Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Hee hee

What did India do to reduce the cases of Delta there earlier in the year.

Their wave goes up very sharply and down again just as sharply.

Could our current wave be mirroring that?

@Summerofcontent

What did India do to reduce the cases of Delta there earlier in the year.

Their wave goes up very sharply and down again just as sharply.

Could our current wave be mirroring that?

They didn't do much. My hope is that delta is just so transmissible that many people get it without symptoms and then it has a dramatic decline. No evidence to suggest this is the case but we can live in hope :)

@Summerofcontent

What did India do to reduce the cases of Delta there earlier in the year.

Their wave goes up very sharply and down again just as sharply.

Could our current wave be mirroring that?

I have really been wondering this, especially when you compare them with Brazil which is all over the place last time I checked.

@Summerofcontent

What did India do to reduce the cases of Delta there earlier in the year.

Their wave goes up very sharply and down again just as sharply.

Could our current wave be mirroring that?

Some states imposed lockdowns - Delhi for example had a lockdown from mid-end April, but also the situation was so dreadful in many places (and on the news) that people imposed a lockdown on themselves, people stopped leaving the house (including for daily exercise), shops voluntarily closed, domestic workers were asked (and often paid thankfully) to stay at home. Additionally, many international companies still had wfh policies in place and schools were still not in session in person. They have very strict border entry requirements, and inter-state travel was heavily restricted. The huge super-spreader events (Kumbh mela, cricket matches, election rallies) stopped.

Re India - The situation would have changed by now? Re coming out of this.

Have cases started going up again?

As usually with an unnatural peak created by lockdown it then reverses and cases increase after it ends.

It is interesting as at one point India thought they had got through it - reports last year. Then sharp increase and decline.

Also typically the downward part of the curve is slower than upward in lockdown.

For us anyway, not sure if their approach would give this difference.

@MarshaBradyo

Re India - The situation would have changed by now? Re coming out of this.

Have cases started going up again?

As usually with an unnatural peak created by lockdown it then reverses and cases increase after it ends.

It is interesting as at one point India thought they had got through it - reports last year. Then sharp increase and decline.

Cases have dropped massively (running at similar to the UK despite 13x population), and (anecdata) people locally largely believe the figures and have returned to previous activity such as interstate travel (albeit many states still require PCR tests to cross state lines) in large numbers. Schools are still closed/many companies wfh. India’s seroprevalence suggests around 62% of unvaccinated people have antibodies for Covid, so like most of us thought the actual cases both at and in the lead up to the peak must have been huge www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/2f6c0907-a556-414a-920c-88c8ce482ed1

We know of whole apartment blocks that had Covid in over 70% of families at a stage, so it doesn’t surprise me that the figures have fallen back so dramatically.

Re: schools

Here is a graph of cases from an unnamed place in the UK. When do we think schools closed over there?

The answer is: June 30.

This is the graph for Northern Ireland. It is one of a few places where cases are still going up even though school holidays started more than 3 weeks ago. Hopefully, the trend will turn sooner rather than later.

In NI there are lots of potential super spreader events happing in July with marches, that will skew the numbers? I know of a few people who travelled there from Scotland, and all came back with covid.

It's a shame there's no breakdown by age on the dashboard for NI.

@QueenStromba there is on the NI dashboard - they don’t update the pdfs over the weekend, but this is Friday’s version - page 13 gives you the age breakdown for the previous 7 days. Highest cases in 20-39, similar to rest of UK.

www.health-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/health/doh-db-230721_0.pdf

OK, that is interesting @wintertravel1980.

I just can’t fathom quite this enormous and sudden reversal/size of drop in cases.

Mike Tildesley on R4 this morning said he thought it was schools, which he stated meant less asymptomatic testing. Not sure if he knew how small the proportion of teens testing (or at the very least, reporting) was.

Ah, thank you. Interesting that cases in under 20s are rising faster now that schools are shut.

@JanFebAnyMonth

OK, that is interesting *@wintertravel1980*.

I just can’t fathom quite this enormous and sudden reversal/size of drop in cases.

Mike Tildesley on R4 this morning said he thought it was schools, which he stated meant less asymptomatic testing. Not sure if he knew how small the proportion of teens testing (or at the very least, reporting) was.

Yeah, reduced LFT testing doesn't explain it unless the people who've stopped LFT testing are the ones most likely to be infected.

... which is very unlikely!

See here, even The Spectator is sceptical about “it all being over”:

www.spectator.co.uk/article/covid-cases-are-falling---but-don-t-think-it-s-all-over?fbclid=IwAR1oRMazpSKXi3O-fFQR9H95c7HNgWqSSiaChiKnNgqlqsSKFRhCWgkDzyc

Cases in Wales have almost halved since last week. 1130 down from 2053

I'm cautiously pleased to see the numbers going down, but a couple of thoughts about schools & LFT testing...

Firstly, my DD's state school was due to finish on the 16th July, but made a decision to switch the whole school to online learning for the final week as so many bubbles had "popped" + parents were beginning to withdraw their DC so as not to spoil holiday plans. I'm not sure how widely this was replicated, but DD was last in school on the 9th July. My sense is that certainly in our region, few schools had full attendance until Friday 23rd.

A second, and I suspect less relevant thought is that as an NHS employee I have been reporting my LFTs to my employers portal since January. From 19th July they now have to be reported to the NHS website which takes far longer than the employer's version. Can't help wondering if a more complex reporting system will reduce the number of LFTs reported, but whether this will have any impact or indeed by measurable is debateable.

as an NHS employee I have been reporting my LFTs to my employers portal since January. From 19th July they now have to be reported to the NHS website
Similar to schools who set up double reporting, the additional sites led to people not reporting LFTs through the NHS website. This led to statements that only 15% were logged as being taken. It's been reported as a scandal of Test & Trace wasted resources, with suggestions nobody took them, so unfortunately the process was guaranteed at that point to need to be changed.

I think they should log an employer (the way they log the school) and inform them to streamline the reporting. I'd have thought the main use case is where most of us have one family member wanting to quickly scan a number of QR codes and log that they're all negative; so ask to add family members testing today, select who had a negative test result and scan QR codes; then select who had a positive test and scan QR codes and book a set of PCR tests for all (plus add any household members who didn't test). They also need people to be able to correct a record if they make a mistake.

You'd think people would be more inclined to report a positive test though and LFT positivity seems to have peaked around the 17th.

Yes, it seems unlikely that people would test and ignore the outcome, they just wouldn't test. There also needs to be an option to log multiple tests for one person taken on one day if some of the mumsnet threads are representative.

Yes I think LFT reporting is an absolute pain - with DD it was under a minute to report to her school testing system but it wouldnt save on the NHS so took an age. I am guilty I think of just reporting them on the school website but not NHS.

Never a positive though I cant believe many would ignore that.

I confess that I hadn't previously been aware of the issues around LFT reporting, and agree that it doesn't explain the recent peak and decline. It's more that as a rule follower, I had the thought about how much faff it now is, and was tempted for the first time in months not to bother. Worry is that if I'm thinking it, others could be doing it. Let's hope I'm in a grumpy mood and that I'm very wrong.

Scotland showing another drop from 1464 last Monday to 1000 today.

NI has dropped from 1776 to 639 😲😲😲