96 dead today...

[Homeontherangeuk]

But Boris knows what he's doing...

@Ratalie
You are also not taking into account the fact that most people in the U.K. catch the virus in their family setting where often several generations of the same family live together. See statistics from Leicester the most locked down city in the U.K.
The average house size in Canada is much larger than that in the U.K. so easier to keep away from other members.
I am fortunate enough to live in a reasonable large house so didn’t catch Covid despite two family members having it.

...the UK doing so much worse than basically every country on the planet
Complete bullshit. The Uk is 20th on the list of deaths per capita. That's not including countries with massive discrepancies between their reported covid deaths and excess deaths (hello Russia) and countries that don't have the ability to maintain accurate statistics.

@duffeldaisy

"It's either get it out the way now or spread it over months. The NHS is very unlikely to be overwhelmed if we do it now so there is no sense I delaying."

If you look at the figures today, there was a death in each bracket of 20s, 30s, 40s and 50s (and then more as ages go up). I think it's the third day running of having someone in their thirties die.

If you follow this way of thinking, then it's saying that a person with potentially a lot of life to live is going to die if they get it, so they might as well die now, rather than have another 6 months of life - or rather than possibly not die because in another 6 months we could have vaccinated more people?

It's being repeated everywhere at the moment, that we just need to get used to the deaths, and we don't have this attitude for anything else. We try to extend life where we can, we try to avoid excess deaths.

Just another couple of months of vaccinating could mean the difference between life and death for thousands and thousands of people.

We already held off for another month so more people could be vaccinated. They are bringing forward the gap between the first and second vaccination. Where I am we have walk in centres all over the place, I was able to cancel my appointment for the second vaccination at 12 weeks and go into a walk in centre and get it at 8 weeks easily.

The trouble with just a few more weeks is how long will that go on for? Just a few more weeks until that group is done, and that one and that one. Then oh it's winter we can't open up now as that would be crazy we better wait until feb. Then on and on.

These people who want to keep lockdowns and restrictions must have very comfortable lives with very comfortable incomes and have all the time in the world to home school their children. Most people don't. What about those people and industries who have been wiped out financially and in terms of mental health by these lockdowns? Now furlough has finished we have to open up.

The trouble with just a few more weeks is how long will that go on for? Just a few more weeks until that group is done, and that one and that one. Then oh it's winter we can't open up now as that would be crazy we better wait until feb. Then on and on.

This is presented as a rational argument but is actually completely irrational.

What this really is a cover story for 'I can not mentally cope so please just pretend it is over so I can go back to not thinking about something that scares me because it is out of my control'.

Yes, the reality of life is sometimes we don't know how long things will go on for. But that is not a good reason to open up before the population is fully vaccinated and therefore cause more people to die.

@Egghead68

Delta is too transmissible to get herd immunity unless we get all children vaccinated which isn't on the agenda

That’s right. We would need about 98% of the population vaccinated which includes children. This could be put on the agenda if there was the political will. Most countries are vaccinating at least older children.

I’m not, by the way, necessarily advocating this, just putting it forward as an option.

@egghead68 I find it interesting how over the last year the percentage required for herd immunity just keeps going up and up and how it more and more relies on getting absolutely everyone vaccinated including those who absolutely don't need it, in the case of children and how those of who have developed natural immunity through fighting off infection don't count at all.

@duffeldaisy

"What’s your alternative? Stay cooped up in our homes wearing masks forever?"

Not forever. But every week more we do do that, we save many, many lives.
It's like saying in 1943- Well, Hitler will carry on bombing anyway. What, you think we should keep on bothering going down air raid shelters forever?

I think we have had more restrictions during COVID than they had in WW2

how those of who have developed natural immunity through fighting off infection don't count at all this is because vaccines appear to offer far greater protection against variants, yes.

@lannistunut

The trouble with just a few more weeks is how long will that go on for? Just a few more weeks until that group is done, and that one and that one. Then oh it's winter we can't open up now as that would be crazy we better wait until feb. Then on and on.

This is presented as a rational argument but is actually completely irrational.

What this really is a cover story for 'I can not mentally cope so please just pretend it is over so I can go back to not thinking about something that scares me because it is out of my control'.

Yes, the reality of life is sometimes we don't know how long things will go on for. But that is not a good reason to open up before the population is fully vaccinated and therefore cause more people to die.

