Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@wintertravel1980

Thanks for the age level breakdown by week, boys3. This is great analysis. I agree the result is inconclusive.

It still puzzles me that all the "older" age groups (even 25-29 year olds) went up at the same time and at a much higher rate than the previous week while cases in 10-14 year olds seem to have plateaued/stopped growing as rapidly. It might have been inter-generational spread or it might have been something else (e.g. a super spreading event as I have hypothesised).

The numbers for 5-9 year olds are probably the result of infections from siblings or school spread.

Let us see what next week brings. If we did indeed had a super spreading event last Thursday-Sunday (which might've not been the case), the numbers might start improving from Tue-Wed.

On a completely different note, booster program in England seems to be going much better than child vaccinations. 28% of 80s+ have now received their booster (based on the NHS Covid statistics website).

But logically wouldn't vaccinating teens have greater reduction in infections as imagine 80 plus don't socialise as much and are cautious. My parents late 60s both eligible boosters in Wales but not been called yet.

Surely they must have done some modelling on how much infection could be reduced if they could increase overall population had 2 jabs.

I don't understand how in adults 18plus 1 jab is 30% affective yet kids only have 1 as its assumed its a booster and they all had covid is a huge assumption.
Chris whitty even said the cases in schools will be high as we got rid if all mitigating safety measures as well as no isolating fir the unvaccinated under 18s.

Is there any data other countries for 5_9 and 10 to 19 category to compare to .
Why are kids in Europe have less cases.
Is it because they had 2 vaccines?
As at one point last year french schools were really bad.

I don't understand why people keep saying nearly all teenagers / kids already had covid my 4 kids havent.
July was the worst locally for my kids getting covid although this term theres lots undeclared cases..

I spoke to gp about getting covid jab there they say no has to be done in school which has no date.
Also lots anti vaxers outside of school another layer of stress.

Is there any data other countries for 5_9 and 10 to 19 category to compare to .
Why are kids in Europe have less cases.

Or they don't test? why are the UK rates in 5-9 and 0-4 not higher?

Our high rates are not just due to testing. The ONS data comes from random samples that indicate actual community rates.

My hypothesis back in the 'kids don' t catch it, schools are safe' times was that people don't test younger children as much and it gets increasingly difficult to get an accurate swab with a younger child.

I wouldn't ever bother testing my toddler, she's not at nursery yet and never goes anywhere without us, so is unlikely to catch it if we don't. If we're positive she isolates, so what benefit would testing her have?

Colleague has toddler at nursery, has had to test twice due to nursery contact, once with possible symptoms. Negative tests both times, but she was very dubious if the swab ever went anywhere near where it was supposed to be.

But logically wouldn't vaccinating teens have greater reduction in infections as imagine 80 plus don't socialise as much and are cautious.

If we assume that the only feasible future for Covid is endemicity (wide circulation along with flu and colds), our focus is no longer on reducing transmission - it shifts to managing healthcare capacity and improving outcomes for the maximum number of people. In this case, boosters for vulnerable individuals become much more important than 2 vaccine doses for teenagers.

I know many people (including respectable scientists) still hate the idea that every single person in the world will eventually catch Covid but in the hypothetical endemic scenario it will happen post vaccines and boosters so should only result in mild (really mild) illnesses in the vast majority of cases (as it is the case with other respiratory viruses).

Yes, the risk for immunocompromised individuals is higher but the 3 vaccine doses appear to significantly reduce it.

Every year of life increases our Covid risk by approximately 10-12% (risk of death from Covid doubles every 6-7 years) so with other things being equal catching Covid earlier in life (post vaccination for adults and teenagers) should produce the best possible outcome at the population level.

Our high rates are not just due to testing. The ONS data comes from random samples that indicate actual community rates

I didn't make any comment about that, I asked why our 5-9 and 0-4 rates are significantly below our 10-14 and 15-19 rates, what is different about those age group that means they we report so much lower rates of positivity.

If the assumption is that we catch cases evenly across age groups and that covid spreads easily in schools and families - what is the mechanism for massively lower rates in the younger age groups? My contention is that there is no mechanism it is simply different testing.

As to comparison with other countries, yes testing and changing behaviour of people when they're positive can have huge changes in the progress of the virus, but in the situation where "everyone is going to get it", what it does is have higher detected cases for longer.

On naïve modelling it would also increase the risk from waning immunity too, as it increases the period when you might meet more

Sorry Fred I misunderstood what you were saying.

I agree it is odd that 5 to 9s are much lower, they have been throughout. I do believe within families that they are tested less, this was especially true when whole families were isolating. There was no point in testing younger members if a family when they all had to stay home anyway. But the ons data backs up the fact that rates are lower in these age groups. Unless there is a problem with the way ons data is collected for younger children. I wouldn't know about this.

I find it a bit annoying that the ons grouping is in school years, but goes from age 2 to year 6 which includes preschool children. Other sources split them into 5-9 and 10-14. The 10-14 group includes some of year 5 and all year 6 children. It makes comparing quite difficult.

