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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

999 replies

boys3 · 23/07/2021 21:28

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

OP posts:
Thread gallery
147
Itsprobablynotcominghome · 25/07/2021 07:15

@Bordois

Don't know why the dashboard can't be updated with the data that we do have, then we could see how much testing has been carried out 😒
Don’t think they update testing figures at weekend.

Unless I’m unaware of a different source, we can’t be sure testing hasn’t dropped off a cliff until Monday. (Testing data is up to 22nd July).

MarshaBradyo · 25/07/2021 07:17

Re-infection is being monitored isn’t it. People sound worried ‘they’ are missing it.

New national surveillance of possible COVID-19 reinfection, published by PHE
New data suggests a low risk of COVID-19 reinfection in the population.

From:
Public Health England
Published
17 June 2021

www.gov.uk/government/news/new-national-surveillance-of-possible-covid-19-reinfection-published-by-phe

Itsprobablynotcominghome · 25/07/2021 07:24

Positive cases not being captured at all > positive cases being captured but disregarded due to previous positive result.

By probably several orders of magnitude.

everythingthelighttouches · 25/07/2021 08:26

MarshaBradyo

Re-infection is being monitored isn’t it. People sound worried ‘they’ are missing it.

I don’t think anyone on this thread sounds worried, do you mean people on Twitter?

The PHE press release you linked to has the reinfection survey from 17 June, which presents data collected up to 30th May.

“There were 15,893 possible reinfections with SARS-CoV-2 identified up to 30 May 2021”

By the way only a few of those are actually confirmed and lots more are pending (I suspect it takes a while to confirm which may be to do with processing data and also there needs to be a 90 day window between infections for a case to be eligible).

Although reinfection data is published in the weekly surveillance report, I’ve just checked the latest report (8th July) and it still has that data from 30th May as the latest.

This section of the weekly surveillance reports is going to be updated monthly.

But PHE do have more readily available de-duplication data daily according to Pouria Hadjibagheri (dashboard technical lead).

It would be a useful signal to watch. I wish it were available.

MarshaBradyo · 25/07/2021 08:31

I don’t think anyone on this thread sounds worried, do you mean people on Twitter?

No I don’t do Twitter. I only see what gets linked on here sometimes.

I more meant this

Did you know this???
Ah, that's why they think herd immunity will work!

Sounded as people were concerned,

everythingthelighttouches · 25/07/2021 08:33

While we are in this phase of transitioning to endemicity in the U.K.- so most people will become much more exposed than they were before, as there is still a large pool of naive hosts available to circulate the virus- it would be good to know reinfection rate.

(And hopefully we would find it reassuringly low)

MarshaBradyo · 25/07/2021 08:38

But PHE do have more readily available de-duplication data daily according to Pouria Hadjibagheri (dashboard technical lead).

It is being monitored, you’d like to see more recent update is what I’m taking from that. May 30th being latest to public.

everythingthelighttouches · 25/07/2021 08:42

“I more meant this
Did you know this???
Ah, that's why they think herd immunity will work!”

Well you’re putting two separate sentences from two different posters together there.

I wrote the first sentence

“Did you know this???”

Because I think it is interesting and very much about data, and understanding what is available to us, which is what I have been posting about on this thread for a very long time. Knowing the posters on this thread, I think it will be of interest.

Just pointing out an interesting quirk of the data and one which is pertinent to our understanding.

everythingthelighttouches · 25/07/2021 08:45

It is being monitored, you’d like to see more recent update is what I’m taking from that. May 30th being latest to public

Yes. I expect it is in the next report. But I also am wondering if it would be useful to see de-duplications or another suitable metric more regularly?

What do you think?

MarshaBradyo · 25/07/2021 08:56

Monthly would be fine but as long as it’s being monitored. Good it’s being followed.

That Twitter post looked like it was trying to provoke a reaction though as if reinfection hasn’t been a consideration.

WarriorN · 25/07/2021 08:56

There will be reinfection data that's not reliable, as the only people tested in the first wave were those who went into hospital.

Mass testing began as the wave started to decrease.

QueenStromba · 25/07/2021 08:58

@everythingthelighttouches

“I more meant this Did you know this??? Ah, that's why they think herd immunity will work!”

