Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Thanks for confirming @MRex
I still can't understand the logic - come September my dc could be at school / I could be at work even if everyone else in our house was ill with Covid. Seems like a recipe for disaster to me...

If people are double jabbed then they are less likely to catch and less likely to transmit Covid. I'm also concerned about how it will work for teenagers as they could have an unvaccinated adult or other unvaccinated child with Covid in the house. I don't have concerns about adults; at some stage we have to trust vaccines to do their job and get on with life again.

Yes it's my dc that I'm most worried about (youngest is CV). Although I work in Early Years and we had several members of staff catch Covid at the end of term despite being double vaccinated - all were pretty ill (although not hospitalised) and, more worryingly, all passed it on to at least one family member. Completely anecdotal I know, but it does make me really concerned for September with zero mitigations in schools.

Thank you @MRex

I wonder if govt will widen list of symptoms to coincide with 16/8.

That would be great, but unlikely I feel ginger! Maybe a bit of rewording?

Yes MRex, I noticed that in the LFT study.

There was an interesting biopic on Chris Whitty on R4 last night, should anyone wish to listen. A very qualified guy, MBA and stuff, not just medical. And he lost his dad just before doing his A levels.

My prediction was 22000! Dropping 15% week on week at the moment.

🚨 Drop in daily admissions in England🚨

Weekly rolling average drops to 741 from a high of 793.

Weekly total in hospital in England to 31st July was +635, aka +14%.

Previous weeks:
to 10th: +45%
to 17th: +42%
to 24th: +30%

@Itsprobablynotcominghome

🚨 Drop in daily admissions in England🚨

Weekly rolling average drops to 741 from a high of 793.

*Ah made an error in my spreadsheet: 744 not 741.

@Itsprobablynotcominghome

🚨 Drop in daily admissions in England🚨

Weekly rolling average drops to 741 from a high of 793.

Great news!

@Itsprobablynotcominghome lots to feel positive about data wise!

Let's hope it continues that way

I’m tired so does this mean that there are signs of hospitalisations slowing down then?

Deaths seem to be spiking at the moment, so they might peak soon?

wonderful! looking good.

@SpringRainbow

I’m tired so does this mean that there are signs of hospitalisations slowing down then?

Deaths seem to be spiking at the moment, so they might peak soon?

Yes. It means the drop in cases is genuine, as people going into hospital is also declining.

It should translate into fewer people being in hospital soon, i.e. the total number coming down from approx 5200 in England currently.

The deaths will follow suit. However, they are pretty low IMO, so it’s harder to gauge.

Sadly, deaths will rise much higher in the Winter than we are currently seeing, people need to adjust their perspective for that.

Sadly, deaths will rise much higher in the Winter than we are currently seeing, people need to adjust their perspective for that.

I am hoping that the booster jabs will mean they will be lower than otherwise but we do have a tough winter ahead.

@Itsprobablynotcominghome thank you, this is definitely reassuring.

I was expecting a tough winter to be honest.

Just hoping it won’t be like last years.

Yes. It means the drop in cases is genuine, as people going into hospital is also declining.

Brilliant. So glad it wasn’t the alternative, hidden cases.

@Itsprobablynotcominghome do you know they will be so much higher in the winter?

I understand if cases are higher then deaths are but why would 50k cases in the summer translate into more than 50k cases in winter?

@SpringRainbow it won't be - we have the vaccines.... so it would make no sense for it to be as bad....

@Itsprobablynotcominghome sorry I mean do you know why *

@Itsprobablynotcominghome and I meant less in the summer - messed that typing right up sorry!

More will die in winter because:

1. Influenza A mixed with Covid proved to have a high death rate and there's more flu in winter
2. Less vitamin D and melatonin lead to generally weaker immune systems
3. More indoor activity, air is less humid than outside and less ventilation, so generally improved transmission
4. Cold dry weather seems to suit Covid and flu virus, possibly both can stay viable for longer in the air and on surfaces during winter.

Does covid prefer cold dry air to cold wet air? What evidence is there do you know?

There's been quite a lot of research and articles about relative humidity, I've no idea about the general value of them in terms of actual studies as it seemed obvious to me (perhaps it really isn't and I've mentally over-simplified), but here's one: www.uhhospitals.org/Healthy-at-UH/articles/2020/12/the-role-of-dry-winter-air-in-spreading-covid-19