Will you be angry if we end up back in lockdown?

[turnshavetabled]

/ harsh restrictions?

I feel so tired of this all - but mostly tired of feeling lied to by the government. The false promises - 'irreversible' 'final lockdown until science / the vaccines can save the day'

And Scotland are already floating more restrictions, only a few weeks after reopening. It's gutting. I wish they would just tell us what the probably already know is likely to happen over the next few months.

We will comply

I would be scared as to the precedent set. It is one thing to lockdown as an emergency response (though I always felt that the harm outweighed the benefit) but if we lockdown or impose severe restrictions again, then lockdown becomes normalised as a way to deal with insufficient NHS capacity. The idea that my and my families life will be controlled on a long-term basis by whether hospitals are busy is frightening.

If we "need" to lockdown when 95% of the population have antibodies and in relative terms a tiny percentage of the population is actually severely affected by covid, the same justification could apply every winter and to infectious diseases other than covid. Healthcare capacity is always a constrained resource in every country in the world. A new lockdown would show that our main value as a society is now maintaining "health" which has been very narrowly defined as ICU bed capacity - at any cost. So millions of people lose their livelihoods, social life, financial security and general wellbeing (and often also mental health and long-term physical health) and all the other things which make life worth living to marginally increase the chance of someone else having an ICU bed (assuming that the justification for lockdown would be about NHS capacity and not just about case numbers).

And when imposing moderate restrictions doesn't work - which we essentially know it won't from experience, particularly with the delta variant - then we impose severe restrictions and when they don't work quickly (which again they won't, as we already know) we impose them for longer. And then to "avoid another lockdown" we probably keep masks and social distancing and a load of other things which degrade everyone's quality of life (particularly children's) afterwards. And they become normalised over time too.

And by that time my son will have spent the vast majority of his life living under some form of restrictions and in a toxic culture which conditions people see each other as dangerous biohazards and puts up literal barriers between them. And long-term he and his generation will have to pay for this.

I would also be concerned about the economic impact, which seems now to be ignored by the press and government. The economy thrives on certainty and part of the damage caused by being in and out of lockdown has been the erosion of any certainty. Why would you start up a new business if it could be closed down indefinitely at any moment or forced to trade in conditions which can't be profitable. You can't link the functionality of your economy to availability of hospital beds and expect it to prosper. The unlocking was probably described as irreversible in order to create some certainty. I think we are taking a huge risk with the economy (and therefore our ability to fund public services like healthcare in future) by printing money like we have been. Maybe it will work out ok but it could easily be catastropic, even more so than running out of healthcare capacity in the short-term.

I've no idea about compliance. I wouldn't personally comply with any rule about not seeing my family. But I think people are naturally quite compliant (and many quite like being able to turn away from society and stay in a bubble) and the government's behavioural scientists have so far managed to create essentially the behaviour they intended to. I don't think they will be able to create the same level of personal fear again though. And I think if the financial support went or was reduced you would see a very different response to lockdown than what we have seen so far.

From Scottish press conference:
Scotland willing to act if needed, but not currently considering a circuit breaker. Do not want to "go backwards". Keep social distancing etc. Further update in a few days. Get vaccinated, test regularly.

Overall quite positive.

Tldr: no lockdown today. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

No because I only think it will be done because it has to be and because i expect some restrictions will be necessary at some point in mid winter.

That doesn't mean i will like it. More that i think the situation will necessitate it.

I also don't think we could have continued restrictions longer either because we needed the break psychologically.

Rock and hard places spring to mind.

@FourTeaFallOut

I'll be livid if the schools close. I'd tolerate the restrictions that would be required to keep them open with good grace. But if the schools close they can get fucked.

This.

I wonder how those that said they will comply (the clear minority if this were a straw poll) will feel when no one else complies. I don't think we will have anywhere near the same compliance, so my guess is no one will because it is pretty pointless if only 10% comply and everyone else ignores it.

I hope the government are drawing up some proper contingencies, because without public approval for further restrictions it will be utterly futile.

Mine too, as I've been shielding. But hey, your MH is clearly more important than mine.

To them, theirs is more important than yours. Why wouldn't it be?

