SAGE adviser says achieving herd immunity by letting cases rise is Govt plan now

[herecomesthsun]

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims

“What we are seeing is a decision by the government to get as many people infected as possible, as quickly as possible [e.g. in nightclubs], while using rhetoric about caution as a way of putting the blame on the public for the consequences,” said Prof Robert West, a health psychologist at University College London who participates in Sage’s behavioural science subgroup.

“It looks like the government judges that the damage to health and healthcare services will be worth the political capital it will gain from this approach,” West said, adding that ministers appear to believe the strategy is now sustainable – unlike last year – because of the vaccine rollout.

herd immunity won't work, we tried it already remember

Did we? I must have forgotten that strategy against all the many months of restrictions, including 3 lockdowns.

There are two choices. 1) aim for heed immunity. 2) wait for the virus to (hopefully) mutate into a version that doesn’t make people as sick.

Covid has shown absolutely no signs of 2) so far so that could be a long wait.

The policy is less of an issue than the messaging imo, the simultaneous advice to do whatever we like but also be careful. Opening up now might work, in which case it'll be "vote for us, we're geniuses!" Or it might not, in which case it'll be "we TOLD you to be careful, you murderous morons" and a few headlines about irresponsible young people. It's pretty sickening given that people's lives and livelihoods are at stake. I wish they'd just be honest about the plan - to get as many people infected as possible, quickly, without the NHS falling over - and tell us how it's going and when we need to slow down a bit.

herd immunity won't work, we tried it already remember

When?

www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00324-2/fulltext#seccesectitle0013
www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.432474v2

The whole rhetoric of ‘blame’ is unhelpful imho. We have a massive wave now because of delta, not because the government of the population gave it a signed permission slip to infect people.

It’s a virus that transmits through social interaction. There is only so much and for so long that we can limit social interaction enough to stop it. Yeah the government cocked up a lot of things, but the idea that ‘blame’ must lie with either them or with the public because it’s got to be somebody’s fault is just fundamentally off.

Those were links to the studies showing that Covid impacts the brain which has long term consequences

We got rid of our pond when we had babies. We managed the risk close to home. We took them sailing when they were bigger; we managed that risk.

There will be a risk of catching this virus, but we don't actively want to catch it, for a lot of reasons.

For example,
-the immunity does not persist.
-It appears to wane after 6 months or so.
-You could in fact die.

• Or give the virus to a loved one- who could die.
• you could end up with scarred lungs etc and possible long term disability
• There could be mutations.

Quite importantly, the longer we all delay catching it the more chance medicine has of finding ways to manage the illness better so that people survive with fewer long term consequences.

The herd immunity idea has been repeatedly debunked.

So there will be residual risk but we can manage the risk so we aren't actually locked down but we are careful, with as low community transmission as possible.

Or, then again we could be foolish. After all, we did vote Johnson into power.

@MarshaBradyo

herd immunity won't work, we tried it already remember

When?

remember the first wave?

remember the first wave?

Did it get stopped by lockdown?

Or did it continue until everyone was infected?

Really strange to forget the first lockdown

remember the first wave?

We didn't have vaccines or in fact any knowledge of Covid so not remotely comparable

@NakedAttraction

herd immunity won't work, we tried it already remember

Did we? I must have forgotten that strategy against all the many months of restrictions, including 3 lockdowns.

There are two choices. 1) aim for heed immunity. 2) wait for the virus to (hopefully) mutate into a version that doesn’t make people as sick.

Covid has shown absolutely no signs of 2) so far so that could be a long wait.

herd immunity isn't a goer scientifically

we could however open up as much as possible with small voluntary restrictions to support the vaccines and limit spread as far as we can.

@Marguerite2000

Cases have been falling for the last 4 days. It would seem the strategy is already working.

You might be right Marguerite, I hope you are. I do think it's a little early to say though.

remember the first wave?

Yep. Still not remembering going for HI, though.

