'No reason to think Covid will become more virulent’/'It could be like common cold by Spring'

[GoldFrankensteinAndGrrr]

Some positive news from people who know what they're talking about this morning.

As far as the common cold claim is concerned, there was the caveat that we have to get through winter first (wouldn't fit on my screenshot but that's all that it said, no predictions of catastrophe or anything).

Yes I know there are still vulnerable people whom covid could affect badly (I'm one of them), but this is good news. Although I'm sure someone will be along soon to tell me it's not

Haven’t seen poor old PrincessNuts for ages on the covid boards. She got on so well with Nanny and John. They predicted doom and lockdowns all day long.

@DobbyTheHouseElk I think containsnuts might be nut nuts in disguise

Oh I haven’t seen them. Jolly good. I did think Princess might name change as she was getting outed on every thread.

There’s this tendency to think that because the pandemic is new to us, it must be this totally new world-changing phenomenon that humanity has never experienced before that will utterly change the way we live forever. But there’s nothing new under the sun - including endemic human coronaviruses

Don't go bringing common sense into it, GoldenOmber

Apologies for the tangent, but does anyone know if it's possible to block a member's posts from view? I realise a whole thread can be hidden, but that would mean missing out on a lot of value and it's only the deliberately inflammotory behaviour I want to lose

Puzzledandpissedoff

There’s this tendency to think that because the pandemic is new to us, it must be this totally new world-changing phenomenon that humanity has never experienced before that will utterly change the way we live forever. But there’s nothing new under the sun - including endemic human coronaviruses“

👏👏👏

Thanks, MrsSkylerWhite but it was a quote and not me who originally posted it

It was me who made the silly typo though

Did anyone say covid would necessarily change the world for ever?

@herecomesthsun

Did anyone say covid would necessarily change the world for ever?

Back in March/April last year, they certainly did.

"Apologies for the tangent, but does anyone know if it's possible to block a member's posts from view? I realise a whole thread can be hidden, but that would mean missing out on a lot of value and it's only the deliberately inflammotory behaviour I want to lose"

I don't think you can block people for having a different opinion, no.

I think the most common scientific / historical perspective has been that pandemics tend to last about 2 years, give or take a bit?

@containsnuts

"Apologies for the tangent, but does anyone know if it's possible to block a member's posts from view? I realise a whole thread can be hidden, but that would mean missing out on a lot of value and it's only the deliberately inflammotory behaviour I want to lose"

I don't think you can block people for having a different opinion, no.

Huge difference between a different opinion and outright lies to cause a reaction.

@chesirecat99

Hmm... I would like to watch the webinar and hear what was actually said rather than the writer's interpretation.

No reason to think that SARS-CoV-2 will become more virulent - true

Normally viruses evolve to be less virulent - also true but SARS-CoV-2 is infectious when people are pre-symptomatic so there is no selection pressure for the virus to become less virulent. I believe general consensus is that it is unlikely that SARS-CoV-2 will evolve to be less virulent.

I think what they are talking about is not that the SARS-CoV-2 will have evolved to be less virulent (have less severe symptoms) by next spring, more that the everyone will have been infected or vaccinated and have some immunity by then and they will constantly be reinfected over and over again so their immunity will never wane, and partial immunity (for those that develop immunity) will mean that the symptoms are less severe.

I think the article may be a slight overstatement. As much as I am cautiously optimistic, there is still the possibility of vaccine escape. I wouldn't expect the virus to have evolved to be less virulent by next spring, just that most people will have immunity, which will reduce their symptoms. There will still be many people who don't develop immunity and become seriously ill, as we are seeing now with people who are double vaccinated being hospitalised. I would guess more on a par with flu than the common cold (although I am using "flu" and "common cold" colloquially to describe the risk of becoming seriously ill IYSWIM).

If the virus isn't evolving (I'm taking this from your comment of being reinfected over and over which implies the same virus), where's the possibility of vaccine escape (notwithstanding that no vaccine is 100% )effective?

The news said they were up by a third today compared with the same day last week

That's one day. That's why I said overall in my post . Overall, cases are down 22%.

