Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We could call it equivocal maybe?

@herecomesthsun - It's shown the NE is still the area with most cases, that age 18-24 is highest cases and 11-17 next highest, that Scotland has started to fall, that England stabilised (it will then fall in line with the delay), that NI rose... No gremlins of unexpected info from the case pattern a few weeks ago that I can see. How do you think it differs?

Well, there have been a lot of fanfares about a huge fall in cases starting I think 18th July.

This data goes up to 24 July.

There has also been discussion that the falls might not reflect a true fall but might be to some degree artefact.

Therefore it's interesting that the ONS data shows rises everywhere except Scotland. I wasn't really expecting that.

So I'd say this is not exactly supporting the falls shown elsewhere as it is actually showing rises in cases. Especially in children & young people.

But "equivocal" is reasonable as you could I guess say that it will take longer for falls to percolate through, so maybe that's what we'll see in the next week or 2. Who knows?

The fall in Scottish cases has come through though, I can't remember when ONS started to show that.

@MRex

Sorry, cross-"pasted".

India dropped sharply too, and without vaccination. My hypothesis of what this shows is that Delta soars quickly at large events due to viral load and K factor of a few superspreaders, but faster rougher symptoms from the higher viral load means more rapid isolation, so it cases drop off faster too. Fewer asymptomatic can be helpful.

Malta, Cyprus and Portugal are also dropping quickly too.

delighted to hear that

I absolutely expected ONS numbers for England to go up.

ONS shows prevalence not new cases. Prevalence during the week ending July 24 could only go one way (upwards) because the reported number includes people infected at the peak.

I can also make another prediction - next week ONS will only show a moderate drop (because the sample will still pick up people with virus debris infected at the peak).

We will see this picture even if cases are indeed falling rapidly.

I know what prevalence means (research degree).

However, I haven't worked out how long after getting infected or testing positive people still are counted as cases by ONS.

If there is genuine doubt that people are coming forward to be tested (as others have suggested) and this is increasingly an issue, then ONS to some extent is a bit more impartial in its testing (albeit of rather conscientious types, so on that score an underestimate)

Scotland's highest cases were 30th June; 4 weeks is the usual ONS lag for the reasons @wintertravel1980 has explained, so it came down a few days faster than expected at 3.5 weeks.

England cases were at their peak 15th July, so only 9 days up to 24th, they shouldn't be expected to come down until end of next week on ONS, reported in mid-August.

I agree ONS will pick up the issue if people are not coming forward for testing but I believe:

• We will only see it next week; and
• The red flag will be ONS numbers plateauing or going up.

A moderate drop starting from next week would be consistent with the current trend of reported cases.

Is high prevalence same as positivity rate?

The fact so many were pinged backs up infections are high although I guess that only takes account confirmed cases via testing

www.google.com/amp/s/www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/more-600000-people-were-told-21116536.amp

How do ons measure? On symptoms bit like the zoe app?

@herecomesthsun - it's good to be cautious, and you're right that ONS is impartial, it's only that the delay needs to be taken into account. It has value, you just need to drop back a few weeks to compare with the cases then and can't use it for an immediate picture. There's a shorter delay and some early understatement when cases are increasing, but that also exists and again it needs to be taken into account.

I agree ONS will pick up the issue if people are not coming forward for testing but I believe

Would it? You still have to isolate if you are found positive by the ONS testing, so why if you're not compliant any more would you carry on in the ONS survey?

sirfredfredgeorge - I should have probably said “will eventually pick up the issue” if people are not coming forward for testing.

Non compliant people will not test but they will inevitably infect others and ONS should pick up an increase in early (pre-symptomatic) infections. Of course, ONS delays make this information less relevant.

Do ONS publish drop-outs, if there is a huge reduction in testing-compliance, we'd expect that to be reflected as a reduction in participation in the ONS too, even if ONS (with the payments and likely more-compliant people) are less likely, it would have to reflect a bit?

It’s useful to know re ONS lag.

Hopefully we’ll see same lag as Scotland here.

Agreed - and the ONS w/e 24th includes the highest 7 day peak reflected in government figures as well, those being 18th/19th/20th. I don't think anything "fishy" is going on at all Tim Spector.

29622 today - down from 36389 last Friday

Hospital admissions in England look to be down for the 4th day in a row - encouraging but probably too early to say if its a trend

@wintertravel1980

I have just checked the start of year reports and it took ONS more than a month to acknowledge the clear fall in cases. The first report where the downward trend became very clear was published on February 6 (covering the trend until Jan 30).

ONS does have a significant lag.

I was thinking the same, I distinctly remember that it was several weeks before the ONS estimates even nearly matched the actual data after the Jan peak.

Spec date graphic for England - same format as that posted yesterday

Yesterday (Day-1) reported 5757 cases, almost identical to that reported last Friday for last last Thursday 5760.

For Day-2 (eg Wednesday spec dates) today's reporting takes the total to 23800, around 9% lower that the numbers reported last Friday for last Wednesday (26,249)

This is the start of the "Freedom day" exit wave bounce, so it's looking not too bad, though tomorrow night is the bigger test.

Hospital admissions 728 in England compared with 783 a week ago. Total in hospital 5,111 so it's fairly steady but slightly up still, mechanical ventilation beds up at 785 (wishing them all well, poor souls). Hopefully we'll get drops in the number in hospital soon (from recovery!).

This then shows the split (again just England) of today's additions across the past 6 days. Just under 90% of cases added had a spec date of Wednesday or Thursday.

I am waiting for boys3 breakdown of cases by date of specimen.:)

In the mean time, I had a quick look at regional breakdowns and it looks like:

• Regions hit hard by Delta earlier (NW, NE) keep declining;
• SE, SW and East Midlands may be plateauing over past 3 days (the data is incomplete but it is possible to predict the trend). The numbers for Tue and Wed (based on the date of specimen) are likely to include transmissions that occurred during the previous weekend;
• Going forward, it is possible that we will keep seeing weekly peaks (by date of specimen) on Tuesdays and Wednesdays with, hopefully, adjustments down on Thursdays and Fridays. It is very helpful that we are now moving into the 7 day cycles (vs 4 days with football matches).

Thank you, boys3!