Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

922/14

Deaths 14

Hospitalisations still stating last updated on 20/7 - 922

Thanks

In Australia it was fleeting indoor contact no? Shopping mall was the one I heard unless there was another?

Hopefully hospitalisations will start to reflect the reducing case numbers in a couple of weeks

Although there’s recorded cases, at least in Australia, of fleeting outdoor contact spreading Delta isn’t there, or was that disproved?

Based on what I have read in a semi-scientific article (that I cannot find):

1. The "fleeing contact" actually occurred indoors, inside a shopping mall.
2. A single case of documented outdoor transmission happened in a cafe/restaurant where two people sat at tables next to each other for a period of time.

I think the general point to note is that this isn’t totally unheard of in the pandemic India’s cases fell suddenly in November when everyone assumed a rise after divwalli (yes they rose again in feb/March but were lower than expected after a big event. Us began falling in January before a vaccination impact could be seen and after Christmas mixing. No water tight explanation was provided for either other curious just sometimes seems to not behave as expected.

I do wonder if it comes down to the “k” factor as spread short uneven possible to guess but harder to predict than other viruses.

Testing isn't massively down either on the last couple of weeks. Not to warrant the case numbers dropping we are seeing anyway

I can’t find the PCR positivity rate on the dashboard. I’ve seen snips showing it finally reducing, thank god, but can’t find the actual link. Could anyone please point me in the right direction please?

@Itsprobablynotcominghome

England Hospitalisations:

People in hospital increased for two weeks in early July at >40% per week. (To 10th: 48% increase from 1636 to 2429, and to 17th: 42% 2429 to 3442).

Although we won’t get the final data point until Monday/Tuesday. Currently it is 4401 up from 3442, which is a 28% increase. So almost impossible that it will reach anywhere near 42% with one days data to go (+42% would be 4887, more likely it’ll go to about 4600 which would be a 35% rise).

So that’s pretty promising to me. And if these recent lower case numbers are genuine I would expect a big slow down in this, and maybe even a reversal in 10-14 days time. We’ll see.

Update: so 24th’s data point was 4476, which was a 30% rise.

First two points for this week gave a 13% to 5055. Be tough to get lower than 30% for the week, but we’ll see.

Will be really interesting to see what this and next weeks numbers are like.

Cases are dropping in the Netherlands and other European countries too. You could put it down to coincidence - different things happening in each country but is it likely that they would all lead to the same type of drop?

@JanFebAnyMonth I received a box of those today, too. They're for swabbing just inside the nostril only, it's a slightly different extraction technique to get the sample off the swab, then read the test at 15 minutes (but no later than 20). I found it slightly more faffy but imagine it will help those who struggle with a throat swab.

Weather, vaccine & infection immunity wall, K factor, odd spike from mass events, higher viral load gives more symptoms so more isolate. It can be a mix of all those at different times in different places, it doesn't have to be just one factor.

I would much prefer to swab just in the nostril area!

Where did you get these from?

Delurking to say we got some of those new ones today. Didn't realise it was just nose only (not used them yet).

Atomic ordered them through the NHS website as we have been doing for months. This is just what came. Didn't order specifically.

Would the drop in rates in 20 - 29 year olds be down to the ping enforced lockdown?

Offspring are getting the nostril-swab-only type when they go back to school in September (source - email from school).

@YouthfulIndiscretion

I can’t find the PCR positivity rate on the dashboard. I’ve seen snips showing it finally reducing, thank god, but can’t find the actual link. Could anyone please point me in the right direction please?

this one ? coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=nation&areaName=England#card-weekly_number_of_people_receiving_a_pcr_test_and_positivity @YouthfulIndiscretion

@OrangeBananaFish thank you!

Thanks. Still nearly a week old, but at least the last data we’ve got is creeping down from their scarily high levels.
Duncan Robertson has screen shots which look more recent and much more reassuring but I can’t find the data behind them on a live link.
mobile.twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1419701320697712643

.

It's great that we have such lower case levels.

This significant decline may be due to a mix of factors. It would be great if we have hit a peak and numbers are declining just prior to and at the point of opening up further.

Someone did post on Facebook that 313/315 English local authorities have test positivity rates over 5%, which might suggest that a fair number of infected people aren't getting tests, which might be a factor in this.

@Bordois

Cases are dropping in the Netherlands and other European countries too. You could put it down to coincidence - different things happening in each country but is it likely that they would all lead to the same type of drop?

Have many of us been having a heatwave in Europe? (some obviously have had floods)

@lonelyplanet

For what it's worth - here's my theory on the drop in cases.

I think it is mainly to do with holidays. Millions of people will go away in the next few weeks because of the school holidays. Due to the stress of this year, no one wants to miss their opportunity to get away or to lose money. Some people will be isolating or being incredibly careful before going. Others will just not bother testing as they'd rather not know. Lots of kids missed the last week of term for this reason.

I initially thought this, and it's certainly true in my case and among friends. Arguments against though:

• I can't see any evidence of it in mobility data

• I'm in scotland, so back from holiday a few weeks ago and switched to "make the most of the summer before it goes to shit" mode, but cases are still falling
• I think that would show up most in 35 age ranges.

Is it possible people are reporting their negative LFTs more now as they're being required for entry to events more widely? So the number of reported tests hasn't fallen but lots of those people are only testing for an event and expect to get a negative result. At the same time others with mild symptoms (or no symptoms) may have stopped testing. Are some businesses no longer requiring staff to test, I wonder? I noticed Pret had removed any sign of covid measures from their store - no screens or anything (which seemed quite premature - what harm would it do to still keep a screen between their unmasked staff and the hundreds of customers they will serve every day?).

I don't think any of that would account for such a big drop in cases though, but the timing seems so strangely coincidental right after the 19th.