Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

999 replies

boys3 · 23/07/2021 21:28

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

OP posts:
Thread gallery
147
MarshaBradyo · 28/07/2021 19:21

Re pp re ‘back to reality’ isn’t it better to look at last Wednesday figure?

And there is a drop

Quartz2208 · 28/07/2021 19:26

@NannyAndJohn

The rise was to be expected.

Was nice to have a few days where we could pretend everything was ok, but I suspect it's back to reality now.

There is nothing to say either way yet. Just like you have to wait and see with the drop you have to wait and see with this.

Either way it is too early to tell. You cant pick and choose when something suits you. The reality is at the moment there is no clear indication where this is going to go.

QueenStromba · 28/07/2021 19:29

@Tupla

It's up from yesterday but down week on week, which is more important (doesn't Wednesday tend to have big numbers?).

I'm hearing that this herd immunity at last. I'm so pleased, but could somebody more knowledgable explain how it has happened suddenly like that? I thought there would be a slow down in cases a lot earlier on because so many were vaccinated, but there seemed to be quite a steep climb up and then a sudden turning point and fairly fast drop. Is it just a case of reaching a certain (unknown beforehand) % that tips it the other way? And if we maintain this level of vaccination/immmunity it will keep going down until cases are negligible? I certainly hope so ... it did seem as if a couple of weeks ago that looked impossible.

Or are there just do many other variables going on to be sure what's happening?

Whatever's behind this has affected all regions of England simultaneously. It can't be herd immunity as you'd expect that to happen in different places at different times depending on vaccine take up and previous infections. My guess would be that lots of people saw the crowds due to the Euros and rising local cases so decided to lay low for a bit. That or they've lost a load of cases down the back of the sofa again.
Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY
Tuba437 · 28/07/2021 19:37

@NannyAndJohn

The rise was to be expected.

Was nice to have a few days where we could pretend everything was ok, but I suspect it's back to reality now.

I'm pretty sure we have been told all along to go by the same day a week before when comparing cases. Not one day after the other. Sure someone with the grand maths degree you have would have been aware of this?

I give it 1 more day until you mention exponential growth.

MarshaBradyo · 28/07/2021 19:39

Tuba I concur with your post. Odd isn’t it how pp doesn’t know basics as if they’re so very keen to say their favourite line.. ‘I told you so’

Just waiting for it daily

MRex · 28/07/2021 19:49

@NannyAndJohn

The rise was to be expected.

Was nice to have a few days where we could pretend everything was ok, but I suspect it's back to reality now.

I'm usually right but on the optimistic side, you're usually wrong and on the pessimistic side. How about chilling out and I'll let you know when you need to get concerned again hey? Because you will have many chances to fret come early winter, and/or when Beta comes in earnest to the UK, and/or another variant. Until then save your blood pressure and enjoy the next month of summer.

We had a higher peak from the football, a steeper drop everywhere because we vaccinate age groups all at once, somehow K factor dissipated quickly. This is the good time, there will be bumps for a few years globally, so let's celebrate while we can to build depleted family and friend relationships as well as endorphins. Get ready to take the next ruffles with aplomb, rather than exhausting energy while the threat is low.

MarshaBradyo · 28/07/2021 20:00

Get ready to take the next ruffles with aplomb, rather than exhausting energy while the threat is low.

I get the impression pp prefers to be right and is happy when they rise.

Hard for the rest of us who do appreciate this break and don’t need such quick see back to reality posts.

PatriciaHolm · 28/07/2021 20:06

Stolen from Twitter - Google movement tracking data for the last few weeks. Clearly showing that "freedom day" has so far seemed to have very little impact on mobility in the UK - "workplaces" include schools so a small drop there is to be expected, but retail and recreation hasn't moved in measurable terms. It would seem that much of the increase in activity was already baked in, and even then it was low.

Of course, now summer holidays are in full swing this might start to change, but it does suggest a fair amount of hesitancy overall to get "back to normal".

