SAGE adviser says achieving herd immunity by letting cases rise is Govt plan now

[herecomesthsun]

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims

“What we are seeing is a decision by the government to get as many people infected as possible, as quickly as possible [e.g. in nightclubs], while using rhetoric about caution as a way of putting the blame on the public for the consequences,” said Prof Robert West, a health psychologist at University College London who participates in Sage’s behavioural science subgroup.

“It looks like the government judges that the damage to health and healthcare services will be worth the political capital it will gain from this approach,” West said, adding that ministers appear to believe the strategy is now sustainable – unlike last year – because of the vaccine rollout.

Johnson and co WANTED herd immunity and were all set to go that way but it FAILED.

Hence lockdown.

Do you not remember that there was international concern and intervention before a very reluctant Johnson agreed to lockdown?

And that in the end lockdown came late and there is fairly general agreement that this was an important reason why our initial death toll was so high?

Attacking scientists politically is what Trump always did, and is a sign you can't discredit their arguments scientifically

Somewhat disingenuous that the Guardian tells its readers a scientist is speaking "in a personal capacity" without revealing that he is a member of Independent Sage.

@userperuser

lannistunut

It’s a news reporter.

What is a news reporter

Do you mean the link to All the Citizens and Carole Cadwalladr? If so, this has no bearing on the science being discussed by the scientists.

@TheVampiresWife

History:

While countries around the world began to lock down workplaces, schools, and public gatherings in response to the rapidly spreading coronavirus, the United Kingdom’s initial strategy sent many into an uproar.

At first, the U.K. chose not to shut down large gatherings or introduce stringent social distancing measures. In a plan that surprised many in the medical community, officials instead described a plan to suppress the virus through gradual restrictions, rather than trying to stamp it out entirely.

The strategy, an attempt to build “herd immunity,” involved allowing “enough of us who are going to get mild illness to become immune,” Sir Patrick Vallance, the U.K. government’s chief scientific adviser, told Sky News on March 13.

If the risks of COVID-19 were not so high, it would technically be possible to bring about herd immunity by allowing the disease to run rampant through a population. However, evidence shows that scenario would lead to high rates of hospitalization and need for critical care, straining health service capacity past the breaking point.

www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/uk-backed-off-on-herd-immunity-to-beat-coronavirus-we-need-it

This is our governments strategy - what they are really doing is making employers responsible for their staff, so it’s up to them if they insist and pay for daily lateral flow tests, which in turn will mean they won’t get sick pay.

What’s happening is care homes have restricted visitors, small businesses have closed as they don’t have staff (amazing how many of our young people keep the retail/care and service industries running)
Schools can no longer send children home unless complains they are ill, parents are now off isolating with the children, the supermarkets are suffering, the beauty industry is complaining about cancellations because of isolation rules and people don’t want close contact -

It’s a lockdown by proxy rather than government enforced.

Some businesses are introducing the vaccinated only policy - they can do this because it’s their premises,

@Clavinova

Attacking scientists politically is what Trump always did, and is a sign you can't discredit their arguments scientifically

Somewhat disingenuous that the Guardian tells its readers a scientist is speaking "in a personal capacity" without revealing that he is a member of Independent Sage.

... but also a member of SAGE advising the Government

SAGE is full of excellent scientists.

Indy SAGE is full of quacks and are a politically motivated organisation. They're no better than the anti-vaxxers.

It’s a lockdown by proxy rather than government enforced.

Yes the impact on the Swedish economy was evidence that many people just won't spend as they would normally when cases are high.

We are onbviously going to see growth - but that is not the same as getting back to where we woudl have been without covid.

Economically high cases will impact, polling suggests people are thinking of avoiding busy places.

@starfro

SAGE is full of excellent scientists.

Indy SAGE is full of quacks and are a politically motivated organisation. They're no better than the anti-vaxxers.

Well, Prof West is a member of both.

I think there is a lot of overlap in views, but Whitty & co are more tactful publically, as they need to be.

There is a strong scientific consensus about the need for restrictions and we ignore it at our peril. Literally.

