96 dead today...

[Homeontherangeuk]

But Boris knows what he's doing...

The info from Israel re falling immunity four months after the second jab suggests going into winter with very high cases could be messy, surely.

I'm increasingly unsure what the fucking plan is, other than head in sand.

@lannistunut maybe that's why they have a booster scheme planned?

[quote weddread]@lannistunut maybe that's why they have a booster scheme planned?[/quote]
Yes, but they (Israel) have low cases, so have time, whereas we have high and rising cases, so this is an issue. It will be a slow business re-vaccinating them all.

I missed that about Israel and Pfizer immunity falling

Seems very short

Was it that or increased transmission of Delta?

@lannistunut do you have the link please? I missed it too!

It is the immunity itself falling.

Yes very short. Fortunately severe disease still prevented at high % - but if lots of old people get it, that is obviously a major issue if a country is relying solely on vaccines as the route out (paging Johnson).

Here is the chart: mobile.twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1418273528986615809

The info from Israel re falling immunity four months after the second jab suggests going into winter with very high cases could be messy, surely

Is the falling immunity established by an increase in cases or simply serology testing?

@MarshaBradyo I found it - doesn't prevent symptoms but -

At the same time, protection against hospitalization and serious illness remained strong.

So that's OK!

[quote lannistunut]It is the immunity itself falling.

Yes very short. Fortunately severe disease still prevented at high % - but if lots of old people get it, that is obviously a major issue if a country is relying solely on vaccines as the route out (paging Johnson).

Here is the chart: mobile.twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1418273528986615809[/quote]
Ok thanks

Those numbers are very good news bad news in spectrum!

I wonder if AZ is similar.

[quote weddread]@MarshaBradyo I found it - doesn't prevent symptoms but -

At the same time, protection against hospitalization and serious illness remained strong.

So that's OK![/quote]
No, the point is it is not that ok.

We need the older people to not catch it, either due to low case rate or vaccine, in order that the % who will still go to hospital don't go to hospital.

This could mean vaccines alone not enough to prevent that percentage getting hospitalised.

It is early data though.

@lannistunut

You saying falling immunity after 4 months made it sound like exactly that. But the efficacy is falling, not prevention of serious illness.

So could be a lot worse.

We also doing an immunity study in the UK.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/22/uk-scientists-back-covid-boosters-as-study-finds-post-jab-falls-in-antibodies

But yes the data from Israel is worrying think they only used pfizer

[quote weddread]@lannistunut

You saying falling immunity after 4 months made it sound like exactly that. But the efficacy is falling, not prevention of serious illness.

So could be a lot worse.[/quote]
Agree. It's not as bad as it sounds if the efficacy is still there which is sounds like it is.

I have read, but will have to find where! That AZ is more of a slow burner vaccine than the mRNA vaccines but gives longer protection than mRNA vaccines as it creates a stronger T cell response which is the long term arm of your immune systems response.

Vaccines are still worthwhile but we need boosters and other measures

[quote weddread]@lannistunut

You saying falling immunity after 4 months made it sound like exactly that. But the efficacy is falling, not prevention of serious illness.

So could be a lot worse.[/quote]
Yes it could be far far worse, things always could be!

If the economy can reopen because double vaccinated people don't need to isolate because they don't transmit etc., where does this leave us? Symptomatic people a) spread it more b) create yet more variants and c) feel ill and are off work etc. Vaccines were supposed to bring herd immunity.

We can't vaccinate 12+ because we need boosters.

@lannistunut genuine question, wtf do we do then?

Feels like there's no way out.

[quote weddread]@lannistunut genuine question, wtf do we do then?

Feels like there's no way out.[/quote]
Genuine answer - I have no clue.

We can't vaccinate 12+ because we don't have enough Pfizer and have to choose between these boosters or them?

Maybe this will.not be too bad but I fear herd immunity is not so simple.

I think herd immunity is now not definite

I’m losing the track slightly but I don’t feel surprised at this so I must have taken it in at some point

@MarshaBradyo @lannistunut

Could explain why the government are going for herd immunity via infection this summer!

weddread yes could be worth looking at that, maybe will help?

[quote weddread]**@MarshaBradyo* @lannistunut*

Could explain why the government are going for herd immunity via infection this summer![/quote]
They need to clarify their intentions if so, but no, I think this is 'we need some money spent before restrictions in Sept' (or August as Whitty said last week )

@Fairyliz

Surely this must mean the vaccine isn’t working!!! On July 19th 2020 no one had been vaccinated and less people had had Covid so no natural immunity. Yet the deaths then were on 26. Still awful but not as bad. So does the vaccine work or do we just have to take our chance?

Is there some verification that those dead actually had the vaccine? It's just I have read that quite a number of people are listening to conspiracies, not getting the vaccine, or not getting the booster, getting the virus and dying.

I would rather take my chances (which I have done) with the scientists and take their vaccination, than take my chances with the virus. I am fully vaccinated. From my understanding, those who catch the virus after being vaccinated, still get it, but the vaccine has reduced the dangerous and deadly symptoms. I've yet to catch it whilst vaccinated because put simply, I still don't want that virus so I still take precautions no matter what the government said. I locked down before they told us to and I'm not immuno-supressed, nor did I have to for health reasons. It just made logical sense for me to isolate.

It just made logical sense for me to isolate

Will you do that forever though?

twitter.com/shalituri/status/1412424696491089926?s=21

Here's a link to a thread of scientist critiquing the Israeli study if anyone wants to look! It get a bit complicated when looking at it, but not sure the methodology of the study holds up so not sure the reduction in efficacy that is concluded is reliable.

@Cherryberrybonbon

Remember when they said the way out was for everyone to be vaccinated….. nhs staff are already being told to cancel October onwards annual leave because of the third wave that’s going to hit us…. I think we’re in it now

This is not true