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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

999 replies

boys3 · 26/09/2021 17:54

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

OP posts:
Thread gallery
200
MissPeregrine · 09/10/2021 13:12

DS’s school now have ‘outbreaks’ in 3 year groups and have consulted PHE. Currently stating that PHE have advised that dc living with a known positive case should isolate for 5 days and then take LFT for 5 days once back at school.

Those years with outbreaks are being advised to take PCR tests over the weekend and they’re advising that mask wearing should proceed in these year groups.

Luckily DS year group isn’t affected yet, although DS has at least 2 friends confirmed positive.

I’m just keeping fingers crossed, as we head ever closer to half term, that our mini break can still go ahead.

BlueSkyThunking · 09/10/2021 13:45

Our school were advised to get pupils in the ‘outbreak’ years to test in school twice a week. I don’t know what the definition of an outbreak is though.
It seems ridiculous to put certain measures in place only for certain years. Most pupils come into contact with other years on the school coaches (windows all closed) and some also have siblings at the school.

MissPeregrine · 09/10/2021 14:12

Exactly, lots of mixing on the school bus in the morning, siblings etc, although they are still operating the school ‘bubble’ system, those bubbles aren’t bursting, which is good in one sense as there’s just too much disruption but it comes at a cost.

JanglyBeads · 09/10/2021 14:14

A school bubble system without the ability to burst the bubble is pretty meaningless really, because of issues like buses and siblings…..

BlueSkyThunking · 09/10/2021 16:08

Our school has thrown bubbles our the window, my y8 DS now has a tutor group, separate learning group (to encourage socialising within the year) and then separate sets for each subject. Then they move all round the school and can spend lunch and break with any other pupil in the school.

EndoplasmicReticulum · 09/10/2021 16:27

Year 6 open evenings going ahead in person here too. Not sure this is the best idea anyone ever had.

YourKidsIf · 09/10/2021 16:31

@sirfredfredgeorge

They haven’t given that would stand out like a sore thumb in any specimen date analysis

And would stand out as increase in PCR confirmed LFD's and not straight PCR's which we actually have.

But if the PCRs are giving negative results after positive LFDs, they would also be giving negative results on their own. If that makes any sense at all! I am definitely not a data expert so if that’s not what the data is saying then that’s great. I just don’t think the Bond theory is very plausible
saturdaywoe · 09/10/2021 16:44

Can anyone remember what cases were recorded as last Saturday please? Assuming they've gone up this week but not sure by how much!

tiddlysquat · 09/10/2021 16:54

If it helps me and dd have both have negative lateral flows all week but yesterday and today got pinged with positive pcrs...! So PCRs aren't failing in our case.

containsnuts · 09/10/2021 16:55

@saturdaywoe

30,301 reported Sat 2nd October. So up a bit on last week. Mostly England and Wales I believe.

sirfredfredgeorge · 09/10/2021 17:09

But if the PCRs are giving negative results after positive LFDs, they would also be giving negative results on their own. If that makes any sense at all!

Whilst this is true - it could not be isolated just to PCRs and not turn up in the LFD+PCR, indeed it should need to be shown more in the LFD+PCR as the criteria for testing is different and the PCR+LFD should be much more likely to test positive in PCR than just the symptomful PCR test. There's no realistic way it could show up only in an increase in PCR - we'd need at least some of those 10-15% (currently) of LFD +ve PCR -ve

BlueSkyThunking · 09/10/2021 17:16

Can anyone explain what is happening in greater Manchester? They have just announced school children must wear masks as cases are 37% up on last week. What I don’t understand is why this area seems to always be high, you would think since it has had high rates previously there would be more immunity.

boys3 · 09/10/2021 17:31

@BlueSkyThunking

Can anyone explain what is happening in greater Manchester? They have just announced school children must wear masks as cases are 37% up on last week. What I don’t understand is why this area seems to always be high, you would think since it has had high rates previously there would be more immunity.
No beyond saying it’s a very mixed picture. Trafford one of the highest rates in the country, but over three times high that of Manchester council area, and really, Trafford this is, a bit of an outlier at the moment compared with the rest.
OP posts:
sirfredfredgeorge · 09/10/2021 17:59

What I don’t understand is why this area seems to always be high, you would think since it has had high rates previously there would be more immunity

My theory is the local health teams catch more cases, and what happens when you catch more cases, is that it mostly just spreads out the "wave", so you keep on catching more cases, particularly if you catch more cases in the groups who are low/few symptoms.

So instead of catching few cases and there rapidly being a very large buffer of people who can't be infected from the people they didn't catch, they catch more of the cases, which makes their rate look higher and also stops the spread meaning there's a much higher proportion of people who can be infected later.

lonelyplanet · 09/10/2021 18:29

@sirfredfredgeorge

What I don’t understand is why this area seems to always be high, you would think since it has had high rates previously there would be more immunity

My theory is the local health teams catch more cases, and what happens when you catch more cases, is that it mostly just spreads out the "wave", so you keep on catching more cases, particularly if you catch more cases in the groups who are low/few symptoms.