@TheSeventeenth

None of the staff at my children's school has been off with over 40 and rising children having been tested as positive.

This time last year, well October, almost all our staff - around 80% - were off with covid over a 4-6 week period. Several felt pretty poorly with it. Almost all had no links to covid outside of school. Staff didn't come in close contact with one another either due to the rules.

Despite it spreading at school between staff, children and parents, oddly few of us managed to pass it in to our family members.

Maybe it was more about viral load - being in a classroom with lots of children at one time, with possibly more than one at a time having covid even if without symptoms. But whatever the reason - it spread at school but didn't seem to be spreading at home 🤷‍♀️

And unfortunately not all children have no see you symptoms. My colleagues son is a young teen and is pretty poorly at present. Two of DD's teen friends m]needed medical treatment due to covid recently. Another had to go to the hospital as it made his asthma so bad.

Several have got symptoms similar to a heavy heavy cold/flu - so shouldn't be in school, even if it wasn't covid. Even if it was just a nasty cold - stay home. No one wants these bugs either.

@DobbyTheHouseElk

I don’t think Nanny is real. It’s a bot that generates fear and gets a big old thrill from it. Or is living in a very cold place

I think NannyandJohn is the Tiger Mom, for anyone who knows the book. Or a British incarnation of.

@herecomesthsun

Did anyone say covid would necessarily change the world for ever?

It has changed the world forever. Like all major historical events there will be loads of changes that flow from it, like the wider vaccine progress we will see as a result, changes to working patterns, changes in social behaviour, global economic shifts.

Nothing changes everything in one fell swoop, with the exception of things like massive natural disasters.

This is certainly good news - thanks OP!

Also geopolitical shifts, it certainly emphasised the difference between totalitarian China and democratic USA.

You’re seriously getting on my wick now, you miserable sod

😂😂😂

Always willing to listen to the scientists over the politicians and if they say we are over the worst of it I am so very relieved. Roll out of vaccine globally and life can fully resume. Tremendous work from the science and medical community!

If the virus isn't evolving (I'm taking this from your comment of being reinfected over and over which implies the same virus), where's the possibility of vaccine escape (notwithstanding that no vaccine is 100% )effective?

No, you have misunderstood, @Winederlust. The virus is constantly mutating. Immunity from both the vaccine and infection wanes over time. Neither vaccination nor natural immunity from infection provide sterilising immunity, only partial immunity, you can still be infected by the virus but you may well be asymptomatic or the symptoms will be less severe.

Currently, it's estimated that 90+% of the UK population (93% in England and Scotland, 91% in Wales and NI) has antibodies against SARS-CoV-2.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies

The effect of that is that transmission slows down and if people who have immunity are infected, most of them will not be seriously ill. As immunity wanes over time, transmission will increase until immunity levels go up enough to slow transmission again. We are reaching the point of endemic equilibrium, where the number of people infected at any one time stays the same because every time someone's immunity wanes, somebody gets infected and develops immunity IYSWIM? Or you get shallow waves. So things stay at a constant level (probably not much better than it is currently in terms of cases/fatalities as you can't get much better than 93% of the population having antibodies) or it is like flu/norovirus season, there is a peak then a trough.

In terms of disease severity, unless the virus mutates to be less virulent, things will be as they are now, some people will still become seriously ill.

However, there do seem to be some interesting developments in treatments for COVID-19, which will make a huge difference.

@Egghead68

John Bell predicted last winter that life would be back to normal by Spring 2021.

I really hope he’s right this time.

It probably could have been. We’d vaccinated the most vulnerable and hospitalisations and deaths were really low so the nhs wasn’t under strain.

@ThisIsNotAMill

You’re seriously getting on my wick now, you miserable sod

😂😂😂

This thread is so funny

@bumbleymummy by summer 21 maybe but in March 21 we were still homeschooling and in full lockdown from Alpha. It didn't help that in late spring there was no quarantine from the flights coming from India when Delta had just emerged there!

Spring technically runs until 21st June so…