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY
PatriciaHolm · 28/07/2021 20:07

(Should note though that the graph is just weekday. Will try to find weekend data to see if that shows nightclub spikes!)

ncnoclue · 28/07/2021 20:08

Well I'm hoping and praying for my winter wedding so I am 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻that this drop is good news!

GCrebel · 28/07/2021 20:27

Not data, just anecdotes, but from conversations with multiple people I'm getting a sense that many folk started being slightly more sociable from about mid June onwards. Whether it was football related, seeing family or friends, going to a long postponed uni graduation or wedding, or finally just going out once the weather improved, people began to mix. Remember we had really quite poor weather until late into the year and so even once some restrictions were relaxed in England, people didn't necessarily rush out straight away.

As the weather improved, most people I speak to started to do stuff once again. So my pet theory fwiw, is that the peak wasn't just caused by a few big events like football, but by more people doing more things and just mixing. So I'm hoping, that this is the other side of the mountain and that future peaks will become smaller and smaller as the virus finds it harder to colonise people and make them unwell.

lonelyplanet · 28/07/2021 20:29

Interesting twitter thread with ideas on the drop in cases.
mobile.twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1420415146313256965

olivethegreat · 28/07/2021 21:07

Really interesting @lonelyplanet . I know I've been more cautious in the past fortnight. I wonder if it's possible that this could become pandemic in which it is possible for the population to self moderate a bit - especially as those most at risk would perhaps be watching the data more carefully.

Bordois · 28/07/2021 21:09

Why is the fact that hospital admissions haven't dropped yet still being used as a reason for the drop in cases not "being real". We were told constantly that they lagged behind by a couple of weeks whilst cases were rising, so surely the same would apply when cases dropped too?

Whatever9999 · 28/07/2021 21:14

@Bordois

Why is the fact that hospital admissions haven't dropped yet still being used as a reason for the drop in cases not "being real". We were told constantly that they lagged behind by a couple of weeks whilst cases were rising, so surely the same would apply when cases dropped too?
But the rise is starting to slow and maybe even reverse. Only 2 days dropping so far, but a week ago we were saying the same.thing about cases.
Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY
lurker101 · 28/07/2021 21:25

@Bordois

Why is the fact that hospital admissions haven't dropped yet still being used as a reason for the drop in cases not "being real". We were told constantly that they lagged behind by a couple of weeks whilst cases were rising, so surely the same would apply when cases dropped too?
I think it’s because we’re on a bit of a knife edge, and Govt/media/scientists don’t want to encourage people to abandon any caution they’re using, by “celebrating” too early
MarshaBradyo · 28/07/2021 21:30

@Bordois

Why is the fact that hospital admissions haven't dropped yet still being used as a reason for the drop in cases not "being real". We were told constantly that they lagged behind by a couple of weeks whilst cases were rising, so surely the same would apply when cases dropped too?
Some are keen to see rises unfortunately

But yes I agree and I hope the early indication holds

wintertravel1980 · 28/07/2021 21:31

But the rise is starting to slow and maybe even reverse.

To be fair, UK wide numbers for hospital admissions are not particularly useful because (i) Wales stats are meaningless - they include all admissions with Covid (fever/cough) symptoms and (ii) we know Scotland's cases have already been falling for a while

We really need to look at England's numbers to validate the falling trend.

However:

  • We know that historically the gap between a drop in cases and a drop in admissions has been 16 days;
  • We also know (from boys3 age table) that we have seen an increase in cases in older age groups that followed the July 15th peak in total cases (largely driven by younger population).

My personal prediction is that England's hospital admissions will peak this week. It might be temporary but the numbers will start going down (at least for 10 days).

EasterIssland · 28/07/2021 21:52

@NannyAndJohn

The rise was to be expected.

Was nice to have a few days where we could pretend everything was ok, but I suspect it's back to reality now.

I knew you’d be here happy that numbers had gone up so you could say told you so

Like once you wrote me and people called you out

You must be smug about it

BanditoShipman · 28/07/2021 22:48

Apologies, I was comparing numbers to yesterday’s figure rather than last weeks.

