Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

I like this explainer on the ONS data and how it aligns with the dashboard data: mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1421117152019554307

So, in noddy language for me, the ONS confirms what has already happened - lots of people caught covid recently and are still testing positive, as opposed to new cases (which is what the dashboard reports)

and to add a bit more context

England daily cases and 7 day average; black columns signify a Monday

and the percentage change in the 7 day average for cases, admissions, number in hospital, and deaths within 28 days - again just relates to England.

starting sentences with an and; TWICE; have duly gone to the naughty step

Re admissions - charts from Oliver Johnson on twitter (@Bristoliver) showing a definite slow down in admissions - yesterday's and todays for comparison

@MRex

Sorry, cross-"pasted".

India dropped sharply too, and without vaccination. My hypothesis of what this shows is that Delta soars quickly at large events due to viral load and K factor of a few superspreaders, but faster rougher symptoms from the higher viral load means more rapid isolation, so it cases drop off faster too. Fewer asymptomatic can be helpful.

I think the huge lockdown may have helped India’s cases fall though. They are still in the process of unlocking now. I’m not sure it’s comparable to the uk where there were very few restrictions which were released at about the time cases appeared to peak.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay did India have a country wide lockdown? I may be out of date but I understood that it varied widely across the country. Most of the articles I read were pondering why India’s cases declined because it wasn’t clear that any one particular measure had enough impact for the kind of decline they saw.

Actually it is necessary to keep repeating on these threads that the NHS is actually unable to stop covid transmission in hospital. You have an aerosol borne infection, tests that dont necessarily detect infection immediately and vulnerable people. You should look at this as a success in preventing more people from acquiring covid.

New hospitals are likely to be built with more single bed wards and/or better ventilation systems but you have to work with what you have.

As for figures on people in hospital mainly for covid - where would you put the pregnant woman losing her baby in those figures? She's not mainly being treated for covid but it is why she is there. The government want us all to believe covid is over, I'd want to see what the people being mainly treated for something else are in for. The oft quoted broken leg rarely involves a hospital bed unless there are other problems.

[quote Cornettoninja]@RafaIsTheKingOfClay did India have a country wide lockdown? I may be out of date but I understood that it varied widely across the country. Most of the articles I read were pondering why India’s cases declined because it wasn’t clear that any one particular measure had enough impact for the kind of decline they saw.[/quote]
It was done at state level with restrictions on travelling between states. Which does allow less affected states to put in slightly weaker restrictions ithout worrying that they were going to get lots of additional delta cases in from other states.

It could well be a combination of factors that led to the decrease in cases. It probably badly is. But it was a very different situation to the one the U.K. is in now so I’m not sure looking at the two waves tells us much about the virus.

Thanks @RafaIsTheKingOfClay. It’s an interesting one that I’m sure more will emerge from in time. It feels to me like we’re missing something important with delta that we just can’t quite put out finger on. I think I agree with speculation that a shorter incubation/contagious period might be at play.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay - what about all the other countries with similar spikes from Delta though? We've had a few named in this thread, I just mentioned India because it was an obvious one (and according to work colleagues not very locked down at all, but they were in affected cities so mostly people did their own isolating). South Africa is another interesting one; while they under-test significantly the hospital strain versus relative calm tells a story and they had both Beta and Delta come under control without months of lockdown. Beta is similar to Delta in having a very high viral load, so could be a similar cause.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/30/covid-infections-rising-england-despite-fall-daily-reported-cases

Too early to say if Covid infections are falling in England, experts warn

egrof Rowland Kao of the University of Edinburgh, who also contributes to Spi-M, cautioned it could take time for the picture to become clear, adding the impact of relaxing Covid restrictions had yet to become fully apparent.

“Even if there is a long-term trend downwards, we would expect bumps in the road – and if you look at the overall pattern there have been, in the past, multiple consecutive days of an apparent trend, but then it disappears again,” he said. “Having said that, we are at the stage where the impact of the release of restrictions on the 19th [July] might start to show up more … so we should be watching those trends closely.”

here's a bump. Just scanning down the 7 day rates for councils in England; a big majority have a lower 7 day rate to 28th July as compared with their 7 day rate to 27th July. Whilst test results are clearly coming through pretty rapidly a 2 day lag will see a few more to be added, so if despite this the case rate is already higher than the previous day then something to look at a bit more closely. Almost all that have an increase are not showing in the main anything too excessive - aside from that one more extreme outlier .

Which LA is that @boys3?

the bump is that well known global clubbing capital- Lincoln - who knew?

The graph tracks Lincoln's daily cases since 28th June, its seven day rate per 100,000 and the median rate per 100,000 in England.

Nothing much to get too excited about. The 15th July England peak in cases largely went by unnoticed in Lincoln. The most recent England 7 day rate peak wasJuly 19th; the rate in Lincoln was already on a downward trajectory.

However in the past few days it has gone in the opposite direction to the England median.

99 cases on 26th July

114 cases on 27th July

147 cases on 28th July

7 day rate for Lincoln to 28th is just over 550 per 100,000, as compared with 450 24hrs earlier.

Lincoln is not particularly big. population around 100,000; designated a city only due to the stunning cathedral at the top of the hill. Two universities, although both of them should be done and dusted several weeks ago. So quite what has been going on will be interesting to see.

Thanks. Looks like it's just Lincoln showing up a bit late to the party then.

Fascinating, boys3. There must've been something big happening in Lincoln last Saturday.

Looks like Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole and Bristol also had eventful weekends. Their numbers for July 28 by date of specimen (incomplete data set) already exceed July 21.

It is probably expected that regions less impacted by Delta wave so far (e.g. South West, South East, East Midlands) may be seeing more outbreaks/local flares.

@wintertravel1980

Looks like Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole and Bristol also had eventful weekends. Their numbers for July 28 by date of specimen (incomplete data set) already exceed July 21.

It is probably expected that regions less impacted by Delta wave so far (e.g. South West, South East, East Midlands) may be seeing more outbreaks/local flares.

I would say Bristol already been badly hit by delta varient June and July I think we were expecting peak as it was highest ever at nearly 900 per 100 now down to 582. Bristol school only broke up 21st. We have 2 University i assume many went home but also many students who live locally. Wider vaccination places and grab a jab. However total jabs % low and some ares uptake worse than others. Schools were badly hit so many parents i know welcome vaccinating teens. Nearby South glos also been really high Bath and North East Somerset was also rising Last I read 99 hospital patients between both hospitals.

Just trying to catch up, but has anyone posted this yet - CDC explanation for going back on unmasking - delta seems easily transmitted by vaccinated people, because of much greater viral load:

cnn.it/3BXtfe3?fbclid=IwAR0H9Y9l96HvyNgq81jVF_HHVUeIzPX68qvAq6iBPSOTGbryCmC8kVQSAlg

New SAGE document says that the creation of vaccine resistant Variants is "almost certain".

twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1421216636607082499

And here's the document:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007566/S1335_Long_term_evolution_of_SARS-CoV-2.pdf

Pretty heavy reading, that's for sure.

It's interesting, when I read that paper (and particularly that section) I see that the impact is considered "medium" (so not high) and there seem to be quite a number of mitigations that can be put in place, principally, boosters for vulnerable groups (which I kind of thought was a given?).

I'm not sure that's all that dramatic really?

I'm not sure why they classified the impact as only "medium" when the government have pinned everything on the vaccines.

My main concern is that they're considering a Variant with a ~35% IFR a "realistic possibility".