So instead of catching few cases and there rapidly being a very large buffer of people who can't be infected from the people they didn't catch, they catch more of the cases, which makes their rate look higher and also stops the spread meaning there's a much higher proportion of people who can be infected later.

Im not sure I follow.

Is your theory that any kind of testing or isolation in groups who have low/few symptoms (children), is causing the rise in cases because not enough children are catching it quickly enough and spreading quickly enough?

JanglyBeads · 09/10/2021 18:38

I wasn’t what sirfred meant there either!

lonelyplanet · 09/10/2021 18:46

@JanglyBeads

I wasn’t what sirfred meant there either!
Maybe he has started on the sherry very early tonight!
sirfredfredgeorge · 09/10/2021 19:01

Is your theory that any kind of testing or isolation in groups who have low/few symptoms (children), is causing the rise in cases because not enough children are catching it quickly enough and spreading quickly enough?

No, it causes persistent high levels of detected cases, imagine two areas one which detects 20% of cases and one which detects 50% of cases, and detecting a case is completely successful in stopping another case from then. 1000 in each group at the start. We'll seed each group with 5 cases and an R of 2.5 with a period of one week.

The area that only catches 20% of people has almost everyone infected in 10 cycles and topping out at around 40 cases and just three "weeks" has a rate over 10/1000 , the area that catches 50% of cases though takes double the time to infect everyone and 12 weeks of that is over 10/1000.

Both places end up just as infected, but the lower detection rate makes that area appear a lot better.

Now if the serious complicates rate in both was high, we'd know that there was a huge discrepancy the low detection area would have had the hospitals overwhelmed, but if the populations have very low rates of serious health risks (due to vaccine protection, or the spread being only in very low risk age groups such as students, children etc.) then the more rapid spread in the first area would not be noticed.

Now I don't remotely think the difference in detection rates are that large (or the R rate, or the complete reduction if you detect a case) but it does illustrate how detection rates don't have to line up with actual rates.

wintertravel1980 · 09/10/2021 20:06

Thanks for the age level breakdown by week, boys3. This is great analysis. I agree the result is inconclusive.

It still puzzles me that all the "older" age groups (even 25-29 year olds) went up at the same time and at a much higher rate than the previous week while cases in 10-14 year olds seem to have plateaued/stopped growing as rapidly. It might have been inter-generational spread or it might have been something else (e.g. a super spreading event as I have hypothesised).

The numbers for 5-9 year olds are probably the result of infections from siblings or school spread.

Let us see what next week brings. If we did indeed had a super spreading event last Thursday-Sunday (which might've not been the case), the numbers might start improving from Tue-Wed.

On a completely different note, booster program in England seems to be going much better than child vaccinations. 28% of 80s+ have now received their booster (based on the NHS Covid statistics website).

Piggywaspushed · 09/10/2021 20:27

The vaccinations programme in schools is a complete shambles winter...

wintertravel1980 · 09/10/2021 20:44

Yes, I was hoping school vaccinations would pick up sooner but the numbers at the national level look pretty disappointing.

I think England should start thinking about vaccinating teens at GP practices / walk-in centres. I understanding there are bureaucratic/safe guarding considerations but the current process seems to be way too slow.

I did not mind JCVI taking their time (in fact, their analysis actually convinced me teen vaccinations are the right way forward) but it is frustrating when we now wasting time due to logistical challenges.

wintertravel1980 · 09/10/2021 20:46

I understand there are bureaucratic considerations...

Piggywaspushed · 09/10/2021 20:49

I took DS2 (17) to a walk in centre today and while I was waiting two parents with younger teens turned up thinking they could get jabbed and had to be turned away.

In my school, 600 students got consent but the nurses only managed to get through 250 on the day they came... it's replaced the flu jab so they basically sent that number of nurses and doses...now no one has any idea when the remaining students will be done. DH's school hasn't even got a sniff of jabs yet.

InMySpareTime · 09/10/2021 20:58

Trafford's differential rate rise might be down to its grammar school system.
A few weeks into term the 11+ exams put hundreds of children from different schools in the same room for hours. At the same time the usual school students have a day off to go and mix with each other.
That's about the only material difference between Trafford's school population and the rest of Manchester's, and could fit timing wise by the time those infected from 11+ pass it on to others.

Bordois · 09/10/2021 20:58

[quote containsnuts]@saturdaywoe

30,301 reported Sat 2nd October. So up a bit on last week. Mostly England and Wales I believe.[/quote]
Although, for context, last Saturday and Sundays reported cases were unusually low - they were running at around 35/36k for a while then dropped to 30k and then went back up again.

Swipe left for the next trending thread