Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

dicking about trying to work out how many of those people had been in hospital at least 10 days before they got their positive covid test isn’t going to help much

It's pretty essential information to know if your infection control methods within the hospital are working.

In other words lock us all up forever because the nhs can’t get their together?

@sirfredfredgeorge

dicking about trying to work out how many of those people had been in hospital at least 10 days before they got their positive covid test isn’t going to help much

It's pretty essential information to know if your infection control methods within the hospital are working.

Yup.

But how are you going to know from a meaningless figure? The best possible way to do that is looking at individual cases, clusters and wards not an overarching figure. That’s what our infection control team are for.

Even if we did know the measures aren’t working what are we going to do about it? Opening some windows and whacking the heating up so it doesn’t get too cold is about all we’ve got. Banning visitors again be the next step. Completely rebuilding hospitals so there are no wards is not really feasible in the short term.

If you want to stop it spreading in the non hot areas of hospitals you need to stop it getting in in the first place.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/07/Primary-Diagnosis-Supplement-20210729.xlsx

Shows those in hospital with covid And breaks out those in hospital being treated primarily for covid. Latest data shows 5021 (27 July) in total, 3,855 being treated primarily for covid. So 77%.

Obviously there is a lot going on there - it could be that they were admitted for something serious that has been aggravated by covid, for example, so covid isn't the primary reason they are there but is the base reason.

But some idea.

@PatriciaHolm

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/07/Primary-Diagnosis-Supplement-20210729.xlsx

Shows those in hospital with covid And breaks out those in hospital being treated primarily for covid. Latest data shows 5021 (27 July) in total, 3,855 being treated primarily for covid. So 77%.

Obviously there is a lot going on there - it could be that they were admitted for something serious that has been aggravated by covid, for example, so covid isn't the primary reason they are there but is the base reason.

But some idea.

This is so helpful thanks. But where does it say 3885 being treated primarily for covid?

I’m not suggesting that hospitals shouldn’t do everything they can to control spread, just that the number you are asking for doesn’t help that.

The fact is that learning to live with Covid means learning to accept that covid will be spreading in hospitals and accepting that if you go into a hospital then then there’s a chance you will get covid in the same way as whenever you spend extended periods of time in any indoor situation with other people.

Wakes publish weekly figures for covid acquired in hospital and the numbers are currently very small, especially compared to the last wave. They also publish cases detected in hospital either on or during admission daily and these are a much smaller proportion of total cases than in the previous wave.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

I’m not suggesting that hospitals shouldn’t do everything they can to control spread, just that the number you are asking for doesn’t help that.

The fact is that learning to live with Covid means learning to accept that covid will be spreading in hospitals and accepting that if you go into a hospital then then there’s a chance you will get covid in the same way as whenever you spend extended periods of time in any indoor situation with other people.

Or we could learn to live with covid by investing in things like good ventilation systems. I don't know why learning to live with covid has become synonymous with pretending it doesn't exist.

Wales stupid autocorrect

Or we could learn to live with covid by investing in things like good ventilation systems. I don't know why learning to live with covid has become synonymous with pretending it doesn't exist.

Well quite, but but I don’t see any funding coming soon or even being suggested at the moment. It’s the same issue we have with schools.

I suspect ‘learning to live with covid’ is being used very differently by different groups of people. I suspect that when public health officials use it they are refusing to something akin to a ‘new normal’ rather than when you see it on social media when it seems to mean go back to before covid exists.

That last sentence was a bit tongue in cheek and I shouldn’t have risen to the NHS bashing upthread. But I stand by the point that bad data won’t help. That figure would be bad data. It either won’t include a lot of people who did catch it in hospital or will include a lot of people that didn’t. We only do forwards contact tracing in this country, not backwards. There is no set up mechanism to work out where anyone caught covid because we have too much covid to make it viable. There for the number is meaningless.

@PatriciaHolm

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/07/Primary-Diagnosis-Supplement-20210729.xlsx

Shows those in hospital with covid And breaks out those in hospital being treated primarily for covid. Latest data shows 5021 (27 July) in total, 3,855 being treated primarily for covid. So 77%.

Obviously there is a lot going on there - it could be that they were admitted for something serious that has been aggravated by covid, for example, so covid isn't the primary reason they are there but is the base reason.

But some idea.

Thanks this is really helpful.

@Bizawit - at the end of the table on the Primarily COVID tab

188 UK 202,760 321,097 -37% 2,970 499 387 +29%
193 Netherlands 31,926 61,171 -48% 1,859 26 16 +63%

Sorry for the bad copy/pasting but on Worldometers, seven day case rates/trends, and death rates/trends following a similar pattern in Netherlands. Which is interesting in that we are also following a similar pattern of opening up, and vaccination status.

Sorry, that's truly awful pasting :-/. But hopefully you get the gist. Minus 37% UK cases rate, Minus 48% Netherlands cases rate, over seven days. Death rates still climbing, but due to same lag for deaths as UK.

Just wanted to try to illustrate that other countries also experiencing similar trends, and not necessarily a UK government conspiracy as suggested on some threads.

188
UK
202,760
321,097
-37%
2,970
499
387
+29%

193
Netherlands
31,926
61,171
-48%
1,859
26
16
+63%

I've separated them and I'm none the wiser. What are these numbers?

Sorry, cross-"pasted".

India dropped sharply too, and without vaccination. My hypothesis of what this shows is that Delta soars quickly at large events due to viral load and K factor of a few superspreaders, but faster rougher symptoms from the higher viral load means more rapid isolation, so it cases drop off faster too. Fewer asymptomatic can be helpful.

I don’t think it’s a U.K. government conspiracy re the numbers that is suggested is it but an English one no one seemed to doubt the Scottish cases falling despite no new lockdown it was only when England followed the exact same trend that people questioned it?

ons survey out

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/30july2021

In England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to increase in the week ending 24 July 2021, though there are possible signs that the rate of increase may have slowed; we estimate that 856,200 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 798,600 to 915,000), equating to around 1 in 65 people.

in the Celtic nations

In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive continued to increase in the week ending 24 July 2021; we estimate that 18,800 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 12,700 to 26,000), equating to around 1 in 160 people.

In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive continued to increase in the week ending 24 July 2021; we estimate that 27,200 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 18,200 to 38,200), equating to around 1 in 65 people.

In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive has decreased in the most recent week ending 24 July 2021; we estimate that 49,500 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 38,300 to 62,300) equating to around 1 in 110 people.

looking at kids

age 2 - year 6 2,2% +ve

year 7 - year 11 3.3% & rising

year 12- age 24 3.6% & plateaued

Very interesting, especially as these are arguably underestimates.

Of course, up to July 24 & more unreliable in the 2 or 3 days at the end of the testing period.

ONS always lags a bit as we're looking backward on the test dates and also PCR positivity for a time after infection. Usual caution about the type of people willing to do ONS, but overall that's really positive that it's showing the same trend.

@MRex

ONS always lags a bit as we're looking backward on the test dates and also PCR positivity for a time after infection. Usual caution about the type of people willing to do ONS, but overall that's really positive that it's showing the same trend.

It is generally not showing the same trend?

I have just checked the start of year reports and it took ONS more than a month to acknowledge the clear fall in cases. The first report where the downward trend became very clear was published on February 6 (covering the trend until Jan 30).

ONS does have a significant lag.

ONS is showing slowdown during the week running to July 24.

Reported cases peaked on July 15 (4 days post Euro finals). People infected at the peak will be testing positive in the latest ONS sample (July 17 - July 24). I would say the trends are consistent.