Under 30k cases today

[TheVampiresWife]

And infections falling for the sixth consecutive day.

Excellent news!

Ordered a PCR here yesterday. Bet it arrives first thing as have all the others.
Test.
Put in post box.
Result tomorrow.
I’d put money on it.

@FourTeaFallOut

Yeah, it's good to see those hospital figures.

Although I guess all those tens of thousands of people who aren't testing because of those holiday plans - and thus artificially decreasing the covid figures - are really doubling down on their deception by having the good grace not to go to hospital if they get really sick either?

That or the Scottish must have been masters of the sickie over the last couple of months and now they are not doing so because they want to go on holiday.

The absolute determination not to have any optimism or hope despite the data tells us something but it not about covid.

It's called being cautious.

We all know what happened last time the pandemic was declared "over". And despite the drop we are still dealing with a massive number of cases.

@NannyAndJohn

It's called being cautious.

We all know what happened last time the pandemic was declared "over". And despite the drop we are still dealing with a massive number of cases.

You are not cautious.

Being cautious means taking measured steps and putting things into context.

It never fails to amaze me just how many people are incapable of this.

The absolute determination not to have any optimism or hope despite the data tells us something but it not about covid.

I reckon some of it is people being so scared and effectively traumatised by the last year that they refuse to have any hope about anything anywhere ever related to covid. Even when that ends up in borderline conspiracy theory “government is fiddling the numbers” territory.

Still, if the fall keeps falling then it’ll be increasingly hard to deny. And perhaps all those people around the world who we’re told were “looking on in horror” at UK unlocking will feel reassured enough to turn their attention to all the parts of the world where the picture actually is horrific?

@TooOldandTired

thecatsatonthewall SAGE has a purpose, they aren't supposed to comment on political issues and they don't. They advise the government on their area of expertise and recommend a course of action the government should take and it is up to the elected government to make a decision on what to do.

Independent SAGE are a joke, they are clearly so politically focused you can't take anything they say seriously. The pure arrogance of them calling themselves Independent SAGE tells you all you need to know. No-one has appointed them, no-one has asked them, they just feel they need to share their 'wisdom' with the general public.

I’m beginning to realise this too. I was watching Novaro media yesterday to see their views ( lefty Corby media organisation) and they had someone from Indy sage on. He actually suggested we look to Australia to advise us here in the U.K.. Hellooo! 2020 called and wants its analysis back. They have a very backwards mindset imo and can’t praise the government no matter what they do. Trouble is it makes people switch off to them and their insights. I also agree that even calling yourself Indy sage is very arrogant and misleading. Mind you, there are plenty of other lobby groups that do this. The tax payer alliance had me fooled for a while!

It's amazing how the cases have dropped since school kids and teachers have stopped twice weekly lateral flow testing....

Slightly off topic but why hasn't france's cases taken off? slowing at below 26k, yet Delta is the dominate strain, as it is in Germany, 10k yesterday.

Don't say lack of testing, as their hospitalisations rates are very low.

Is the largely different vaccines given responsible?

We are (rightly) celebrating below 30k but its extremely compared to many countries in Europe.

GoldenOmber I have thoroughly lost patience with it.

Too many people with no concept of where the uk is and an opinion thats so caught up with political cultism they can't see the wood for the trees.

I am not a fan of this government but Im somehow made out to be a government cheerleader.

Errrr no. I can read data. I am not daft. I can work out risk probabilities and likelihoods.

We aren't out of the woods. We have a political issue with chronic underfunding of the nhs which makes it impossible to manage most other winters without covid.

At this point that and other issues are becoming more pressing and concerning.

"But covid" said with a wail

@GoldenOmber

The absolute determination not to have any optimism or hope despite the data tells us something but it not about covid.

I reckon some of it is people being so scared and effectively traumatised by the last year that they refuse to have any hope about anything anywhere ever related to covid. Even when that ends up in borderline conspiracy theory “government is fiddling the numbers” territory.

