Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Surely schools closing will have made a big difference already? I know that they have only just closed in some areas, but all of the ones in my county closed on 9 July, and I know that other areas closed on 16th. That must have reduced transmission in those areas?

Plus more people socialising outside because of the hot weather? End of football? And loads of people pinged by the app?

I'd love to believe that this is it and cases have peaked, but it seems much more likely that it's just a temporary dip, and that numbers will start to rise again as a result of "freedom day"?

It's almost as if certain posters are disappointed by a drop in case numbers.

@PamelaGotown

It's almost as if certain posters are disappointed by a drop in case numbers.

Not at all, just afraid of getting our hopes up too much!

@PamelaGotown

It's almost as if certain posters are disappointed by a drop in case numbers.

This is not the thread for that kind of ridiculousness.

If you want to make digs at pther posters, there are many other threads for that. This is for discussion of the data.

@AlexaShutUp

Surely schools closing will have made a big difference already? I know that they have only just closed in some areas, but all of the ones in my county closed on 9 July, and I know that other areas closed on 16th. That must have reduced transmission in those areas?

Plus more people socialising outside because of the hot weather? End of football? And loads of people pinged by the app?

I'd love to believe that this is it and cases have peaked, but it seems much more likely that it's just a temporary dip, and that numbers will start to rise again as a result of "freedom day"?

I'm not convinced enough closed, many only closed yesterday

@Lockheart yes, I agree with a lot of your points

@PamelaGotown I am very happy that cases numbers are going down.

However, at the same time it’s too early to tell exactly if this means we have reached the peak or if this is just a blip.

This is why the next few weeks data is crucial.

Hopefully cases will continue to fall and hospitalisations and deaths will follow.

We have never really been in this situation so it’s difficult to know exactly how this will play out.

@PamelaGotown

It's almost as if certain posters are disappointed by a drop in case numbers.

Discussing the numbers, that's what we do here.

@PamelaGotown

It's almost as if certain posters are disappointed by a drop in case numbers.

Maybe. This thread does feel like this sometimes.

Here we go again 🙄
Data Thread!

@Mycatispretty

Here we go again 🙄 Data Thread!

Do you post data? Or just do 🙄 emojis

May have missed it

England Hospitalisations:

People in hospital increased for two weeks in early July at >40% per week. (To 10th: 48% increase from 1636 to 2429, and to 17th: 42% 2429 to 3442).

Although we won’t get the final data point until Monday/Tuesday. Currently it is 4401 up from 3442, which is a 28% increase. So almost impossible that it will reach anywhere near 42% with one days data to go (+42% would be 4887, more likely it’ll go to about 4600 which would be a 35% rise).

So that’s pretty promising to me. And if these recent lower case numbers are genuine I would expect a big slow down in this, and maybe even a reversal in 10-14 days time. We’ll see.

Maybe. This thread does feel like this sometimes

Data is always open to interpretation, this thread has spent time being equally more optimistic and pessimistic, if backed by data I think either is valid.

I read the thread. I have followed it when bigchocfrenzy started it. I find the data and statistics easy to follow and somehow reassuring but it is being derailed by a minority of posters

Are we still surge testing?

Is there ever break down between symptomatic and asymptomatic?

If surge testing plus close contact testing (lack of school bubbles bursting means that less contacts are PCR testing - DD and DS bubbles burst this term and both times a request was made to PCR test) has meant less PCR tests being done a lot less asymptomatic cases will be picked up.

If that is true then hospitalisations may well fall as well as you are missing the infections that dont cause hospitalisations. It may well cause it to plateau though as infections keep on recurring

Hi all - does anyone know the figures for new cases today? Not sure why, but the Worldometer for UK is not showing yet.

@PamelaGotown

It's almost as if certain posters are disappointed by a drop in case numbers.

Nope. It's just surprising that rates of a virus that spreads through social contact would start decreasing when social contacts go up (after "freedom day") - that's why it's too early to tell, though, as this is only the first weekend since restrictions were lifted and many will be going out and mixing more today and tomorrow. Obviously it would be great if this was the vaccine-effect, and we won't see the large rise in cases that was predicted by pretty much all scientists.

Leafy

Because of technical difficulties in processing England deaths data, today's update is delayed.
from here

@pussycatlickinglollyices

Thanks for that - will check a bit later

Hi all - does anyone know the figures for new cases today?

PHE tweeted the case numbers:

On Saturday 24 July, 31,795 new cases were reported across the UK.

The delay is due to reporting of deaths.

But also how much has actually changed since "freedom day" or big reopening"

We went out for the day today and masks were still worn inside, people still gave people space in queues and did SD where possible.

Leafy from twitter (PHE page)

Today's update to the #COVID19 Dashboard is experiencing a delay.

On Saturday 24 July, 31,795 new cases were reported across the UK.

46,519,998 people have now received the 1st dose of a #vaccine.

@Quartz2208

But also how much has actually changed since "freedom day" or big reopening"

We went out for the day today and masks were still worn inside, people still gave people space in queues and did SD where possible.

Exactly same here.

Masks on train and supermarket plus local store limits to numbers.

Just nightclubs?

I think that school kids went out of school a bit early, what with bubbles closing etc and this would fit with numbers going down as they are probably a significant driver of infections. My point was about interpreting the data.

Not sure why we are having a bad tempered time on here.

@Mycatispretty

I read the thread. I have followed it when bigchocfrenzy started it. I find the data and statistics easy to follow and somehow reassuring but it is being derailed by a minority of posters

Yes maybe. A few find that not much anyone can do though.

I agree it was different at start with BCF. Been a long pandemic when you think how long these have been going.

@herecomesthsun

I think that school kids went out of school a bit early, what with bubbles closing etc and this would fit with numbers going down as they are probably a significant driver of infections. My point was about interpreting the data.

Not sure why we are having a bad tempered time on here.

I dont think it is just that they are a driver but also a massive source of testing and asymptomatic infection.

We were told to PCR test both times the bubbles burst and it did pick up some infections that wouldnt have otherwise been picked up (and given the nature of the contact 90 children going into isolation were not connected)