I don't feel the way you describe at all. My MH did suffer for a short period during the second lockdown but I am ok now. I genuinely think this can be stretched out and out for one reason after another not to open up. I know COVID hasn't gone, I know people are dying but whilst deaths remain in line with that of flu and hospitals aren't overwhelmed we must open up. We don't lock down for flu every year, we can't do the same for covid. We won't get to 0 deaths. We can't live in limbo for ever, every aspect of our lives is a risk in someway. Those who want to carry on with shielding/masks etc so so but the majority of the population now need to get on with it. Plus, they couldn't justify the olympics and tennis abs football much longer whilst keeping the rest of us locked away.

They always said we would open up once the most vulnerable were vaccinated, we did that, then we waited until that age group and that age group. We can't wait for everyone.

@lannistunut

The trouble with just a few more weeks is how long will that go on for? Just a few more weeks until that group is done, and that one and that one. Then oh it's winter we can't open up now as that would be crazy we better wait until feb. Then on and on.

This is presented as a rational argument but is actually completely irrational.

What this really is a cover story for 'I can not mentally cope so please just pretend it is over so I can go back to not thinking about something that scares me because it is out of my control'.

Yes, the reality of life is sometimes we don't know how long things will go on for. But that is not a good reason to open up before the population is fully vaccinated and therefore cause more people to die.

@lannistunut if everyone eligible to take the vaccine has had the opportunity we need to reopen and let the dice fall were they will. If the unvaccinated are more inclined to catch covid then they will catch it. If the uptick in deaths is a result of adverse reactions to the vaccine or it making the vaccinated more susceptible to covid then the vaccinated will have to deal with that.

Lockdown is not a long term solution. The overall health, physical and mental, of the population needs society to be open and free to move around. We need to be able to put food on our tables and live our lives to the best of our ability otherwise why bother living if we're just stuck at home all day afraid to step outside.

this is because vaccines appear to offer far greater protection against variants, yes.

No. The exact opposite appears to be true.

Plenty of breakthrough infections happening among the vaccinated, but cases of reinfection remain rare, even with variants.

I think we have had more restrictions during COVID than they had in WW2

In lockdown yes, but not by step 3. They were very different, so in WW2 sometimes you could have a big party, sometimes you were in a shelter or a full blackout, it was more up and down and unpredictable. In step 3 you could reliably go to e.g. a restaurant with friends but large things were restricted/mitigated.

I feel there is too much black and white thinking, it is not total lockdown vs. total freedom, we need some mitigations for some more time, if we want to keep deaths lower.

Keeping deaths lower or accepting higher deaths is a political choice, the government have chosen higher deaths. Whether the public support that is not yet clear. I personally would have preferred a longer stretch in step three and lower deaths.

What mid level mitigations are enough to keep delta at bay though?

In ROI there’s no indoor mixing and no indoor hospitality and cases are still skyrocketing. So it would need to be more than that.

@Cosmichat yes, dear. It’s because the delta variant is twice as transmissible as the original variant.

If you don’t understand the basics, perhaps get someone to explain them to you before commenting.

These people who want to keep lockdowns and restrictions must have very comfortable lives with very comfortable incomes and have all the time in the world to home school their children. Most people don't. What about those people and industries who have been wiped out financially and in terms of mental health by these lockdowns? Now furlough has finished we have to open up.

I agree we now need to open up but I don't buy the whole Lockdown Lover check your privledge nonsense.

I accepted that Lockdown was necessary but did I enjoy it? Fuck no? First few months DH was shielding and having kids at home was OK. Kids loved it. I found it stressful at times though with neurodiverse dds
My work ended and as SE whose work had increased very recently the support was an insult. 3 months support was less than half a months income.

Lockdown 3 was by far the worse though. The school ramped up the pressure and dd3 especially just couldn't do it.

Yet I knew it was what the Country needed at the time.

@TheKeatingFive

What mid level mitigations are enough to keep delta at bay though?

In ROI there’s no indoor mixing and no indoor hospitality and cases are still skyrocketing. So it would need to be more than that.

Well what do you think would happen if these restrictions were lifted? go even higher or drop off. Have ROI hospitals got the capacity to deal with extra admissions and still deal with everything else?