Well you’re putting two separate sentences from two different posters together there.

I wrote the first sentence

“Did you know this???”

Because I think it is interesting and very much about data, and understanding what is available to us, which is what I have been posting about on this thread for a very long time. Knowing the posters on this thread, I think it will be of interest.

Just pointing out an interesting quirk of the data and one which is pertinent to our understanding.

And what I meant by the other part is that once we've all had it they can pretend that case rates are zero.
herecomesthsun · 25/07/2021 09:15

@WarriorN

There will be reinfection data that's not reliable, as the only people tested in the first wave were those who went into hospital.

Mass testing began as the wave started to decrease.

Wouldn't the ONS data provide a prospective account of that?
lonelyplanet · 25/07/2021 09:19

I’ve just checked the latest report (8th July) and it still has that data from 30th May as the latest.

It is published weekly. The latest updates are here:
www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season

WarriorN · 25/07/2021 09:22

When did ons data start?

Reinfection data is important as we don't know how long natural immunity lasts? Or if a new variant is more likely to reinfect?

lonelyplanet · 25/07/2021 09:22

The current data is here.

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY
Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY
lonelyplanet · 25/07/2021 09:23

Sorry images didn't attach.

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY
Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY
lonelyplanet · 25/07/2021 09:24

You've now got them twice for good measure!

MarshaBradyo · 25/07/2021 09:31

@lonelyplanet

Sorry images didn't attach.
Ok thanks - weekly and looks really low
everythingthelighttouches · 25/07/2021 09:42

Fantastic! Thanks lonely will have a read now. Not entirely sure why the page I went to before didn’t have the more recent reports.

WarriorN · 25/07/2021 09:47

Very useful thanks lonely!

everythingthelighttouches · 25/07/2021 10:07

Aha! They moved the landing pages that week, hence me clicking on the wrong report before.

I think the numbers are those detected in one week.
Could someone check?

The text ahead of the graphs is also useful

“ The following figures present population data based on the first time that individuals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 through PCR and/or lateral flow device testing in England together with those who have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 through PCR and/or lateral flow testing with an interval of at least 90 days between two consecutive positive tests. To the end of week 27 in 2021 (to 4 July 2021) 23,105 possible reinfections have been identified, of which 66 have been confirmed by identification of genetically distinct specimens from each illness episode (see Table 1).
For a possible reinfection to be categorised as confirmed it requires sequencing of a specimen at each episode and for the later specimen to be genetically distinct from that sequenced from the earlier episode. Availability of such dual sequencing is currently very low for several reasons; sequencing was not widely undertaken early in the pandemic; LFD test results do not allow sequencing and some PCR samples have a low viral load where sequencing cannot be undertaken. To meet the definition of a probable reinfection requires sequencing at the later episode that identifies a variant that was not circulating at the time of the earlier episode. Further details on the methodology, as well as additional data on reinfections are available in the graph set published alongside this report.
It is important to consider reinfections in the context of first infections and there is a 90- day delay before people with a first infection can become eligible for reinfection.”

It sounds like it is going to be very difficult to get confirmed reinfections, so not sure how useful that data will be.

Although there could be some interesting data in the reinfections based on different initial or second strain.

If I have read this right, in the week to 4th July, 23,101 people tested positive for a second time, at least 90 days after their first test, by either LFT or PCR.

In the same week (although daily testing data goes out to 5th July) the total number of positives by either method was 4,307,618

So only 0.5% of all reported cases that week.

In theory, this figure should be moving up week on week right?

borntobequiet · 25/07/2021 11:12

More or Less on the advantages/ limitations of vaccines.

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p09q88tl

alreadytaken · 25/07/2021 11:37

On a data thread I am surprised to see so little discussion of the position in Wales. 90% of the population have had at least 1 dose of vaccine and nearly 78% a second dose. They still have some measures in place - like masks on public transport. Their case rates are staying low, their deaths are in single figures.

It makes an interesting comparison with England - and will be more so in 10 days when they have kept nightclubs shut and England has not.

lonelyplanet · 25/07/2021 11:41

I agree Wales are doing really well. I was expecting some spread from NW England in the last few weeks, but it isn't happening as fast as the spread throughout the rest of England.