Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

How confident are you wise people that LFTs are being logged/reported by young people .

Anecdotally friends'offspring and their friends are testing with LFTs but are not reporting when positive .Though they do contact each other with the result when positive .

You mean positives? I am confident (I hope) that they are

That negatives arent or that testing of them has dropped I imagine is true

Yes I do mean positives .

I also have to confess we do so many LF I only report to school. Would report a positive I think though. So if positivity rate is dropping that's encouraging surely ?

The LF logging system seems to add an extra layer each time I log on to do it !!

Anecdata: I'm the only person I know who logs negative LFTs. If I suggest doing it other people seem very surprised and can't see why they would bother!

24k today 50% down from last week.

I know people say that we're doing less tests but that wouldn't account for a continues drop in cases. It would drop and then stay stable or rise as actual cases rise.

I'm fairly confident this is a real drop in infections now. Feeling much more optimistic.

Have also just heard that test centre(s?) not giving out LFTs any more. Although apparently can still be ordered online? Schools aren’t supposed to have given any out for the summer hols either.

There was the report that LFTs were only guaranteed to be free until 31 July, so that hasn’t changed yet.

But surely all these smaller factors can’t account for the massive and sudden drops?

Oh and I see that there are “technical difficulties” with reporting today’s Deaths number, third day running.

DH and I took DD to a birthday party this weekend.

We all did LFTs before that. We didn't log them (negative results).

When we chatted to other parents at the party, it turned out pretty much everyone did a test (even though no-one ever asked for it).

I would be very surprised if anyone else had logged their results.

But surely all these smaller factors can’t account for the massive and sudden drops

That's what I think. Maybe account for a couple of thousand but certainly not 50*

I really don't feel like much changed on "freedom day" either most people that would have gone to clubs will have been socialising at unis etc any with no distancing. It may slow down the decline but I can't see cases increasing with it.

Let's not forget that before the football the rate of increase had slowed right down anyway so we could already have been reaching the peak then.

50%

I normally take a lft twice a week. Went to the zoo yesterday and as class instructor has asked us to take tests if we've been in crowded places (it actually wasn't that crowded but felt like it after the last year) I'm going to be taking one every day for the next 5 days. But I don't record the negatives.

Excellent figures from yesterday however a small note of caution that as we all know numbers (across the board - cases, deaths, vaccinations etc) always tend to dip at the weekend with Sunday's data (reported on Monday) always being the lowest.

Dd and I did lat flows for work and never logged them.
I would if it was positive other wise I wouldn't bother I know others also do it them but do not log.

Amazing figures for the today, am crossing everything

It's actually 37.5% down week on week - which is still very good.

The number reported on the previous Mon (July 19) for the UK was 39,950.

@wintertravel1980

It's actually 37.5% down week on week - which is still very good.

The number reported on the previous Mon (July 19) for the UK was 39,950.

Ah sorry I think I read the wrong date for cases. Still a great drip though:)

People on Parents United reporting receiving a new sort of LFD - see pic. Can’t quite make out the brand - Orient something?

Noteworthy thing is that apparently the results only take 15 mins! Haven’t heard of these before?

For what it's worth - here's my theory on the drop in cases.

I think it is mainly to do with holidays. Millions of people will go away in the next few weeks because of the school holidays. Due to the stress of this year, no one wants to miss their opportunity to get away or to lose money. Some people will be isolating or being incredibly careful before going. Others will just not bother testing as they'd rather not know. Lots of kids missed the last week of term for this reason.

JanFebAnyMonth just received a box here... will take a closer look.

@lonelyplanet

For what it's worth - here's my theory on the drop in cases.

I think it is mainly to do with holidays. Millions of people will go away in the next few weeks because of the school holidays. Due to the stress of this year, no one wants to miss their opportunity to get away or to lose money. Some people will be isolating or being incredibly careful before going. Others will just not bother testing as they'd rather not know. Lots of kids missed the last week of term for this reason.

I agree with this. I've also seen several messages on group chats saying just let me know if your child is positive, no need for test and trace. The interesting data will be if hospitalisation reflect this drop , which we will see in a week or so.

Schools and holidays do not necessarily explain the largest drop that occurred in the group aged 20-24 (the graph is the courtesy of James Ward on twitter @JamesWard73).

Here is an alternative view (from @michaeljswalker):

Recent drop is covid cases just shows that we have enough immunity that, absent mass events, and in presence of heatwave, R can fall below 1.

We will discover later this week whether bad weather and nightclubs (albeit with a little more immunity) will push above 1 again.

The trend from Northern Ireland over past week (increasing cases) shows that mass events might matter more than holidays and closed schools.

Or the 20-24 yo students who finished uni a few weeks before schools, went on holiday.

Thst’s Interesting @wintertravel1980.

I suppose the most notable thing after the Euros ending was the heatwave, meaning that a lot of socialising moved outside (pub garden/pavement tables/ parks/ BBQs) that would otherwise have been inside. And if inside, all windows and even doors were open, even perhaps in offices, shops, workshops and classrooms previously resistant to opening them.

Although there’s recorded cases, at least in Australia, of fleeting outdoor contact spreading Delta isn’t there, or was that disproved?

It’s looking promising, although puzzling.

Let’s hope it continues to decrease daily.

Let’s hope the daily death cases also slow and decrease this week.

Do we have today’s hospitalisation and deaths yet ?