As far as i could see, reinfection shown to be rare within 5 months (SIREN study) UK Govt say they don't know after that plus this study looked at the original variant not the Delta one.
www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00071-6

@Backofbeyond50

These people who want to keep lockdowns and restrictions must have very comfortable lives with very comfortable incomes and have all the time in the world to home school their children. Most people don't. What about those people and industries who have been wiped out financially and in terms of mental health by these lockdowns? Now furlough has finished we have to open up.

I agree we now need to open up but I don't buy the whole Lockdown Lover check your privledge nonsense.

I accepted that Lockdown was necessary but did I enjoy it? Fuck no? First few months DH was shielding and having kids at home was OK. Kids loved it. I found it stressful at times though with neurodiverse dds
My work ended and as SE whose work had increased very recently the support was an insult. 3 months support was less than half a months income.

Lockdown 3 was by far the worse though. The school ramped up the pressure and dd3 especially just couldn't do it.

Yet I knew it was what the Country needed at the time.

This.

Ironically, it is the behaviour of the ones calling people "lockdown lovers" that will ensure that we keep going in and out of lockdown.

@lannistunut

how those of who have developed natural immunity through fighting off infection don't count at all this is because vaccines appear to offer far greater protection against variants, yes.

No, they don’t. Previous infection has been shown to be very effective. Ireland has just recently extended its presumptive immunity to 9 months after infection and some countries are considering not vaccinating people who have been previously infected.

Well what do you think would happen if these restrictions were lifted? go even higher or drop off.

Presumably they would climb, but that’s not the point I’m making, if you want to actually contain delta spread you have to lock down hard. I think this is the third time I’ve explained this to you.

But expediting the wave by opening could have its advantages, so that the peak is hit before winter flu season.

Have ROI hospitals got the capacity to deal with extra admissions and still deal with everything else?

They’ll have even less capacity in winter. Exactly like the U.K.

I don’t see much evidence of reinfection with delta after having another strain. Too early to say if reinfection will be rare after having delta. But this far, having covid protects you better than having a vaccine.

@SEMPA1234567 That’s somewhat oversimplifying the situation. Your own ‘relatively small chance’ of dying isn’t the point and nobody is suggesting you lock yourself away, but to just abandon caution and ‘live life as normal’ isn’t the answer either. If we all just throw away the trappings of lockdown overnight, what was the point of the last 15 months ?

@lannistunut

The trouble with just a few more weeks is how long will that go on for? Just a few more weeks until that group is done, and that one and that one. Then oh it's winter we can't open up now as that would be crazy we better wait until feb. Then on and on.

This is presented as a rational argument but is actually completely irrational.

What this really is a cover story for 'I can not mentally cope so please just pretend it is over so I can go back to not thinking about something that scares me because it is out of my control'.

Yes, the reality of life is sometimes we don't know how long things will go on for. But that is not a good reason to open up before the population is fully vaccinated and therefore cause more people to die.

Have you told Chris Whitty this?

Presumably they would climb, but that’s not the point I’m making, if you want to actually contain delta spread you have to lock down hard. I think this is the third time I’ve explained this to you

I have NEVER suggested or implied i want to eradicate or keep levels where they are, that ship has sailed.
I believe that a more cautious approach is needed.

But expediting the wave by opening could have its advantages, so that the peak is hit before winter flu season

Assumes the wave doesn't just continue into winter and we then get super hi "normal" winter infections and CV ones too.

@pam290358

"what was the point of the last 15 months ?"

Ummmm the vaccine they developed and gave to millions of people?!

I believe that a more cautious approach is needed

And I’m not sure it will make any difference, in fact it could make the timings of the peak worse.

Assumes the wave doesn't just continue into winter

Waves rise and fall, that’s what they do. I’m not familiar with the modelling, but Whitty has endorsed it, as I’ve said, many times before.

Need to put a woman in charge, not a manchild with the intellect of a meringue. I live in NZ. I rest my case.

@TheKeatingFive

I believe that a more cautious approach is needed

And I’m not sure it will make any difference, in fact it could make the timings of the peak worse.

Assumes the wave doesn't just continue into winter

Waves rise and fall, that’s what they do. I’m not familiar with the modelling, but Whitty has endorsed it, as I’ve said, many times before.

Too many assumptions and Whitty has been totaly wrong before plus he endorses whatever Bojo tells him too - inc driving to Barnad Castle for an eye test.

The waves have fallen due to LD's, countries without them i.e Brazil just keep on infecting more people.