Johnson and co WANTED herd immunity and were all set to go that way but it FAILED.

Of course they wanted herd immunity. Isn’t that what everyone wants? How else will we ever reach a point of normality with covid?

The “herd immunity strategy” didn’t fail. It was never pursued with any force. Hence we went into lockdown.

@starfro

SAGE is full of excellent scientists.

Indy SAGE is full of quacks and are a politically motivated organisation. They're no better than the anti-vaxxers.

How do you feel about the scientists who are members of both

People who complain about indy SAGE being politically motivated should be discounted as their opposition is entirely politically motivated...

@NakedAttraction

Johnson and co WANTED herd immunity and were all set to go that way but it FAILED.

Of course they wanted herd immunity. Isn’t that what everyone wants? How else will we ever reach a point of normality with covid?

The “herd immunity strategy” didn’t fail. It was never pursued with any force. Hence we went into lockdown.

other. way. round.

Herd immunity wasn't possible back then and even with vaccines it is thought not to be possible now. The vaccines are great and life saving but not a 100% answer. We need to be sensible about how we do things as well.

We also need more people vaccinated.

And personally I would rather be sensible over the summer than locked down in the winter, if I can influence that at all.

Of course they wanted herd immunity. Isn’t that what everyone wants? How else will we ever reach a point of normality with covid?

It’s not a choice between hers immunity or Iockdown.

I want everyone for whom the vaccine is approved (over 12s), to be offered it.

herecomesthsun
but also a member of SAGE advising the Government

The Guardian didn't forget to mention that - which key meetings have these two scientists attended and when?

And personally I would rather be sensible over the summer than locked down in the winter, if I can influence that at all.

Why does delaying infections from now to winter help with this?

Do you think Chris Whitty knows more than people on mn?

I think Chris Whitty is not pursuing the stragety he would want, he is a political advisor, he is not in charge.

@lannistunut

I think Chris Whitty is not pursuing the stragety he would want, he is a political advisor, he is not in charge.

Do you think he says what he doesn’t want to when briefing MPs?

He backed this and explained why summer was a good time.

Did you listen and dismiss?

@herecomesthsun - why do you think cases will peak within the next month and come back down. Magic? Why do you think all those SPI-M modelled curves have peaks then reductions?

The only sensible thing to do in the summer is infect and vaccinate as many people as possible. That is the only way you influence R in the winter.

Whitty must have said a hundred times 'the decisions are made by ministers'. He will have sent hundreds of official emails saying 'if you do x then this many people will die'. He will release these if there is ever an inquiry.

I think if you want restrictions to continue over the summer (and reopen when, Winter?) you need to own that. Dressing it up and calling it ‘being sensible’ doesn’t cut it. What exactly is ‘being sensible?’ Because, as we know even low levels of restrictions have a huge economic impact and with the high levels of vaccinations we have, the current relatively low dearth rate and the lack of pressure on the NHS in the Summer, I would say continuing many harmful restrictions isn’t sensible.

Especially if you plan to ditch them in Winter? And if you don’t when would you like these restrictions to actually end (whilst the economy gets trashed month after month)

@lannistunut

Whitty must have said a hundred times 'the decisions are made by ministers'. He will have sent hundreds of official emails saying 'if you do x then this many people will die'. He will release these if there is ever an inquiry.

Yes and he still advised them in his own words re summer.

Did you actually listen?

Or just seeking out phrases that back your view.

@lannistunut

I think Chris Whitty is not pursuing the stragety he would want, he is a political advisor, he is not in charge.

He said it was the best strategy and that he strongly agreed with it.

A lot of people don't fully understand Whitty's role, the role of advisors generally I think.

Giant toadstool: the 'problem' is that if people catch Covid they can become very unwell and we have no idea of what the long term consequences are. We don't have the resources to treat them nor to support them if they cannot work'look after themselves and their families.

@lannistunut

A lot of people don't fully understand Whitty's role, the role of advisors generally I think.

A lot of people cannot listen and separate what he says.

If you are more attuned to noticing what he is saying you’ll find out what he is advising.