How high is hospitalisation and infection in 40 to 50 age group.
As this article claims kids hugh infecting this age group which most likely parents/ teachers even if they double vaxxed.
This age group won be eligible for 3rd boosters yet between kids and working they potentially more exposure risk to covid than a 80plus your old.
Do the risks suddenly increase from 49 when you turn 50?

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/englands-slow-vaccine-rollout-children-risks-new-covid-spike/

No idea about 5_9 is suspect lack of pcr testing and less symptoms so less easy to measure how many have covid.

@sirfredfredgeorge "why our 5-9 and 0-4 rates are significantly below our 10-14 and 15-19 rates,"

Just a guess but 0-4s in nursery are usually in much smaller groups and they don't mix as much with other classes. 5-9s often in smaller schools compaired to secondary and less likely to need public transport to get there.

Agree 10-14 catagory should be broken down. Difficult to get a clear picture with half of them in primary and the other half in secondary. Some eligible for vaccines but others not.

Oliver Johnson has had some further thoughts on the lft + pcr - thing. I don't follow all the mathematics but he thinks something unusual is going on.

mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1447129562681327617

@3asAbird

How high is hospitalisation and infection in 40 to 50 age group. As this article claims kids hugh infecting this age group which most likely parents/ teachers even if they double vaxxed. This age group won be eligible for 3rd boosters yet between kids and working they potentially more exposure risk to covid than a 80plus your old. Do the risks suddenly increase from 49 when you turn 50?

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/englands-slow-vaccine-rollout-children-risks-new-covid-spike/

No idea about 5_9 is suspect lack of pcr testing and less symptoms so less easy to measure how many have covid.

There are also parents of school children in their 50s and 60s. And grandparents in some families live in the same house, or do some caring for children.

It's very difficult to get a booster, it seems, round here anyway, so you'd expect some general increases in cases and sequelae, while that is being sorted out.

Yes, seen that lonely, and at least he notes that’s it’s happening in clusters (family/school/region) so wonders if it could be other coronaviruses.

I'm remember right at the beginning we were told that the LFTs were liable to detect other coronaviruses. It was one of the reasons they were not recommended for use when symptomatic. That's rarely mentioned now and many people are advised to take LFTs with a wide range of cold type symptoms.

I thought there weren't many human coronaviruses. There's SARS and MERS. It wouldn't be good if these were circulating too. Are there others? Genuine question I tried to Google but haven't come up with much.

There are 7 Lonelyplanet - the big three and 4 milder ones that cause common cold symptoms

coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/cad0003/

containsnuts that makes sense and is kind of what I think that it doesnt detect which one but PCR do

A substantial minority of colds are caused by coronaviruses, so it's not impossible that they're causing false positives on LFTs. See link below.

I don't quite understand why he's discounting the possibility of a higher than usual level of false negatives on PCRs given the number of anecdotal cases of people involved who've had Covid-specific symptoms and/or Covid exposure. But I guess it could be that those cases are part of the normal pattern of people getting false negative PCRs who are now receiving attention due to the fact that it's a news story.

I guess the moral is what it's always been, that if you have a positive LFT and a negative PCR but other surrounding circumstances would lead you to expect you to be infected then you should assume you are infected.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus

Thanks Quartz.

ONS survey confirms the level of Covid prevalence in younger children (age 2 to year 6) is currently meaningfully lower than in secondary school pupils (year 7 to 11). It is not the function of testing.

Help, does anyone know:

If a child tests positive on LFD but won’t do a PCR (no need to discuss reasons for that here), what happens? The LFD and start of symptoms will be reported to NHS.

Do test and trace kick in? Is it recorded on the child’s record as a positive (presumably)? Are there any other differences from if it was confirmed with PCR? Presumably there could be future ones if vaccine passports are introduced.

Thanks

@Piggywaspushed

The absence figures of over 200000 are covid related absences only...

But mine had 20 sessions of absent waiting for a PCR result for that nasty cold going round... Coughing and high temperatures with it. I don't know whether they will count as Covid related or not.

20 sessions? 10 days waiting for a PCR?

The 200,000 are individual children off not sessions of absence. Yes that would count as your child being off for Covid-related reasons.

From the BBC article

The DfE statistics showed:

• 102,000 pupils (1.3%) had a confirmed case of Coronavirus, up 72%, from 59,000 the last time the figures were released, on 16 September
• 84,000 pupils (1.0% of pupils) were absent with a suspected case of Covid
• 5,000 were absent because of restrictions to manage a Covid outbreak
• 2,000 were absent because of Covid-related school closures
• 11,000 were isolating for other reasons

I may have to start posting those spec dates comparator graphs again.

In the meantime Trafford now highest rate in England, based on a three day lag.

However does anyone have any insight into what has gone on in Swindon? It a sort of anti-Trafford

Its 10-14 rate has I’m tempted to say collapsed, although that could be moving into realms of hyperbole. Nevertheless this is how its seven day rate for that age band has moved:

15 Sep 467 per 100,000

22 Sep 1663

29 Sep 2873

05 Oct 955

Age breakdown does not go beyond 5th October at council level.

More broadly overall 7 day rate in Swindon

To 29th Sep 510

To 7th Oct 198, a two day lag to 8th Oct shows 209