Herd immunity won't work because you can catch covid more than once. The government's risk assessment for the delta variant has just been updated and makes this clear.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-variant-risk-assessments

Israel are also finding that those vaccinated in January are already losing immunity. Although we can give boosters it will take time and there will be large numbers still vulnerable while we wait.
www.i24news.tv/en/news/coronavirus/1626980447-vaccine-39-effective-at-halting-virus-transmission-91-against-serious-illness-israel-s-health-ministry-says

Cases are falling quite dramatically where I am in the NE, too. We've had the highest rates in the country for weeks so it's cautiously encouraging.

@EnemyOfEducationNo1

Those were links to the studies showing that Covid impacts the brain which has long term consequences

This is my primary worry re. deliberately infecting children.

On a personal level I do not want my children to be harmed.

On a national level, a drop in intelligence will impact our future economy.

The 'fuck it, who cares if kids suffer long term' approach is not wise, the first job is protect your citizens because they are the foundation of your nation;s success.

@EnemyOfEducationNo1

I wonder if the herd immunity proponents would feel the same if catching the virus led to a hugely increased risk of Parkinson's, Lewy body dementia, or similar in the near future. They have already proved that even mild infection leads to cognitive impairment, and a study on rhesus monkeys found Lewy bodies and brain damage in ALL monkeys, even those who had it asymptomatically.

Yep we don't know enough about CV to push HI as a way out.

Which is why so few countries have advocated it, even China, hardly known for putting humanity ahead of the economy.

As this Govt has form for blaming everyone but themselves, why is it a surprise they have sought to put the responsibility for the spread of CV onto the public?

People still don't understand why herd immunity doesn't work. That in itself is a worry.

@OliveTree75

remember the first wave?

We didn't have vaccines or in fact any knowledge of Covid so not remotely comparable

we still don't have enough vaccines in place to give herd immunity, so we would still have quite a lot of deaths potentially

and the vaccines do appear to wear off a bit (as has seemed to happen in Israel) - though I still am very glad of the degree of protection they do offer

small voluntary restrictions

What exactly are you talking about

And if voluntary how is it different to now

In fact on train everyone wore a mask as it’s stronger messaging than voluntary on London pt

What else would you want?

blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/07/16/kit-yates-how-can-we-reach-herd-immunity/

Delta means that we cannot rely just on vaccines. We also need public health measures.

@Bovrilly

The policy is less of an issue than the messaging imo, the simultaneous advice to do whatever we like but also be careful. Opening up now might work, in which case it'll be "vote for us, we're geniuses!" Or it might not, in which case it'll be "we TOLD you to be careful, you murderous morons" and a few headlines about irresponsible young people. It's pretty sickening given that people's lives and livelihoods are at stake. I wish they'd just be honest about the plan - to get as many people infected as possible, quickly, without the NHS falling over - and tell us how it's going and when we need to slow down a bit.

If they are going for herd immunity, they should state it. If it is a good idea, we can all then support it.

They are lying, because they know it is not the right thing to do for the population. When a government is lying, you know they are doing something that is actually bad for you.

@GiveMeNovocain

He's a behavioural psychologist. I'm not sure when he became an expert in pandemic handling. Continued restrictions aren't a low cost or risk option.

But he is literally commenting here on the psychology band its influence on behaviour!

@TheVampiresWife

remember the first wave?

Yep. Still not remembering going for HI, though.

14 March 2020

fortune.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-uk-cases-herd-immunity-covid-19/

At the heart of that outcry: a policy to push for "herd immunity" to the virus, which would involve allowing at least 40 million Britons to become infected in the hopes of building up a long-term, society-wide resistance to the disease.

"Our aim is to try and reduce the peak [of the infections], broaden the peak, not suppress it completely," Patrick Vallance, chief scientific advisor to the U.K. government, told BBC Radio 4's Today program on Friday. "Also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission."

Herd immunity is raised by SAGE advisor so is he wrong to use it?

He seems a bit behind the times with his thinking.

Those going on about China etc what do you think will happen after borders open?