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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

999 replies

boys3 · 23/07/2021 21:28

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

OP posts:
Thread gallery
147
wintertravel1980 · 31/07/2021 16:45

I wish the rest of the UK could do as well with vaccinations as Wales. 90.3% of adults in Wales have received their first doses and 80.6% got their second doses. This is simply incredible.

Of course, there are a few objective reasons for that (slightly higher median age, less transient population, etc) but the result is still very impressive. They handled the whole vaccination program really well.

boys3 · 31/07/2021 18:35

The Wales 1st Dose figure is not that far ahead of that for England 90.3% vs 88.4% - but the gap for second dose is nearer ten percentage points 80.6% vs 71.7%. The main dashboard does not show the age breakdown for Wales, and it would be interesting to compare the older groups' 2nd dose take up. Something less straightforward than it would first appear.

I've taken the latest English 2nd dose uptake from the dashboard, and those for Wales from research.senedd.wales/research-articles/covid-19-vaccination-data/

The English age band calculation uses NIMS; the Welsh uses.....???? - I think the inference is the ONS 2020 based mid year estimate. So not quite apples and apples

The dashboard uses 5 year age bands, aside from aged 90+ and the 18-24 group; the Welsh link starts at 80+; and uses ten year age bands for those under 50. I'm sure PH Wales has more detailed figures but I have not tried to hunt them out (direct links to them gratefully received).

So the graph only really compares the 50-80 age groups; the rest are included but with the caveats above. On those older groups the Welsh uptake is a little higher; not dissimilar to the overall 1st dose gap. I'd expect we'd see the gap in the younger groups narrow as the England 2nd dose roll out continues.

The link to the Wales data (scroll down a fair way has an interesting map showing take up by Welsh council area). The more urban areas, rather like England, lower take up than less urban / rural areas.

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY
OP posts:
HarveySchlumpfenburger · 31/07/2021 19:16

@sirfredfredgeorge

I'm not convinced there is a country where delta cases have fallen without some sort of intervention

So you're saying the UK's cases are not falling?

No, quite the opposite. The point was the U.K. spike is different everywhere else, because the peak everywhere else was caused by restrictions that limited opportunities for transmission.

The U.K. being an outlier because it appears to be the only place where delta appears to have peaked while restrictions were being lifted. I’m not convinced that’s to do with the virus itself in the way MRex hypothesised.

BigWoollyJumpers · 01/08/2021 10:11

RafaIsTheKingOfClay. Netherlands.

wintertravel1980 · 01/08/2021 10:22

Netherlands had to close nightclubs and discos so they are not completely "restrictions free".

Their vaccination rates (for 2 doses) and acquired immunity levels are slightly lower than ours and they were not as impacted by the Euro 2020 wave, so I am wondering if this gives us a bit more leeway with opening up.

Tuba437 · 01/08/2021 16:36

Another drop today. Just wandered if the wise @NannyAndJohn is around to explain why were not at 100k cases yet and we are constantly down week on week for about 10 days straight now?

BigWoollyJumpers · 01/08/2021 18:25

@Tuba437

Another drop today. Just wandered if the wise *@NannyAndJohn* is around to explain why were not at 100k cases yet and we are constantly down week on week for about 10 days straight now?
GrinGrinGrin
Panickingpavlova · 01/08/2021 20:25

I don't contribute much to these threads because I'm not clever in this way but I'm so grateful to the posters who digest all these stats etc and regurgitation for us.

However I'm so confused I keep diving in and out and all I see are strange references to "nanny" Grin

pinkpip100 · 01/08/2021 21:01

@Panickingpavlova I agree, it's actually really annoying on what I thought was a data thread.

Dghgcotcitc · 01/08/2021 21:14

Depends on what you mean by country Scotland rose then fell without extra restrictions (yes they had restrictions but didn’t bring in extra to deal with delta) then they began to fall England are now doing the same but about two weeks behind.

TheKeatingFive · 01/08/2021 21:25

Just wandered if the wise @NannyAndJohn is around to explain why were not at 100k cases yet and we are constantly down week on week for about 10 days straight now?

Oh I expect we’ll find it’s the fault of the noisy data. It usually is.

wintertravel1980 · 01/08/2021 22:16

Well... it might be a data thread but it is still a thread and some regular posters may occasionally go off topic and discuss unusual predictions made on the forum.

Of course, everyone is very welcome to put us back on track by adding their data and comments.

On this note, the cases for England still look good and most LAs are going down. The top potential watch areas I can see (based on @RP131 tables on twitter) are:

  • Lincoln (still);
  • Exeter;
  • Kingston upon Hull;
  • Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole;
  • Sheffield;
  • Torbay;
  • Leeds?
  • Brighton and Hove;
  • North Kesteven.

