Who’s dying if so many vaccinated?

[Flossie44]

So if the vaccination rate is about 80%, who’s in hospital/dying? Is it the 20% unvaccinated?

[quote PatriciaHolm]@ACreakingGateNeverStops

Because there are now far far more people who have had a vaccine than who have not, so the percentage of those who have had a vaccine who have died is much smaller than the percentage of those who have not had a vaccine.

1,119 over 80s died. There are roughly 3.1m over 80s in the UK.

Of the over 80s, around 95% are vaxxed - that's around 2.95m.

So of those, 964 died -that's 0.033% , or around 33 per 100,000 (doesn't match PHE exactly as I'm rounding)

There are around 150,000 unvaxed, of whom 155 died; that's around 1%, or 100 per 100,000. As I say, my numbers don't match exactly because I don't know exactly the population numbers PHE are using, but I think it's close enough to show the point.[/quote]
Thank you @PatriciaHolm that explains it really well.

So what you're saying (using simple numbers as an example) is that if there are 100 people and 80 are vaccinated and 20 not vaccinated if 40 vaccinated people die but only 15 unvaccinated people die then statistically speaking you are more likely to die if you are unvaccinated as 75% of vaccinated people died where as only 50% of vaccinated people died (even though more vaccinated people died overall).

I can see why that conclusion would be reached, but similarly I can also see why some people are suspicious of statistics !!!!

I don't think we'll really see how effective the vaccines are until January . You can't really compare winter deaths v summer ones as deaths are always lower in summer anyway. Last July there were no recorded covid deaths in Scotland for example and we had no vaccine and were out of lockdown. Deaths here are much higher now, as are cases. Obviously we're now dealing with new varients too.
I think the majority of deaths now will be in the elderly and vulnerable as they have been throughout.

@ACreakingGateNeverStops

I think overall we should accept that a huge section of the UK population is generally quite unhealthy and that is probably an indicator of who is dying from covid.

It seems to me that the government have gone all out for vaccination as the only way out of this when yes it will offer some good protection to some but not so much for others and lots of vaccinated people will still die because many people have a poor standard of health.

What I would like to know is why we have so many dying in the UK when countries like Japan have twice the population of the UK, an older population, a much higher population density, less than 50% of their population vaccinated but still less than 17K deaths from covid. That's less than the total deaths for London!!

I can only assume that the low levels of obesity and a generally healthier lifestyle/diet in Japan are something to do with this disparity.

I for one am angry that the government hasn't done more to push exercise/healthy eating as way for people to protect themselves from covid (and lots of other illnesses).

They've really missed a golden opportunity.

The only measure they've taken that wasn't too little too late is vaccination. Everything else:

o Lockdowns - always 2 weeks after the scientists said it was necessary, meaning they had to run longer than they otherwise would have.

o Mask mandates - they lied about masks not making a difference because they were also lying about health care workers having enough PPE, so they could tell people to wear masks until they had enough in the health and care systems - by which time too many people had fallen for the lie. And now they've withdrawn the mandate while numbers are rising and schools are still unventilated

o NHS - cut to the bone in repeated attacks since 2010, leaving it without any contingency for this kind of event. And the pandemic planning that was in place was apparently ripped up by the Tories and the stocks of PPE allowed to run down

And of course schools are underfunded with windows that don't open, crowded classrooms, academisation taking more funds out of education and passed to shiny private companies for all kinds of unnecessary bollocks...

And the austerity years will cost us for decades in poor health outcomes, obesity - you close Sure Start Centres, Health Centres, reduce benefits so people can't afford cooking equipment and ingredients but have to go for cheap ready made calories, let rents rise to the point people are supposed to be grateful to sleep in a single room without a kitchen... Obesity, poor heath - no surprise really.

The PM of Japan apparently resigned over the deaths on his watch. Come on Johnson, off you fuck, take Gove and the rest of the horrorshow with you

@TheDailyCarbunkle,

I do find your posts somewhat disingenuous.

Yes, of course people are less worried about COVID now, as being double vaccinated reduces your mortality rate by about 90%, so my personal one has probably dropped from 1/200 to 1/2,000. That is a massive difference.

And, as many have said, no one wanted to 'crash the economy', or prevent people from seeing their family. The best was done under very difficult circumstances.

As for dying 'with COVID' vs dying 'of COVID', most serious research on the subject think many more have died OF COVID than the official death toll.

The vaccines, produced in under a year, have been absolutely transformative, and a modern miracle. They were never going to be 100% and, like COVID itself, new iterations will be more effective. That does not mean, though, that we can go wild, especially with children unvaccinated.

The people who are beating the "with not of" drum really need to confront the excess death numbers.
The Covid death numbers track the excess death numbers and trail the case numbers extremely well. You can see that the Covid deaths were visibly under-recorded for the Spring 2020 peak when we weren't testing anything like enough and somewhat over-recorded for January/February 2021 when we implemented saturation testing. But the early 2021 excess deaths are still very large. This was not due to a plague of rogue buses running people over in vast numbers shortly after their positive tests for asymptomatic Covid. It's because Covid was killing several thousand people a week significantly before their time.

I commend to you the ONS's elegant new Power BI page on excess deaths.
app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9
Less messy link
www.gov.uk/government/statistics/excess-mortality-in-england-weekly-reports

@DameFanny IF ONLY he’d resign. Trouble is which horror bag would replace him and his band of ghouls.

