SAGE adviser says achieving herd immunity by letting cases rise is Govt plan now

[herecomesthsun]

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims

“What we are seeing is a decision by the government to get as many people infected as possible, as quickly as possible [e.g. in nightclubs], while using rhetoric about caution as a way of putting the blame on the public for the consequences,” said Prof Robert West, a health psychologist at University College London who participates in Sage’s behavioural science subgroup.

“It looks like the government judges that the damage to health and healthcare services will be worth the political capital it will gain from this approach,” West said, adding that ministers appear to believe the strategy is now sustainable – unlike last year – because of the vaccine rollout.

It's obvious.

The government are willing to give millions of our children Long Covid just so they get a boost in the polls.

Should be noted that Prof West...is also on Independent SAGEs advisory group

So is Prof Drury, who is also quoted in the article - the Guardian forgot to mention that as well.

we could however open up as much as possible with small voluntary restrictions to support the vaccines and limit spread as far as we can.

Isn’t that exactly what we’ve done? People are free to adopt whatever voluntary restrictions they like. No one is forcing them to socialise, or to stop wearing a mask.

I think this is a great opportunity to see what the public actually wants. If people are happy to continue living under restrictions they will voluntarily do so.

@herecomesthsun that article is from 14 March, before we went into lockdown. In the end, that's not how it played out. There was pushback against the HI policy and it was (thankfully) abandoned.

Even had it gone ahead, there were no vaccines at the time which would help with that aim. 93% of adults now have antibodies. It's not the same situation at all.

@NannyAndJohn

It's obvious.

The government are willing to give millions of our children Long Covid just so they get a boost in the polls.

Yeah, pretty sure the cabinet sat round and said “fuck the children”.

Interesting piece about Indenpendent SAGE in the Telegraph:

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/17/revealed-independent-sage-run-left-wing-group-including-anti/

@NannyAndJohn

It's obvious.

The government are willing to give millions of our children Long Covid just so they get a boost in the polls.

Given the latest polls, if that's their aim it's not working.

@MarshaBradyo

small voluntary restrictions

What exactly are you talking about

And if voluntary how is it different to now

In fact on train everyone wore a mask as it’s stronger messaging than voluntary on London pt

What else would you want?

Ok, well we can't actually change the law, so restrictions are going to be voluntary aren't they?

So, some ideas

• masks with the previously level of force ideally. After all, people could claim exemptions. More formal encouragement in place.

• vaccines for 12-17 if they want them

• actually giving bloody vaccines to vulnerable kids which is not happening with any urgency where we are

• better level of public scientific education about covid

• ventilation in schools funded

• vaccine passports for nightclubs, if needed, should not take 2 months to come in, the horse will have bolted

China will have vaccinated everyone including young children, plus they have expensive and comprehensive surveillance of cases.

I'm not ever going to hold China up as an example as they are a totalitarian regime, but I don't think they will be opt for herd immunity by infection, they will pursue herd immunity by vaccination if possible.

Pursuing herd immunity by infection is a powerful symbol of total failure, at this stage.

[quote TheVampiresWife]@herecomesthsun that article is from 14 March, before we went into lockdown. In the end, that's not how it played out. There was pushback against the HI policy and it was (thankfully) abandoned.

Even had it gone ahead, there were no vaccines at the time which would help with that aim. 93% of adults now have antibodies. It's not the same situation at all.[/quote]
Yep. Surely people interested in herd immunity would have noticed it didn’t happen.

[quote userperuser]Interesting piece about Indenpendent SAGE in the Telegraph:

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/17/revealed-independent-sage-run-left-wing-group-including-anti/[/quote]
The Telegraph gives a huge amount of support to Us For Them, a front group for anti lockdowners who funding and organisation is highly suspect. Their main aim seems to be to ensure that as many children as possible catch covid.

Indie SAGE by contrast consist of highly respected academic professionals.

It is so much easier to attack the individuals than answer their arguments coherently.

[quote userperuser]Interesting piece about Indenpendent SAGE in the Telegraph:

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/17/revealed-independent-sage-run-left-wing-group-including-anti/[/quote]
It isn't that interesting, this has always been on their website. Also political persuasion does not mean their science is incorrect.

Attacking scientists politically is what Trump always did, and is a sign you can't discredit their arguments scientifically.

@lannistunut

China will have vaccinated everyone including young children, plus they have expensive and comprehensive surveillance of cases.

I'm not ever going to hold China up as an example as they are a totalitarian regime, but I don't think they will be opt for herd immunity by infection, they will pursue herd immunity by vaccination if possible.

Pursuing herd immunity by infection is a powerful symbol of total failure, at this stage.

Good luck with their vaccine which is proving to have lower efficacy.

Yeah, pretty sure the cabinet sat round and said “fuck the children”.

Of course they didn't say that aloud, but they certainly haven't given children a second thought throughout.

Attacking scientists politically is what Trump always did, and is a sign you can't discredit their arguments scientifically

SAGE and Independent SAGE really?

The AIM initially was for herd immunity prior to the first lockdown. For example, Cheltenham Festival DID happen.

As you comment, this plan DIDN'T work, hence the first lockdown.

@NakedAttraction

we could however open up as much as possible with small voluntary restrictions to support the vaccines and limit spread as far as we can.

Isn’t that exactly what we’ve done? People are free to adopt whatever voluntary restrictions they like. No one is forcing them to socialise, or to stop wearing a mask.

I think this is a great opportunity to see what the public actually wants. If people are happy to continue living under restrictions they will voluntarily do so.

This only works if people live in sealed bubbles. The person in the nightclub tonight is the same person who sits on the bus next to someone who is more vulnerable ( and who has to get the bus to go to work) next Thursday when they are infectious but don't yet have symptoms. They visit a family member with children on Wednesday evening and inadvertently pass Covid onto one of the children who then pass it on to other children in their holiday club. One of these other children visits grandma the next weekend... etc etc

@userperuser

The Telegraph is completely anti-scientific, that is why it seeks to discredit the scientists themselves.

@lonelyplanet

Yeah, pretty sure the cabinet sat round and said “fuck the children”.

Of course they didn't say that aloud, but they certainly haven't given children a second thought throughout.

They sat round and said "who do we not save?" apparently

Whatever the situation with China's vaccine currently I just don't see them giving up. They pride themselves on technological soultions, on the organisation of the state.

The UK government can only fail because they think it is acceptable politically to do so here.

lannistunut

It’s a news reporter.

Of couse it's the plan - it's the best strategy available.

You either do that, or go for weld-doors-shut lockdown and delay for no reason.

An exit wave is inevitable, and hopefully it is now peaking or close.

The Telegraph is fine with quoting scientists that support its own positions, and has been able to find plenty there.

We are operating in an area of massive uncertainty and complexity with multiple competing trade-offs in every area of life for every action we could take. There is no single voice of The Science here.

@herecomesthsun

The AIM initially was for herd immunity prior to the first lockdown. For example, Cheltenham Festival DID happen.

As you comment, this plan DIDN'T work, hence the first lockdown.

You said we tried it. We didn't. We locked down before infections rocketed. One Cheltenham Festival does not a herd immunity attempt make.

@lannistunut

Whatever the situation with China's vaccine currently I just don't see them giving up. They pride themselves on technological soultions, on the organisation of the state.

The UK government can only fail because they think it is acceptable politically to do so here.

Yet they’re using a lower efficacy vaccine rather than another not their own which is higher.

So no I don’t think I’d hold them up as caring that much.