I struggle to see any data, anywhere, that starts to back it up
does not of course mean I should not still try to look for it, even though I am yet to be convinced that it exists.
As such the, possibly excessively colourful graphics, look at the number of cases by age band for:
as reported Friday 24th September for spec dates Monday 20th to Thursday 23rd September; 88,444 cases; 28.6% in the 10-14s; 51.9% in the under 19 age bands in total.
as reported last Friday for spec dates Monday 27th September to Thursday 30th September; 89,031; less than 1% overall like for like increase, a net increase of 587 cases.
That less than 1% however hides a myriad of sins, and is of course BB (Before Bond).
Big drop in the 5-9s; 1,368 fewer cases; a drop of 14%.
Slight fall also in 10-14s, 261 fewer cases, though still 28% of cases for that period.
20-34s either slight fall or almost imperceptible increase
45-54s added 1,110 cases; increases of 7% and 15% respectively. 40-59s overall added 1683 cases.
60-74s and 75+ both added around 200 cases, an 11% week on week increase for the latter.
as reported today for spec dates Monday 4th October to Thursday 7th October; 101,252 by known age (implying we have better age info than sub-national geography info); giving us the close to 14% like for like period increase, or 12,221 increase in cases.
Biggest absolute increase in the 5-9 age group, 1518 increase, although that leaves them not much above the equivalent position two weeks earlier. And perhaps begs the separate question as to the previous dip. Let's not get side-tracked though.
close to 1200 extra cases for the 10-14s, an age band which still accounts for over 1 in 4 cases in the period being looked at.
20-29s increasing; but below the overall percentage. an extra 595 cases between them.
30-39s an extra 1536 cases; 15% and 17% increases. Jury out on this one. Although the percentage of cases that these bands add is not disproportionate to their percentage of the overall population. 12.5% v 13.4%
Into our arguably mainly secondary parental groups, 3870 cases added by the 40-59s. 31.7% of the additional cases from these four age bands.
Heading into probable grand-parent territory we find the biggest week on week growth in percentage terms. 60-74s add 1924 cases, a 35.6% increase. A group also increasingly likely to see the risk of waning immunity as opposed to those younger.
Finally 75s and over; 496 extra cases; a 23% increase.
Do I think this presents a compelling cinema argument? No
Do I think it completely rules out the cinema argument? Also No, but does little to actively support it either.
Are spreading up the generations from school; plus waning immunity still in the mix? Yes, in the mix being the operative phase.