Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Not strictly data but interesting blog from an ICU consultant in particular about pregnant women. From para 11.
www.nomoresurgeons.com/post/past-the-peak?postId=30472868-26ad-4dbb-9b6c-4e90a4ca85a7

Over the past month we have seen a surprising number of pregnant patients become unwell due to COVID-19 and require admission to hospital. Pregnancy causes complicated changes to your immune system and we know that pregnancy increases the likelihood of developing serious complications following many viral infections, including COVID-19. Unfortunately, the vaccine uptake amongst pregnant women is not what it should be and so we are seeing more and more pregnant patients.

Currently, 95% of all pregnant women who are admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are unvaccinated. Pregnant women with severe COVID pneumonitis are at greatly increased risk of stillbirth or premature delivery

Many of today's headlines are about an announcement coming today on easing restrictions on international travel.

The office for statistics regulation have written a letter to the JBC for more transparency in the data they provide.
osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/correspondence/mary-gregory-to-johanna-hutchinson-statistics-informing-quarantine-requirements-for-arrivals-to-england/

"We have written to the Joint Biosecurity Centre about data to support decisions on the international travel traffic light system. It is our expectation that statistics and data which support decisions should be made available in an accessible form."

DH received his result less than 24 hours later, 2pm to 9am - it is negative, so he just has a summer cold/virus. Good news.

In other very sad news, DD found out an aquaintance from her university year, age 24, has died of Covid. They are all very shocked and sad. He was a large lad, but nevertheless.....

Sorry not data, but illustrative of deaths still coming through, and in young men. He was very ill in ICU for a few weeks I believe.

The links at the front are very helpful I would have a look

How sad @BigWoollyJumpers.

Vaccines are being dumped apparently, by the UK and US - and African countries being given them can't use them fast enough.

www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1893

Lurker here with a question. Is there a correlation between university areas and low take up of vaccine? Cambridge and Oxford stand out especially with the areas around the cities having a higher take up. Is it because the population figures include people studying in the city but who largely live elsewhere in the country. That is where they are registered with the GP and had their vaccine?

Or just a larger younger population, and the correlation is with other young people

That's a disgrace about vaccines being discarded, and the source is reputable so presumably it's true. It sounds as if there are legal blockages though, and I'm wondering if, among the chaos, removing these has been neglected

Not sure about African countries not being able to use them fast enough though - after all the article said "The World Health Organization reports that 23 African countries have used fewer than half of the doses they have received so far"

27734. The trend continues. Lovely.

I was really nervous for today's figures for some reason, very pleased as Wednesday tends to be the bumper day, no?

5182 in hospital in England.

Looks like it will be a sub 30% week, aka lower than last week. With three days to go until 1st Aug, currently up 16% from 24th July. I would estimate under 5500 by then which will be a 23% increase.

Prior weeks:
To 10th July: +45%
To 17th July: +42%
To 24th July: +30%

Very much early days, but for first time in this wave numbers being admitted daily have dropped for 2 days running. Hopefully this is the first real sign that admission numbers are following cases and will be in the green by the start of next week.

The numbers in hospital and numbers on ventilation will then possibly start to follow the trend within a few days and as deaths lag even further, we may see reductions by the end of next week.

@ILookAtTheFloor

I was really nervous for today's figures for some reason, very pleased as Wednesday tends to be the bumper day, no?

Yep, recently at least. It will be interesting to see if the same % drop in cases can continue. Would be insane really. Could be looking at sub 10,000 per day within weeks.

@ZoBo123

Lurker here with a question. Is there a correlation between university areas and low take up of vaccine? Cambridge and Oxford stand out especially with the areas around the cities having a higher take up. Is it because the population figures include people studying in the city but who largely live elsewhere in the country. That is where they are registered with the GP and had their vaccine?

It's likely to be a data artifact. Discussed in detail on 'More or Less' a few weeks ago - link at the bottom of the article at www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-57700556

@Itsprobablynotcominghome

27734. The trend continues. Lovely.

Haven’t they gone up not down?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58004934

Don’t think we’re dumping vaccines? Sounds like we’re sending loads out now.

Haven’t they gone up not down?

Was 44k last Wednesday

@Whatever9999

Very much early days, but for first time in this wave numbers being admitted daily have dropped for 2 days running. Hopefully this is the first real sign that admission numbers are following cases and will be in the green by the start of next week.

The numbers in hospital and numbers on ventilation will then possibly start to follow the trend within a few days and as deaths lag even further, we may see reductions by the end of next week.

Just reading a thread on twitter saying similar- the difference between the number of daily admissions and the number of people in hospital each day is narrowing. If this trend continues (as it should for a while if following cases) then hospital numbers should start dropping soon.

It's up from yesterday but down week on week, which is more important (doesn't Wednesday tend to have big numbers?).

I'm hearing that this herd immunity at last. I'm so pleased, but could somebody more knowledgable explain how it has happened suddenly like that? I thought there would be a slow down in cases a lot earlier on because so many were vaccinated, but there seemed to be quite a steep climb up and then a sudden turning point and fairly fast drop. Is it just a case of reaching a certain (unknown beforehand) % that tips it the other way? And if we maintain this level of vaccination/immmunity it will keep going down until cases are negligible? I certainly hope so ... it did seem as if a couple of weeks ago that looked impossible.

Or are there just do many other variables going on to be sure what's happening?

Would be almost impossible to go down day on day. Not every day is equal. You have to look at the trend compared to 7 days ago.

@Puzzledandpissedoff

That's a disgrace about vaccines being discarded, and the source is reputable so presumably it's true. It sounds as if there are legal blockages though, and I'm wondering if, among the chaos, removing these has been neglected

Not sure about African countries not being able to use them fast enough though - after all the article said "The World Health Organization reports that 23 African countries have used fewer than half of the doses they have received so far"

The issue is that WHO and GAVI haven't skilled up specific countries to be ready to take a bulk load of basically actors leftover vaccines; that should have been an obvious step. So countries are given just tens of thousands, but aren't prepped to use them. Next step will be increasing the general logistics support from UK, USA, EU and other western countries because the planning just isn't there. I really hope at some point somebody says thank you instead of the consistent moaning about unfairness without even using vaccines, because that's getting old fast.

@Tupla

It's up from yesterday but down week on week, which is more important (doesn't Wednesday tend to have big numbers?).

I'm hearing that this herd immunity at last. I'm so pleased, but could somebody more knowledgable explain how it has happened suddenly like that? I thought there would be a slow down in cases a lot earlier on because so many were vaccinated, but there seemed to be quite a steep climb up and then a sudden turning point and fairly fast drop. Is it just a case of reaching a certain (unknown beforehand) % that tips it the other way? And if we maintain this level of vaccination/immmunity it will keep going down until cases are negligible? I certainly hope so ... it did seem as if a couple of weeks ago that looked impossible.

Or are there just do many other variables going on to be sure what's happening?

My guess is that the football has had a big impact. Before the tournament we had already started to see a slowdown in increase of cases. My guess is that instead of leveling off we saw some super spreader events that increased cases instead. So likely those increased cases during the football would have happened anyway but over a longer drawn out period (flattening of the curve).as it were they all occurred quickly and therefore the virus is just running out of hosts quicker than it would have done without the football.

May be crap but it's just an opinion of mine

The rise was to be expected.

Was nice to have a few days where we could pretend everything was ok, but I suspect it's back to reality now.

Thank you, MRex; I knew you'd be able to flesh out the thing about donated vaccines going unused!!

Can't say I'm surprised about training/prep not being in place, though TBF our own health agencies have had their hands full recently
Hopefully it can be addressed in future, but I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for thanks