Still, if the fall keeps falling then it’ll be increasingly hard to deny. And perhaps all those people around the world who we’re told were “looking on in horror” at UK unlocking will feel reassured enough to turn their attention to all the parts of the world where the picture actually is horrific?

I agree and also remember all the scientists with their letters etc. I wonder what they think if the numbers.

I also think some on here prefer people to be anxious as it makes them feel safer if others behave as they would when anxious. So it’s a constant push for it.

This is Chris Whitty 2 weeks ago. Do you think he has a good idea of where the UK is? Or do you think he is scared and traumatised or summat? I thought and I still think, that he is right here.

"He added: "We've still got 2,000 people in hospital and that number is increasing. If we double from 2,000 to 4,000 from 4,000 to 8,000, 8,000 and so on it doesn't take many doubling times until you're in very, very large numbers indeed."

While Prof Whitty cautioned "we are not by any means out of the woods yet", he added that "we are in much better shape due to the vaccine programme, and drugs, and a variety of other things".

"But this has got a long way to run in the UK, and it's got even further to run globally," he said.

But Prof Whitty said it was crucial that from 19 July in England, people "take things incredibly slowly" - adding that he anticipated most people would still take precautions.

"If you look over what people have done, and in fact if you look at what people intend to do now, people have been incredibly good at saying, 'I may be a relatively low risk, but people around me are at high risk, and I'm going to modify my behaviours, I'm going to reduce my contacts, I'm going to improve ventilation...',"

I also think some on here prefer people to be anxious as it makes them feel safer if others behave as they would when anxious.

Some people are so theatrical about their pessimism it comes across as sport.

This is Chris Whitty 2 weeks ago. Do you think he has a good idea of where the UK is? Or do you think he is scared and traumatised or summat? I thought and I still think, that he is right here.

That’s really not the same thing as Chris Whitty saying “this alleged fall in cases isn’t a fall at all, it’s all due to people not testing or PHE fiddling the numbers and anyway it won’t last, you’ll see!”, is it?

Caution is reasonable (although should include more things than just ‘caution about covid’, of course). But refusing to believe any apparent good news ever is a different thing altogether.

@GoldenOmber

This is Chris Whitty 2 weeks ago. Do you think he has a good idea of where the UK is? Or do you think he is scared and traumatised or summat? I thought and I still think, that he is right here.

That’s really not the same thing as Chris Whitty saying “this alleged fall in cases isn’t a fall at all, it’s all due to people not testing or PHE fiddling the numbers and anyway it won’t last, you’ll see!”, is it?

Caution is reasonable (although should include more things than just ‘caution about covid’, of course). But refusing to believe any apparent good news ever is a different thing altogether.

Where Whitty was two weeks ago - stressing caution when numbers were still skyrocketing and there was uncertainty about where it would top out, isn't necessarily where Whitty is now having seen data coming in since.

Yes we may get another spike but the fact that things appear to be slowing and measures working, is a good sign.

The thing with exponential growth is exponential growth is uncontrollable and unmanaged. Growth which is in fits and starts suggests control is possible even with restrictions being relaxed somewhat.

If you had asked me two weeks where i we were, i was much more anxious and nervous. I now have growing confidence and optimism which is based on various data points (not just looking at pure case numbers).

Its looking at pattern of delta in india, its case growth in age groups, its patterns across the country, its pattern in Scotland which appears ahead of England, its a weakening in growth for hospitalisations...

The numbers are looking good. Theories to counter this, are increasingly looking like more of a stretch or just dont match dates / numbers (its not like i havent considered).

Tbh im more interested in what whitty is saying with the benefit of the latest dats than what he said 2 weeks ago simply because of how fast moving and fluid the situation currently is.

Whitty was also saying two weeks ago that he was increasingly concerned about the indirect effects of restrictions and health in other areas and thats something that was causing concern and thats why he personally supported relaxation of restrictions now, rather than a delay of some weeks. He felt that would ultimately take pressure off the nhs going into winter.