I would also LOVE to know what (who) influenced the removal of the mask mandate, I bet that’s one hell of a rabbit hole.

[quote YellowClouds]@LegendaryReady - it would seem about 60% +

The vaccine has never been about stopping people from dying, vaccinated people will still die, unvaccinated people will still die. The vaccine doesn't mean you will suddenly live forever. [/quote]
?? The vaccine is absolutely about reducing deaths... With similar cases numbers in the winter, deaths were 5-10 times current numbers.

Agree @Thewiseoneincognito. Clinging to the hope that as John Major lurked in the background of Thatcher's last government, there might be someone with commonsense hiding in this one.

Mask removal? The only explanation is they want it ripping through the rest of the population so they can say it's all done now back to normal here's a pay cut to pay for it take an extra job picking fruit if you want to eat don't look at the long covid sufferers they'd be back at work if they really wanted it....

Gah

If everyone gets vaccinated, there's still a percentage who will get ill and die, as the vaccination is only up to about 90% effective, This means 10% of people will get ill and maybe die. So out of about 50 million who are able to get vaccinated, there will still be a high percentage who die

Not "10% of people will get ill and maybe die". People will get ill and die at 10% of the rate which they otherwise would, which is a lot lower.

[quote MsWarrensProfession]The people who are beating the "with not of" drum really need to confront the excess death numbers.
The Covid death numbers track the excess death numbers and trail the case numbers extremely well. You can see that the Covid deaths were visibly under-recorded for the Spring 2020 peak when we weren't testing anything like enough and somewhat over-recorded for January/February 2021 when we implemented saturation testing. But the early 2021 excess deaths are still very large. This was not due to a plague of rogue buses running people over in vast numbers shortly after their positive tests for asymptomatic Covid. It's because Covid was killing several thousand people a week significantly before their time.

I commend to you the ONS's elegant new Power BI page on excess deaths.
app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9
Less messy link
www.gov.uk/government/statistics/excess-mortality-in-england-weekly-reports[/quote]
In agree with you with regard to the two pre-vaccine waves, where the excess death rate would likely have been many times higher had we not had lockdowns.... But the position with the post-vaccine third wave is very different. There may still be excess deaths but nothing like on the scale
we had before.

A colleague just passed away 3 days ago. Double vaccinated and no underlying health conditions. Normal BMI and very fit. He deteriorated very quickly. Was 58 years old. Devastated.

@Flossie44

So if the vaccination rate is about 80%, who’s in hospital/dying? Is it the 20% unvaccinated?

A far, far smaller proportion of people relative to the infection rate, than pre-vaccination. So yes, basically the unvaccinated.

Anecdotally, most (but not all) people admitted to my DD's hospital this week are unvaccinated. ALL the people in ICU are unvaccinated.

97% of those hospitalised with Covid are unvaccinated so based on that I would say yes

Approx 1 in 5 is under 30...

Re of and with covid is the excess death chart helpful

Looking at it it was under until recently, in England anyway

www.gov.uk/government/statistics/excess-mortality-in-england-weekly-reports

Oh yes, there are definitely far fewer deaths in this wave - both excess of normal and registered from Covid. Vaccines visibly work well.

But there are some people on this thread who seem to be pushing the "with not of narrative" hard, both for current deaths and previous waves and it's not really true.

Deaths are currently slightly above normal - by roughly the same number as registered Covid deaths.

I was looking at the graphs on the covid dashboard.

Admissions and deaths are both rising and are higher (admissions) or as high (deaths) now than they were mid-March

I'm not sure that's the position they wanted to be in at the start of the autumn

People of all ages and vaccine statuses are dying of covid.

More children and young people than I can remember at any time in the pandemic so far.

[quote MossyBottom]@MatildaIThink I think you misunderstood my point which was the opposite of what you say.
Someone who has six months to live and dies now is dying of covid. Covid has taken away their last six months. It may not seem important to you but if I had six months left it would matter.

To all those disparaging the fatalities caused by covid there is one measure that's clear. The excess death rate. Where the deaths in any given country exceed the norm for that period, usually a year.

www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid[/quote]
I agree with you @MossyBottom

People are still trying to pretend Covid is not causing deaths.

This idea that everyone who died from Covid was expendable because they would have died at some point from something else is a) weird and b) callous.

Haven't read the whole thread but my observations from my Covid ward is older people are dying. About 50/50 vaccination wise.

It seems the vaccine protection is wearing off for those people jabbed earlier in the year. As we are seeing lots of older people but also staff having Covid (not being admitted) who were jabbed around the same time.
Boosters are very much needed!

I work with older people and honestly it's like Covid hasn't existed. No masks worn , unnecessary travel/ holidays, i am struggling to understand their behaviour.

Here's today's:

twitter.com/lawrencegilder/status/1435990663410106373?s=21

@PrincessNutNuts

People of all ages and vaccine statuses are dying of covid.

More children and young people than I can remember at any time in the pandemic so far.

Well, fortunately we don't have to rely on your recollection, as we have the data. And fortunately, it's not true.

Quick and dirty graphs - red is weekly deaths in hospital of age 0-19, blue of age 20-29. Quite clearly not more than any time in the pandemic so far.