Most of these LAs were spared from the "Euro 2020" wave so it may be timing/catch up.

TheSunIsStillShining · 01/08/2021 23:04

I'm all happy the numbers are going down, but a little voice at the back of my head keeps asking for a credible and believable explanation as to why.

I was wondering -apart from the raw numbers- what other data sources should be analyzed to give plausible explanations.....

TheSunIsStillShining · 01/08/2021 23:05

ps. skipped a lot of pages, so if there was a commonly agreed upon explanation than I just might have missed it.

AbstractDot · 01/08/2021 23:18

I live in NE England and wasn't surprised by our wave as at every other peak we have been spared (excluding Tyne and Wear) so it seemed inevitable that one would hit us harder and without being scientific beyond my means, our lack of previous infection could mean their was much less natural immunity from other strains to prevent Delta ripping here.

Anecdotally, at the peak I knew of lots of people testing positive/isolating, it did feel rife here. Now, our numbers are less than a quarter of our peak and it feels as though this is reflected in the number of cases amongst people I know of.

Dustyboots · 01/08/2021 23:33

Sorry to ask on this thread - I'm currently trying to decide whether to be vaccinated.

Where can I find how many of those hospitalised and dying are vaccinated/unvaccinated please and what ages they are ...

thank you.

JanFebAnyMonth · 01/08/2021 23:55

Interesting study comparing lateral flow devices (includes general discussion of LFDs). Went looking for one to check if the new Orient Gene ones are as acccurate (!) as the Innova ones. Answer - not quite.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/999866/asymptomatic-testing-for-SARS-CoV-2-using-antigen-detecting-lateral-flow-devices-evidence-from-performance-data-Oct-2020-to-May-2021.pdf

MRex · 02/08/2021 06:06

@Dustyboots

Sorry to ask on this thread - I'm currently trying to decide whether to be vaccinated.

Where can I find how many of those hospitalised and dying are vaccinated/unvaccinated please and what ages they are ...

thank you.

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) Tweeted: Our new chart more clearly explains the paradox that a majority of older admissions are fully vaccinated.

This twitter thread discusses it in detail:
"At age 50 plus, 703 fully vaccinated hospital admissions are from a population of 19.1 million. Meanwhile, 458 unvaccinated are from a population of just 1.0 million."
t.co/sEIjcHJoDU twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1420074361965395975?s=20.

Good luck.

MRex · 02/08/2021 06:07

@Dustyboots - here that is in a chart:

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY
RainbowCrayons · 02/08/2021 06:26

Good to see the rate of increase in hospitalizations and deaths are leveling off more and more. Hopefully next week we will start to see a drop. And it suggests that it is following a genuine drop in cases rather than people not testing to avoid disruption to their holiday.

MRex · 02/08/2021 06:48

[quote JanFebAnyMonth]Interesting study comparing lateral flow devices (includes general discussion of LFDs). Went looking for one to check if the new Orient Gene ones are as acccurate (!) as the Innova ones. Answer - not quite.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/999866/asymptomatic-testing-for-SARS-CoV-2-using-antigen-detecting-lateral-flow-devices-evidence-from-performance-data-Oct-2020-to-May-2021.pdf[/quote]
Both of a Deeks take-down snuck in there: "Based on DHSC viral load analysis of the positive results, of the 2 positive samples detected by LFD antigen test, one was in the low viral load category (between 10k –1million copies / ml) and the other had minimal viral load and so was most likely not
infectious (

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY
MRex · 02/08/2021 06:50

(BIT not both)

pinkpip100 · 02/08/2021 09:42

Apologies if this is a stupid question, but I can't seem to find the answer anywhere. On 16th August when close contact isolation is set to end for double jabbed & under 18s - does this apply if someone in your household has symptoms or has tested positive too? All of the info I have read refers to being contacted by track & trace or pinged by the app, but nothing about household close contacts. Surely all contact is not equal and people are much more likely to become infected via someone in their household who they are in very regular close contact with, compared to someone they sat near to in a cafe for an hour? I feel like it's obvious but can't see anything to suggest that these types of contact will be treated differently. Can anyone help?

ILookAtTheFloor · 02/08/2021 09:52

I thought I'd read that household contacts will still have to isolate. I'm not sure though.

MRex · 02/08/2021 13:26

Household contacts are contacts, so they won't have to isolate if they are double jabbed and have no symptoms from 16th, here is the info www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-response-summer-2021-roadmap/moving-to-step-4-of-the-roadmap#fn:2:
On 16 August, the rules on self-isolating as a contact will change for people who are fully vaccinated [footnote 2: 14 days after the second dose], and for under 18s. Those not fully vaccinated will still need to isolate if they are contacts, and everyone will still have to isolate if they test positive, to protect themselves and others.