A point thats conveniently forgotten / ignored.

Which again is part of my point. Too many people don't want to look past covid.

Its not a binary situation between "we're fucked" or "its over" like some seem to believe.

It is possible to be optimistic about the drop in cases whilst also having the understanding that we're not out of the woods yet and things could change.

Indeed. I see it more like 'trying to thread the eye of a needle' as a best approach situation. I also think that leaving restrictions will always result in an 'exit wave' which isn't particularly avoidable. I don't think its just delta nor a lax attitude to the vulnerable but an inevitability because vaccines are not 100% effective for everyone and that has to work itself through sadly.

BTW our PCR arrived as predicted. Test taken and popped in priority post box.
Result should be here tomorrow.

I just think people have got into the mindset that we can eliminate all risk in life. As if that was how life was before covid and it was ever viable.

We can't stop every bad thing happening. They do. Its not nice. We can only limit problems to a certain extent before we create other ones in an unintended way.

@Bordois

Its not a binary situation between "we're fucked" or "its over" like some seem to believe.

It is possible to be optimistic about the drop in cases whilst also having the understanding that we're not out of the woods yet and things could change.

Exactly. So it makes sense to be pretty cautious right now while we work out what is happening and where things are going.

As regards health, we have prioritised that and been for hospital, GP, dental appointments even during lockdown and while shielding.

We also avoid going inside with other people as much as possible and wear masks in that situation if unavoidable.

Exactly. So it makes sense to be pretty cautious right now while we work out what is happening and where things are going

What does being cautious mean in relation to discussing the situation on here though?

Indeed that makes it sound like I'm not being cautious!

Couldn't be further from the truth.

Also ‘being cautious’ is going to mean drastically different things to different people.

Eg for myself I am not being very cautious about avoiding catching covid, compared to many people I know. So I’m not ‘cautious’ in that sense. But for what I’d want from the government, I would hope they have a range of contingency planning scenarios meaning they planning for for what to do if things get worse again, and I’d consider it really irresponsible if they weren’t doing that. And thats ‘cautious’ on some metrics.

Well maybe we can all meet in the middle then. Cautiously and with a bit of social distancing .

@herecomesthsun

Well maybe we can all meet in the middle then. Cautiously and with a bit of social distancing .

Its funny but i think more people are doing so than we give credit. But by the same token we also have a lot of people who think they are being cautious on the basis of things that are fallacies too.

For example people not quite understanding that they aren't necessarily 'safe' if double vaccinated or because they are under 30. So are taking riskier behaviour than they otherwise would.

It again comes down to poor understanding of risk and how risk is changing risk which is also true of the over cautious. This isnt restricted to covid. Poor understanding of risk and risk factors is a pretty universal problem.

This is why we are seeing a current spate of deaths related to people swimming or paddle boarding (or similar) in this heatwave following so much time unable to do such things.

In the vast majority of these sad cases you will see the same pattern of mistakes and not understanding / identifying risk accurately even amongst people who think they know what they are doing.

We also know that risk is part of life and whilst we have people who are for example immune suppressed who are at risk of covid, they are also at risk of any number of any other things but we have heightened awareness of the threat of covid which makes us even more anxious.

I take the view that life has to return to normal at some point, so we have to gradually do things that we might not have done last summer or autumn with good reason. And this is going to be harder for some to accept than others because they've fallen into the trap of thinking we can protect more people than we can in practice.

Even Whitty has said that there are a certain number of people for whom delaying reopening only delays getting covid and dying from it by a few months because of the nature of a pandemic and how human intervention can only do so much. But taking the brakes off now may help with other things and overall on balance is why we need to do it.

It is an unpalatable idea and reality. I think how think eventually pan out throughout the world may make us look less like we've fucked it than many fear.

Every country has made mistakes in this pandemic or had things that put them into a position where they cannot respond in an ideal fashion.

The if onlys will stack up... But hindsight if a wonderful thing...