Or alternatively increase the capacity of ICU? Obviously there will be a financial implication but in the grand scale of the overall NHS budget would it be that much?

My local hospital before Covid had something like 20 beds. Would it cost that much to make it 40 bedded? Assuming it could be staffed.

I wouldn't abide by the rules of another lockdown.

If schools shut again, i would be very tempted to hand my DC over to social services and tell them I cannot home school again and keep my mental health in tact. I jest...sort of

@CovidCorvid

Or alternatively increase the capacity of ICU? Obviously there will be a financial implication but in the grand scale of the overall NHS budget would it be that much?

My local hospital before Covid had something like 20 beds. Would it cost that much to make it 40 bedded? Assuming it could be staffed.

Staffing is the issue. The ICU staff are broken after the past two waves and I believe a number have left (at my husband’s trust anyway, I don’t have national figures or anything).

I don’t know what has been done about recruitment of ICU specialists. They should have started a huge recruitment drive in March 2020 but I suspect they haven’t, and even if they had it takes time sadly.

Er - dentists? Opticians? GPs? Theatres? Shops? Nursing homes?

There other services that are important to people.

No:

It’s an emerging situation and it’s childish to expect certainty in such circumstances.

The government has been reckless and irresponsible and it has told lies. But some of the “broken promises” are just the situation changing. It was foolhardy to make promises at all.

[quote turnshavetabled]@TheGuru87 there was always going to be an upward spike when they reopened everything - they knew it was going to happen. Perhaps the plan is to just ride it out. They suggested we could have over 100k cases no no lockdown so perhaps the hope is that once schools open they won't surpass that.[/quote]
It's a good suggestion by the government, but their words mean nothing. The first lockdown, they said it was over and each one since, 'no more lockdowns' no more furlough and at the drop of a hat they reintroduce it.

I would suggest, with cases around 35k aday, once schools return we will we looking at around 70k.

Current death rate is 150 a day, hospital capacity is reducing, so if we continue within 2-3 months possibly much sooner. ICU capacity will be full again, no choice but to lockdown or leave people to die with life threatening conditions.

The government, either needs to introduce restrictions sooner or open the nightingales and change tactics.

Me personally, I would open the nightingales and let this play out. As its gonna be around for ever, we cannot continue to damage children's prospects and futures, young people's aspirations of owning a home or having a job.... it's all becoming very unfair and one sided. With some benefiting massively from the lockdowns and others being put into hardship. Particularly the young...

What happened to capitalism? There's no capitalism here, it's socialism for the rich and the old at the expense of the young.

“ It is impossible for a government to put structures in place that will "prevent" any future lockdowns. Nothing can do that, however much time and money you throw at it.

It would take a decade or more to rebuild schools and hospitals to have perfect ventilation systems, more space, less crowded areas etc. We're not talking a couple of workmen with a toolkit, we're talking huge infrastructure work that would take months, if not years, to design, then you need planning permission, then what about the period when you can't teach/treat people because the existing building is being demolished. There's a finite limit to what you can do in a short time period.

Same with public transport. You can't just double the length of trains or double the number of buses on the roads. Again, it takes time, a lot of time. Trains take a few years to design and build, then another year or so for testing and staff training. If we are to increase numbers of buses, we need bigger bus stations, road improvements, etc., and double the number of buses means more congestion on the roads. Again, what about the double number of bus drivers we'd need.

A few months of a lockdown and a year or two of restrictions doesn't give anywhere near enough time to improve the infrastructure to be "safe enough" to prevent future lockdowns.”

Lockdown is a choice the government makes. You may consider these things necessary to be “safe”. my idea of “safe” is quite different. Either way, I don’t lay any blame on the public for not behaving the way I might like them to behave.

Do you know, we could simply unwind a few of the stupid senseless things they've screwed up, then we might have a chance of not going under the bus...

Get masks back on people

Drop mass gatherings without stringent testing

Embrace and promote WFH where possible instead of trying to save Pret

Three dead simple steps, could make a massive difference

But no, we went gung-ho like Boris said and now were shooting ourself repeatedly in the foot!!

