Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Just nightclubs?

And extended family gatherings (larger groups at weddings, birthday parties, etc). It is another common setting for super spreading events.

I really want cases to go down or flatten but we are in the period of complete uncertainty. Realistically, we will only know the answer in 10 days time.

I thought the key was to use school firebreak to counter the rise.

So I accept there will be increase maybe more than schools decrease but as we move on more vaccinated.

We just have to peak within capacity.

@Quartz2208

But also how much has actually changed since "freedom day" or big reopening"

We went out for the day today and masks were still worn inside, people still gave people space in queues and did SD where possible.

This has been my experience as well.

I don’t feel like anything has changed really.

I have no idea what it’s like at night, but during the day people are still wearing masks and staying at a (less than 2 meters) distance.

In fact if anything I am seeing more people wearing masks outside than they were a week or so ago.

We don't get out much but certainly from what I've seen nothing has changed around here, waiters in restaurants are still wearing masks or visors, hairdressers are & shoos are requesting them, and as far as I can see people are complying. I did speak to a young man who went clubbing on the first night & he said it was horrendous - heaving with people & quite scary. Other than that & some gigs/festivals I don't feel much has changed. And of course schools have finished (Weds 21st around here).

Everything is definitely more relaxed here in terms of mask wearing etc. Definitely fewer people doing it, especially younger ones.

I really hope case numbers are dropping for real, but I do wonder whether a lot of people are just yearning so much for the summer holidays that they are not testing (lft or pcr), unless it’s mandated.

And with schools out, there’s less incentive /no mandate to test . What do others think?

The ONS survey will be helpful to understand it, when it catches up next week.

@Notmulan

I really hope case numbers are dropping for real, but I do wonder whether a lot of people are just yearning so much for the summer holidays that they are not testing (lft or pcr), unless it’s mandated.

And with schools out, there’s less incentive /no mandate to test . What do others think?

The ONS survey will be helpful to understand it, when it catches up next week.

While there will be a drop in testing, I.e schools.

There will also be a drop in infection due to no school mixing at schools. Yes there may be a few cases were missing out on, but I wouldn't say 23k cases will be being missed.

Don't know why the dashboard can't be updated with the data that we do have, then we could see how much testing has been carried out 😒

I think fewer people will be testing.
The town over from us has always had high levels & recently has surge testing. Now that it has stopped they have slower rate than we do. I'm sure it's simply because not so many people are testing. Plus all those school staff & pupils who were supposedly testing twice a week.

the ONS survey next week will be interesting

The ONS survey will be helpful to understand it, when it catches up next week.

ONS tends to underestimate the speed of the fall if cases are declining fast. We saw it in January when ONS numbers appeared flattish (even though real cases were falling off the cliff).

ONS program now tests their participants once a month (in weekly tranches) and, as a result, runs the risk of picking up old infections (with positive PCRs). We will only be able to see the real picture from later reports.

The better indicator might be hospitalisations. If they start falling by next Friday, the drop in cases is real.

Of course, there is a risk they might go back up if the July 19th changes led to a new spike in cases.

Do you know when the next REACT will be available?

www.gov.uk/government/news/extra-covid-19-support-deployed-to-north-east?fbclid=IwAR3Z6yXcwmcR-kJy7cIKpBZ8i_MMZLAIy3bAOB9H1sHgARXsNMmh4sGhZZA
Doesn’t seem
Like cases are likely to drop soon in the North East

I thought cases were already dropping in the NE?

www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/covid-infections-falling-everywhere-north-21121763?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

Covid cases are now falling in every part of the North East, according to new Government figures.

So has the govt acted too late as usual then??

Umm given Scotland’s cases fell after the team exited the euros and schools began to break up (and note no lockdown was introduced) I am unsure why there are so many saying the same couldn’t happen in England? Also I think it becomes a bit unbelievable that a country like ours which has some of the highest levels of testing in the world is not doing enough testing! Italy did around 250,000 tests today when ours get to 800,000 we think it’s looking low even with the difference in population that difference is huge!

Personally I think given the Scotland example our cases are def falling I do agree that this may not be maintained given the increased relaxation which Scotland hasn’t done yet but for now it would seem odd to me that Scotland fell without a lockdown but England never could? England’s and Scotland’s paths are different now with England’s increased relaxation but before not that much!

@JanFebAnyMonth

So has the govt acted too late as usual then??

They get to claim the credit for it working 😉

The government have the team and the proven approach, they would always be sending them to wherever has the most cases right now. That just happens to be the NE.

wintertravel1980 cases in Scotland didn't start decreasing 5 days after the last match on the 22/06.
The peak by reporting date was 01/07. By specimen dates, 28/06 - 3,930, 29/06 - 3,893, 30/06 - 3,929.
Those dates are 5 days after the majority of schools finished, between the 23/06 and 25/06.
Also of note, unless finishing school, pupils in exam years are back in school, post exams, till the end of term, to start their higher/advanced higher courses.
Football had an effect, especially amongst young males, but it's school, maybe helped by dry, warm, un-Scottish weather.

Saying 31,795 new cases in UK today on Worldometer, excellent news.

Perihelion

I have previously attached the graphs of Scotland's cases by age groups. Have included it again.

The drop of cases starting from 28/6 was driven by young men aged between 20-24. Some of them might have been teachers and parents but I suspect they would have been a minority. It is unlikely this group would have been impacted by school holidays so soon. Football, however, perfectly fits into the schedule.

Did you know this???

“ I hadn’t realised that ALL reinfections get taken out of the daily “People Tested Positive” figure, regardless of when their previous infection(s) occurred.
The quantity of ‘de-duplicated’ cases is not published, so this clearly misrepresents the number of current infections!”

mobile.twitter.com/tonyivb1/status/1418933755985661960/photo/1

Ah, that's why they think herd immunity will work!