Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Oooops - forgot to link:

www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Test-and-trace-in-England-progress-update-Summary.pdf

Also, I didn't realise, this budget also covers all the genomic testing and variant monitoring, which is pleasing, as T&T always gets such a bad rap.

We discussed the 14% previously, I certainly imagine a vast majority more than that were used, so many people have reported not bothering to register them, even people on this thread said they wouldn't necessarily report and just go straight to PCR themselves (particularly when cases were low and LFD didn't trigger tracing).

There's also loads of anecdotes about people being super wasteful, multiple tests at the same time etc. But I don't think the 14% is necessarily reflective of the number of tests actually carried out or the number who used them.

I used to really like reading these threads and found them super informative, but they have been infiltrated! Such a shame

@cantkeepawayforever

But won’t vaccines nearly being done for all adults by then make a big change from last year?

Yes, my comparison with last year was on the 'shape of the graph' rather than the 'specific nature of the cases within the graph'.

This wave has been built, very substantially, on cases in younger age groups. Of those age groups, only the vaccination status of 18+ will have changed by September, and then only just - 18 yo DD, in a region known for being somewhat ahead of national rollout, will get her second vaccine towards the end of August.

The age groups brought together in their hundreds / thousands by return to school (in far greater numbers, and with a far greater concentration of the unvaccinated, compared with summertime mixing) will still be unvaccinated in September, and it is from that group I would imagine that the surge in cases will reappear. It may well grow faster, if unseen, because of the lack of self-isolation.

The impact on higher age groups - and therefore on hospitalisations and deaths - is somewhat unknown. The oldest groups could be caught between waning immunity from initial vaccination but pre-booster by schools returning at the very start of Septembe.

I agree with points on surge.

And unknown impact on older. Maybe within capacity but I couldn’t predict.

Also I think this is why we did nightclubs etc now rather than delay until all 18 plus offered so some surge could happen now

the remaining areas following on from the earlier graphs, possibly the most critical area East of England UTLAs

Norfolk and Suffolk several still rising here, but from a far lower base relative to most areas, and no significant levels of increase

finishing off the East of England with Essex and Hertfordshire; all on the right side of the line

East Midlands - Derbyshire; Leicestershire and Lincolnshire

Northamptonshire and Nottinghamshire plus the region's UTLAs - Derby, Leicester, Nottingham and the glorified MSOA that is Rutland

@boys3

finishing off the East of England with Essex and Hertfordshire; all on the right side of the line

Sorry, I'm a bit dim - has chelmsford had a massive drop?

West Midlands UTLAs

West Midlands - Staffordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire

South West UTLAs

South West - Devon, Gloucestershire, Somerset

South East UTLAs

South East - Buckinghamshire, Hampshire, Oxfordshire

South East - Kent, Surrey, East and West Sussex

@Bordois ; it has, although I cut the axis a bit early Castle Point biggest drop in those two counties. Good effort by Chelmsford still though:)

Pleased to see the EofE graphs. Thanks Boys.

[quote boys3]@Bordois ; it has, although I cut the axis a bit early Castle Point biggest drop in those two counties. Good effort by Chelmsford still though:)[/quote]
🥳 thanks 😊 numbers were looking a bit scary the last couple of weeks

indeed, although there is always at the back of my mind:

has a spreadsheet been misplaced or run out of rows

A pretty abrupt but very welcome turn around.

In England Thursday 15th 56,250 cases; and nigh on 50,000 both the day before and day after.

Thursday 22nd; three day's worth of reporting so pretty close to completion 26,242; 30,000 less. It will be really interesting to see the age breakdown for the 22nd, couple more days to wait on that, and compare it with the 15th.

Friday 23rd, 21,181 after 2 days of reporting; this time last week Friday 16th 2nd day of reporting was 37,431

Then for yesterday 4716 reported (today) as compared with 7949 for the equivalent point last week.

PHE search in progress

Is it possible that the euros forced an early peak and now cases are dropping down to their natural level?

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/25/public-health-england-criticised-excluding-reinfections-official/

I thought this would be of interest to the dataficionadas

(Do the journalists read this thread do you think?)

"Scientists working at Public Health England have defended the Government’s recording of daily Covid-19 figures after it emerged reinfections are not included in the daily numbers.

A reinfection is when a person who has previously tested positive for Covid-19 recovers and then catches the virus and tests positive again.

Weekly figures published by PHE show this is a rarity, and that such instances account for around 1.2 per cent of all daily cases.

Official figures show that there have been around 23,000 total reinfection events since the start of the pandemic, compared to more than 5.6 million confirmed cases.

However, Robert Peston, ITV's political editor, tweeted that the fact PHE did not include reinfections in daily figures was “deeply troubling” and “bonkers”, adding that “there is deep disquiet among officials” on the topic."

Some pictures now the drop is getting through on the map... Yes, ugly purple and still bad blue. What's interesting though are the areas in blue (lower cases):
Hounslow, Newham, Slough, Kingston upon Thames, Redbridge, Enfield, Luton... In the NW I had to drill in more to see the blue in Bolton, Blackburn... Further south for Leicester.
This isn't just vaccines, and it is exciting.