No I wouldn't be angry, I'd just sigh and get on with it again. It wouldn't surprise me at all if restrictions return. I'd just hope that my preschooler could continue to attend nursery, as she was able to throughout the last lockdown. We've made the most of our summer, going out every day and visiting lots of places that were closed during lockdown, and partly that was because I'm worried we might not get another chance to visit for months. I'd be annoyed if a lockdown slowed down the progress of my house purchase and school admissions assessments. But if furlough came back that would be an advantage to my business, plus some of the other government delays/extended deadlines and financial support. So that would be the bright side for me.

In previous lockdowns my family have been very cautious and haven't wanted to meet up. Personally I would be happy to meet up with them if they want to, but it depends on them. Otherwise we'd be complying with lockdown rules, because most places we'd want to visit (theatre, soft play, museums, pool) will be shut. I'd be going out every day though to take my preschooler out for walks and exercise, and I'd use public transport to travel, as we did in the last lockdown.

@SlipperyDippery

It's not time which is the issue to train ICU staff, neither is it supply.

The problem is conditions and pay.

Nurses particularly do not see the point, when they get rewarded with a small pay rise. The public are asking for more from the NHS, on ever reducing resources and pay.

Inflation is eroding their wages, whilist everyone else is at home on furlough they are told to get to work. You have tradesmen, getting free grants and working, whilist NHS staff have to fight to just get a rise with inflation.

So, after having the fear of the pandemic and being told get to work, which of course they will. You can quite understandably see why they are leaving or quiting the profession.

The public responded with shurging their shoulders, well you picked that job. They get paid enough, but are they really, when house prices are through the roof and inflation is pushing up everything.

@corkpin it sounds like you've had a very cushy lockdown. There are many others a lot less fortunate than you.

We won't go back to a lockdown.

We need to learn to live with this.

I wont comply unless it applies to everyone. No loopholes for football matches, nightclubs, elite athletes etc. When its ok to go to a piss up in a nightclub but not ok to work in a covid compliant office, it's not a lockdown, its just nonesense

@CovidCorvid

Or alternatively increase the capacity of ICU? Obviously there will be a financial implication but in the grand scale of the overall NHS budget would it be that much?

My local hospital before Covid had something like 20 beds. Would it cost that much to make it 40 bedded? Assuming it could be staffed.

It's staffing that's the problem, not equipment. We had those Nightingale Hospitals which were never used because there wasn't enough staff. Pointless taking ICU nurses out of a hospital ICU and moving them to a Nightingale as they can only treat the same number of patients at a time. You can't just train ICU nurses and doctors at a few weeks'/months' notice - it takes years. If you retrain existing nurses and doctors in other disciplines, it would be quicker but then you cause a shortage in the areas they've come from.

@dementedma

I wont comply unless it applies to everyone. No loopholes for football matches, nightclubs, elite athletes etc. When its ok to go to a piss up in a nightclub but not ok to work in a covid compliant office, it's not a lockdown, its just nonesense

None of those things were happening during our lockdowns. They were some of the last things to re-start a few months after the lockdown. Infection rates were rising BEFORE they were given the go ahead, so they're certainly not entirely to blame for the rising cases at the moment.

@TheGuru87 Inflation is eroding their wages, whilist everyone else is at home on furlough they are told to get to work. You have tradesmen, getting free grants and working, whilist NHS staff have to fight to just get a rise with inflation.

You have a pretty warped view of the reality. "Everyone" wasn't sat at home on furlough - lots of people worked throughout, lots of people lost their jobs and lots of people weren't eligible for furlough. Likewise, not all tradesmen were eligible for grants, there were 3 MILLION excluded freelancers and self employers, lots of tradesmen weren't eligible and couldn't work due to lack of supplies, customers cancelling on them, etc. I personally know a few tradesmen and self employed who've lost their homes and a couple have commited suicide due to lack of government support. It's certainly not all been sweetness and roses outside the public sector and NHS - huge numbers of people have really suffered.

No because I have a sense of perspective and can count my blessings. Bleating about loss of freedom is absolute petty entitled behaviour when the world is full of actual suffering. Look at Afghanistan fgs. I discount those with MH issues, poor accommodation, SEN kids etc from this of course.

Yes, because if we are locking down when we have vaccines, this means there is no end to it. I'm happy to be careful, wear masks in public, test regularly and stay in if I have covid. Anything else, no.