Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Doesn't "realistic probability" mean less than 50%? Also they are not saying that IFR will definitely be as high as 35%, just that it's possible a variant which causes serious disease "in a greater proportion of the population than has occurred to date" could arise. Could be only be very marginally higher. They then go on to say that the vaccines should hold up well and include various mitigations again (boosters etc etc).

Again, I'm not seeing that any of this is particularly dramatic news.

Just for some relief from all this big picture stuff - anecdata, certainly relevant to positivity / testing rates:

I need some more lateral flow tests, having exhausted my supply from school where I work/ DC attend. Schools were told not to give out kits for the holidays and the DfE advice is only that those attending summer activities at schools should continue testing. “However, testing will still be widely available over the summer and kits can be collected either from your local pharmacy or ordered online”

I go to Tesco pharmacy where I’ve got them before, for exam yr DD after she finished. They ask which question I can answer Yes to on their form where they have to record giving kits out.
⁃ Am I in a household with someone attending school? No, at least not for just over another month.
⁃ Am I going on holiday? No
⁃ Am I going to a workplace? No, at least not for just over another month.
⁃ Am I (something I can’t remember, maybe caring for someone)? Anyway the answer was definitely No.
So he won’t give me any tests. I pointed out that the NHS website still recommends that asymptomatic folk test twice a week.

Still a nope, something about when you’re meeting up with new people, couldn’t hear him through his mask, plastic screen , in busy supermarket. I said I’d be meeting up with friends etc - but apparently this did not meet the requirements.

So I came home and ordered some online (no questions at all there), but what about those that can’t do that? Testing centres apparently stopped giving out kits from 3 July.

So frustrating. No wonder people aren’t testing if asymptomatic.

So this thread from sailor scout refutes the CDC news re transmission of delta in vaccinated:

mobile.twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1421111487020609537

@Sunshinegirl82

Doesn't "realistic probability" mean less than 50%? Also they are not saying that IFR will definitely be as high as 35%, just that it's possible a variant which causes serious disease "in a greater proportion of the population than has occurred to date" could arise. Could be only be very marginally higher. They then go on to say that the vaccines should hold up well and include various mitigations again (boosters etc etc).

Again, I'm not seeing that any of this is particularly dramatic news.

Far less than that I would say

What this is saying is that it is something that could happen (very small chance) but something you need to be prepared for but not more than that

@Sunshinegirl82

It's interesting, when I read that paper (and particularly that section) I see that the impact is considered "medium" (so not high) and there seem to be quite a number of mitigations that can be put in place, principally, boosters for vulnerable groups (which I kind of thought was a given?).

I'm not sure that's all that dramatic really?

The section on antagenic shift referred to in the twitter article (section 2 of the paper) has a high impact for a new spike, medium/low for a spike from existing covid due to existing antibodies. The likelihood is shown for both as a realistic possibility.

@Indigopearl

But in the body of the text it suggests that the introduction of a new spike protein is "highly unlikely" because MERS is circulating at such low levels. It is the more benign coronaviruses that are already in circulation that are a higher risk and the suggested impact of recombination with those is medium/low.

@NannyAndJohn your main concern? Your biggest hope?

@Sunshinegirl82 ok that makes sense. So it is antagenic drift that seems to be the most likely risk under scenario 2 which is controlled with boosters.

The report needs a careful read (rather than Twitter version)

Thanks to Sunshine and Quartz for interpreting.

A lot of Lincoln students were still there last week. I know because DS went there for the weekend and stayed in his vacated digs. (and went - ahem- clubbing). Many of the students do social care type degrees which have longer years .

Lincoln may not be a clubbing mecca but it's a well known 'pub run' destination for hen and stag nights and has loads of busy pubs.

"As transmissible as chicken pox" - so is there a level of herd immunity in addition to the vaccines, in some communities? Just some areas? And those are dramatically dropping. Hence majority of the drop. And other areas had more of the Kent variant at Xmas so are relatively immune at - the moment.

The NE didn't really get the full force of the second wave at Xmas. It's noticeable that many primary age children have caught the delta in the NE whereas the numbers in the SE for that age range for delta so far are much lower, in comparison to the pre Christmas wave in the SE, where rates were higher.

