Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Yes all I've seen is vague description of children mixing out of school... I don't think that's true I know my dd hasn't gone out in 30 strong gangs indoors. But obviously anecdotes

Not every household of returning children responded so the researchers note that these could be underestimates.

What do people normally do for child care over the summer holidays?

@QueenStromba thanks for that twitter link, very descriptive!

This week's ONS deaths data is out.

"447 more deaths were recorded in-week compared to the 2015-19 year average. That’s 5% higher.

Year to date there have been 324,217 deaths recorded, which is 8% higher than the 2015-19 average."

mobile.twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1419940274038575105

Clubs, grandparents, leave them at home, SAHPs, take holidays/parental leave, swap days with other parents, child minders.
Of those options, only organised clubs would result in the same level of mixing as at school.

Childcare: mixture of summer camps (for those with money); relatives; mutual arrangements with mum friends: some to formal childcare run from nurseries.

I think, I’ve never had to do it tbh.

There are cheaper or free summer camps as well as the fully profit making ones. They’re run by local authorities and charities.

Of those options, only organised clubs would result in the same level of mixing as at school

BUT, school is always the same kids, and with less holidays, less chances of new seedings into the school groups, so whilst you might be meeting 30 kids, it's the same 30.

The summer camp will be 60+ kids (maybe only 6 or 8 sharing a room with in bed, but even more outside sleeping) summer camps in the US were big infectors - of course summer camp is pretty rare in the UK, but it would introduce infection in new groups.

We're seeing grandparents indoors for first time this summer, who have also seen their other adult children and offspring, some of whom are working etc, been in hospital for unrelated reasons.
Not sure if/ how that balances out being with the same group of 30 kids indoors and not mixing with anyone else/ not going to a workplace (our circumstances). Less predictable chain of infection I guess.

On testing and availability (Surrey) - DH isn't feeling well, has done an LFT which was negative, but decided to book PCR as well. It is 1pm, and he has just booked his PCR for 2pm at the local drive through. Over 1,000 free slots available.

So, either no-one is ill locally, or no-one is testing, or they are all on holiday, or they are all relying on LFT's.

@QueenStromba

School age children haven't had the highest case rate, 20-24 has. If that's all uni students and they're just planning to stay in their rooms all summer then great. More likely though that they'll be heading back home, seeing relatives and going out clubbing with their old mate's.

But most universities ended their terms in June, so we would have already seen the impact of them returning home and mixing with relatives and friends? Chances are that would have coincided with the euros too. Obviously impact of nightclubs remains to be seen but I would imagine 20-24s have been mixing for some time already.

The testing constraints were generally in the labs, not in the testing centres. The government has recently opened a new "superlab" to bump up testing capacity in anticipation of the 100,000+ cases per day:

www.itv.com/news/central/2021-07-13/leamington-spa-super-lab-opens-to-speed-up-covid-testing

I guess we will see if the "superlab" gets used.

Yes FredFredGeorge the minority of children who are at clubs may be mixing and matching more than they would be at school. But they are still a minority so on average I’d expect it to be a significant reduction in contact.

But reports say that the superman will only working on 10% capacity for some time (sorry can’t link article, Guardian maybe?).

Also someone on R4 this morning commenting on the extra test centres the govt is apparently setting up for the supervised testing for critical workers, and how that isn’t an easy job, added that if ALL close contacts are supposed to be doing supervised daily testing in 3 weeks’ time (16 Aug), we’re going to need a lot more capacity....

Sorry, not daily, that’s only in schools. I think??

I don't think that, as it stands at present, anyone at all needs to be tested daily after August 16th, so these new testing centres will be barely established before they are dismantled.

Certainly the current schools' guidance is for 2 LFTs before term starts and then 2x weekly at home until the end of September for all, isolation for someone positive for Covid. In the Government's announcements, it has been stated that there will be no isolation or additional LFT testing for any close contacts, including household contacts, though close contacts will be 'asked' to take a single PCR. This also applies to schools BUT it has been made clear that close contacts within school won't be traced by test and trace particularly - only contacts arising from e.g. sleepovers.

Have they really specified no isolation for household contacts?

It is a very obvious point but I have just realised that all the "big" Euro 2020 matches were 4 days apart from one another. The median incubation period for Delta is also 4 days.

If anyone wanted to design an ideal series of super spreading events, they would have gone for a similar schedule. People catching Covid at quarter finals went on infecting others at semi-finals in 4 days time, etc.

According to Paul Hunter (University of East Anglia):

'A lot of people might be disgusted by me saying this, but ultimately the Euros might turn out to be one of the things that make the rest of the summer less stressful, as we've effectively immunised a lot more younger people who wouldn't otherwise have come for or been available for a vaccine'.

Re: Paul Hunter - there’s a silver lining if I ever saw one! He’s not wrong though.

Not specifically data, but from the horses mouth as it were. DH just back from testing site. So this is a large drive in, a few hundred a hour capacity. Today 1 person per hour in coming in. DH was the only car. DH chatted to the tester, who said that two weeks ago, rammed, queueing, no free spots, full of youngsters, which matches our, and the data, observations. Last week it quietened down, and this week, they are effectively empty.

BUT, school is always the same kids, and with less holidays, less chances of new seedings into the school groups, so whilst you might be meeting 30 kids, it's the same 30.

For secondary? In a school of, say, 1500? A school in a biggish market town, with, say, three secondaries, with multiple buses carrying children from a number of schools, and unlimited, unmasked mixing on those buses? A school with narrow corridors, where unmasked children push and shove and shout at one another, and no bubbling in dining halls? A school where teachers and TAs are considered “not in close contact” so work across bubbles? A school with limited ventilation and toilet facilities? Because these are the reality, which is nothing like the sanitised images published and broadcast in the media, showing six or so children sedately sitting socially distanced from one another while a teacher at the front of the room gestures at a diagram in a vaguely pedagogical fashion.

@QueenStromba

Have they really specified no isolation for household contacts?

No isolation for anyone double vaccinated, or for anyone under 18 and a few months (to allow for all Y13 school pupils), is what has been specified. Household contacts haven't been specifically excluded from this.

Mind you,. the BBC is VERY confused about this (describes it as 'test and release' in a recent article) so it may be that the confusion is deliberate and a somewhat revised set of rules is on its way.

BUT, school is always the same kids, and with less holidays, less chances of new seedings into the school groups, so whilst you might be meeting 30 kids, it's the same 30

Even in primary, with class 'bubbles', things are not as confined as you might expect.

Children might be taught in relatively fixed classes of 30 or so, but they will share toilets and lunch facilities with others. Equually, even more than during the holidays, they will go on to further activities and childcare - it's not unusual for a child to go to a breakfast club in school (across all age groups), then school, then an after school club (same setting but totally different set of children from the breakfast club, and different every night), then home, then on to e.g. Cubs or gymnastics or dance or swimming, sometimes in shared transport. The after school activities have been, in the main, admirable in their Covid efforts, but they are settings in which children from multiple schools and classes mix pretty closely, and it's quite normal for a child to attend 3 or 4 different activities over a week.