I know Swindon is the least SW bit of the SW, but it still is just. Wonder what lab their tests go to.

boys3 I don't suppose you have anything for Cheshire East clutches at straws It's an odd area as those who live in Nantwich/Crewe are unlikely to encounter those from the "golden triangle" footballers or Macclesfield.

Yes the recent speculation about positive LFTs/negative PCRs has specifically focussed on Swindon. Boys' data does seem to back up the "false negative PCRs" hypothesis.

Here's that spec date graph (just England)

Gloucester was also an anomaly in the BBC graph I was looking at yesterday - the only patch of blue in a sea of red and orange.

Again, a SW area potentially affected by the false negative PCR issues.

Isn't it the SW where speculation about inaccurate PCRs has been raised/LFT anomaly? I know Swindon is the least SW bit of the SW, but it still is just. Wonder what lab their tests go to.

speculation being the key word here.

To which devoid of hard evidence we could also add.

I am not sure that I buy the 'cross reacting with the coronavirus' theory if exactly the same areas have strangely low patterns of Covid 19 infection at the same time.

Cheltenham - similar area - had a 'fall off a cliff' moment on 7 day rolling rates a couple of weeks back, again coincident with wide anecdotal positive lft / negative PCR stories.

I appreciate that this is anecdote at present. However a repeated pattern of 'positive lft, negative drive through pcr, positive postal pcr' based within a geographical area, coincident with anomalously low rates, seems at least worthy of further investigation - which does now seem to be happening.

As I live in the SW, I would certainly hesitate between choosing a postal and drive through PCR at present.

@pussycatlickinglollyices

boys3 I don't suppose you have anything for Cheshire East clutches at straws It's an odd area as those who live in Nantwich/Crewe are unlikely to encounter those from the "golden triangle" footballers or Macclesfield.

Higher than Cheshire West, but at not too far over the 500 per 100,000 rate not among the very highest. Although there around around 270 councils with a lower current rate.

I didn’t know that anyone had claimed there was a pattern of postal PCRs more often producing positives than test centre PCRs, who has said that?

Its 10-14 rate has I’m tempted to say collapsed

This is what happens if you don't catch that many cases and have few measures, a short period of high rates, and then a collapse. Are Swindon secondary schools not very covid bubble-y - I'm pretty sure they all had in person open days and no masks which suggest not.

On the testing of 5-9year olds, the ONS say the 9 year old rate is ~5% and the 44 year old rate is ~1% in England *
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-who-had-covid-19
but the coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England
has 5-9 and 40-45 year olds at basically the same number, so the cases in the daily stats are detecting a different proportion for sure. Obviously difficult to split up because the cases are reported with different age bands.

Also, how are ONS modelling for different duration of detection? A very mild case (much more likely in under 9's we're told) is likely to be detectable in nose/throat swabs for considerably shorter time than a more significant case.

@boys3

Isn't it the SW where speculation about inaccurate PCRs has been raised/LFT anomaly? I know Swindon is the least SW bit of the SW, but it still is just. Wonder what lab their tests go to.

speculation being the key word here.

To which devoid of hard evidence we could also add.

It actually really isn’t. Not when it is so prevalent in an area/workplaces that everyone is having an issue with it. Which is why it’s being investigated. As someone who lives in an are affected and works in an area affected. It’s, very, very real.

I wish people who didn’t live in these areas and aren’t actually seeing the issue first hand, would stop dismissing a very real problem. It’s hitting schools hard because Covid positive people are still mixing and end up getting a positive days later, usually via post.

I am not sure that I buy the 'cross reacting with the coronavirus' theory if exactly the same areas have strangely low patterns of Covid 19 infection at the same time

Unless the other coronavirus can out compete covid?

@JanglyBeads

I didn’t know that anyone had claimed there was a pattern of postal PCRs more often producing positives than test centre PCRs, who has said that?

In my area it goes like this:

Get positive lft, get postal PCR - universally positive PCR.

Get positive lft, get drive through PCR - very large proportion of negative PCR even with symptoms.

Gt positive lft, negative drive-through PCR then get a postal one because of continued symptoms (or because another member of the family goes down) - postal PCR almost universally positive.

It's definitely a pattern, which is affecting a limited geographical area quite significantly.

There are obviously two factors changing - time after infection and processing lab - in the observed pattern. I think the latter islikely to be more significant due to the strong geographical link (when I did a postal PCR, my test was processed in Halifax!)

Ah, that’s interesting @cantkeepawayforever.

@sirfredfredgeorge there has been some research published to show that other coronaviruses give some protection against Covid hasn’t there? Will see if I can find it.

@boys3 I posted on here the other Day with the Anecdata that in my kids year group of 40, 30 have Covid. (I thought it was 31 but one is off to avoid Covid).

All cases were in an 8 day period. Surely the cases are going to collapse after that. Maybe Swindon was similar.

Apparently other local schools are struggling too. And we have classes of 20,
Ventilation, very spaced out kids and masks on teachers.

@Itisasecret let me repeat myself devoid of hard evidence. Which, as much as the anecdote devotees might dislike it, really is the current position. The investigation may identify a genuine and real issue just don’t be surprised when it doesn’t.

As for not living in the area I’d suggest detachment and objectivity are rather more important attributes for a data thread.

[quote boys3]**@Itisasecret* let me repeat myself devoid of hard evidence*. Which, as much as the anecdote devotees might dislike it, really is the current position. The investigation may identify a genuine and real issue just don’t be surprised when it doesn’t.

As for not living in the area I’d suggest detachment and objectivity are rather more important attributes for a data thread.[/quote]
I’m aware it’s a data thread. It doesn’t mean you should be dismissive of a very real issue. When let’s face it, you don’t have any experience of, clearly. Despite all the fancy links and bolding of data.

If there wasn’t hard evidence, PHE wouldn’t be investigating. They are because there is.

Thank you Boys3
and thanks for all the colourful graphs they are much appreciated from my little bit of CE

I do think UKHSA can probably see pretty obvious evidence for them to have announced they’re investigating.

Is it one lab that is the issue or more? Could see someone accidentally or deliberately saying it is negative

Not sure what you mean by your second sentence Quartz?

I live in Swindon and I know a lot of children and some adults testing positive in LFTs and then negative on PCRs.
My dd included, and we have tested her with quite a few from different packs.