I've not looked into data in huge detail though. Obviously the U.K./ nhs is an outlier in relying on natural herd immunity for chicken pox in the world. (The difference is that Covid changes and triggers reinfections.)

(I'm looking at the density colours on the gov page when comparing the SE and the NE)

Also, this is probably a v stupid consideration but no such thing as a stupid question!

Phe were obviously panicking locally a few weeks ago in the NE and started to get the message out about different symptoms. Our nursery listed and insisted that bad cold symptoms get tests and sent lots of children home on one day, with one positive from that crop.

The other issue we had was the v high pollen; many were suffering with hay fever- could cv symptoms have been missed during that time so it got hold? (Although I seem to remember pollen being protective?)

Could a combo of the asymptomatic testing, more awareness of different symptoms, many jabbed and some naturally immune mean that the virus just ran out of people?

Obviously this situation won't be stable, though jabs will help.

[quote MRex]@RafaIsTheKingOfClay - what about all the other countries with similar spikes from Delta though? We've had a few named in this thread, I just mentioned India because it was an obvious one (and according to work colleagues not very locked down at all, but they were in affected cities so mostly people did their own isolating). South Africa is another interesting one; while they under-test significantly the hospital strain versus relative calm tells a story and they had both Beta and Delta come under control without months of lockdown. Beta is similar to Delta in having a very high viral load, so could be a similar cause.[/quote]
static.mygov.in/rest/s3fs-public/mygov_162519968151307401.pdf

I'm not sure that most people on here would consider these restrictions as not very locked down. And I've heard differently from you about how locked down things were and that restrictions were well adhered to. And as you say, in badly affected areas there was a lot of behaviour change over and above any restrictions imposed. There do still appear to be testing and quarantine restrictions for people travelling from area to area too.

South Africa's cases started to fall about 10 days after new restrictions were put in place at the end of June to control the spread of delta. They then amended their level 4 regulations to close schools early for the holidays from 30th June. They are starting to reduce restrictions in places now so it remains to be seen what affect that will have on cases.

I'm not convinced there is a country where delta cases have fallen without some sort of intervention.

I'm not convinced there is a country where delta cases have fallen without some sort of intervention

So you're saying the UK's cases are not falling?

Interesting about Lincoln, I was there last Saturday and may or may not have had too much to drink and ended up in a busy bar with dancing. The town centre was really busy but I'd imagine no more so than any other on a Saturday night. No major mass events I was aware of!

I'm not convinced there is a country where delta cases have fallen without some sort of intervention

I wouldn’t say I’m 100% convinced either but it will happen at some point as we move into a stage where covid is bedded in with operational life. Like with other diseases there will be outbreaks and periods of very few cases, it won’t apply to India just yet but vaccines will definitely impact the speed we start seeing that. I’d say it’s practically impossible to call either way at the moment.

In the sector I’m in I’m seeing work in office Tues / Wed / Thurs and wfh other two which seems a good mix, not sure what other sectors are doing

Work seems ok on that basis but I can’t do zoom for socialising anymore. Like eating cardboard for meals compared to real thing. I hate to take rl socialising away from any group young or old.

Argh wrong thread whoops

Today's spec date breakdown in England.

Largely flat; day-1 (yesterday's first reported figures) a touch lower (2%) as compared with a week ago,

Day-2 (Thursday 29th, second day of reporting) also a little lower (4.9%)

Again almost 90% of cases reported today relate to spec dates of 29th and 30th July; rising to 97.1% with 28th July, graphic on next post

second graphic

Thanks, boys3. July 28th (Wednesday) is indeed might be the weekly peak but it is encouraging to see that it is still lower than July 21st.

Lincoln had another day of high reported cases.

Good, thanks for the charts @boys3.

Relaxation until early September (nail-biting can begin again 2 weeks after Scottish schools opening).

@wintertravel1980 ; yes, on a two day lag Lincoln now highest rate in England. although for context Lincoln's 633 per 100,000 is not hugely over the median rate (just past 500) in England seen the week before last, the age profile is hopefully heavily skewed to the younger age groups; although with the 5 day age reporting lag a few more days to wait for that.

Wednesday does look like being the peak day in England for this past week; but likely perhaps 300 cases over the Monday figure.