JanFebAnyMonth · 28/07/2021 23:13

Thanks for the Colin Davies twitter thread @lonelyplanet, very good

JanFebAnyMonth · 28/07/2021 23:26

Yes good article by the BBC Head of Stats, Robert Cuffe : the numbers we need to watch (not just the obvious ones).

Had only vaguely heard about the social contact survey data (#4) before, interesting:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57984170

lonelyplanet · 29/07/2021 07:52

@JanFebAnyMonth The social contact survey is interesting and will be worth watching over the next few weeks. The latest report is from data up to 19th July. Here is their summary:
● Contacts amongst adults remain stable, whereas contacts for children have been
decreasing over the previous 5 weeks.
● Children's contacts have decreased corresponding to summer holiday school closure
dates across the Devolved Administrations.
● Mean recorded contact rates amongst secondary school-aged children is lower than was
reported during half-term, despite the majority of children still being in school. Reported
contact rates for primary-school aged children are at a similar level to that reported
during half term.
● The proportion of participating children isolating in England has sharply increased since
the start of June.
● Reported mean contacts for those children isolating were considerably lower than for
those who were not. However, there has also been a decline in reported mean contacts
for children who were attending school (not isolating) presumably as many of their
friends and classmates were absent due to isolation. In addition, increasing numbers of
secondary school-aged children (particularly years 11 to 13) are not expected to attend
school having taken their exams.
● Fewer adults are isolating than children and the absolute difference in recorded mean
contacts for adults who are isolating or not is much smaller than for children.

Full report can be found here:
cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/comix-reports.html

lonelyplanet · 29/07/2021 07:54

What is interesting is a lot of discussions have been focused around the end of term, but actually contacts between children have been reducing for the few weeks before this.

3asAbird · 29/07/2021 08:52

@lonelyplanet

What is interesting is a lot of discussions have been focused around the end of term, but actually contacts between children have been reducing for the few weeks before this.
I agree there were over a million children self isolating before term end either as close contact or had covid. On top of that some parents chose keep kids home as bubbles bursting so often or took a cheaper term time holiday.

I have a few questions as really confused right now.
The consensus by American CDC is double vaccinated Americans can catch covid and pass it on and they advising mask wearing again.

The new plan let double jabbed tourists not to quarantine if they double jabbed do they still test upon entry then test later like they currently do.

We told 10_15% postive covid cases are genome sequenced.
How much of this is airport's if any as assume airport testing private not state.
Are postive tourists currently included within the postive stats or just UK residents?

I am just thinking if from 16th close contacts don't have to test.
That there's less lft testing in education as there was talk charging for lots from end if August.
Education staff were expected test twice a week and postive lft led to taking a pcr to confirm and its the pcr results that included in daily stats and are genome sequence.

Confused if secondary school pupils testing new academic year apart from 2 tests at the start which I assume are optional.
My senior age child lft test average once a week when she remembered but more often if there were cases.
With my primary age kids I just tested if there were cases in their schools .
My concern is if double vax travellers don't quarantine or test and in the autumn we doing less testing is we won't see the next varient coming until its too late and community spread.

Is it natural for one varient end then another take over so will delta die down and then possibly beta or lambda take over.
As all 3 waves been different varients on the UK.

Also when are government going to change symptoms as symptoms are different if delta or vaccinated.
Watched latest tim spector video and hes usually optimistic but hes baffled by steep drop with no extra restriction.
I do think schools a big cause of the spread and we should be vaccinating teens and investing in better ventilation.
I do think we sending mixed messages giving a unvaccinated child the same rights as double vaccinated adult bot to quarantine as close contact as assuming under 18s are immune when we know from September and June how high cases were in education and fact we had close schools down again in January.

Scientists keep on about magic number immunity and don't think we can hit the magic number required without kids.
If you add up people who don't vaccinate either choice or medical reasons plus add all under 18s thats a sizable population that can be infected and virus possibly mutate.
Less testing or encouraging less testing will make us blind to when and where we have problems.
The wrong symptoms to enable them to get a test.
Not testing close contacts
Making testing very optional
Will all lead to less testing and complacency.