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Anyone want to predict when the next lockdown will be?

549 replies

MagicSummer · 18/07/2021 15:18

I am guessing last week of August/beginning of September, and schools won't be going back when they are due to!

OP posts:
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Whammyyammy · 21/07/2021 15:20

@gingerbiscuit19

They can leave the floor markings if they want it doesn't mean anyone follows them?
They had floor markings?
mrssunshinexxx · 21/07/2021 15:28

Don't think there will be another lockdown but restrictions over probably the whole of winter such as no mixing indoors or only with 1 other household again.
Just my opinion

MercyBooth · 21/07/2021 15:35

@mrssunshinexxx The compliance ship on that has sailed.

reannneeee · 21/07/2021 15:37

I expect if the current trend continues it will be a non-essential business lockdown. I don’t think they will bother policing who allows who in their houses because nobody will comply.

reannneeee · 21/07/2021 15:37

Or the banning of the unvaccinated for anywhere unessential

MercyBooth · 21/07/2021 15:40

lol

Kazzyhoward · 21/07/2021 15:49

[quote Notsowise]@leafygarden42 very specific. Why October?

If we need another lockdown (unlikely) it will be before then? Unless of course, you are confusing a full lockdown with a few restrictions?[/quote]
It'll either be a lockdown or nothing. There's no useful middle ground.

Pointless allowing pubs/restaurants to be open at the same time as trying to ban household socialising.

Pointless allowing non essential retail, gyms and hairdressers to be open if schools are closed, or vice versa.

The ONLY way to get numbers down is by a proper lockdown. Any middle of the road restrictions will harm the economy without yielding any useful reduction.

LucilleTheVampireBat · 21/07/2021 15:55

The ONLY way to get numbers down is by a proper lockdown

What do you mean by "proper" lockdown? Shall we all stay at home baking bread this time, or do you still need those of us who make and bring you stuff to carry on going out to work, on public transport?

IntermittentParps · 21/07/2021 16:05

Late September, I think.
I desperately need a holiday but I daren't book anything Sad

Notsowise · 21/07/2021 16:06

@Kazzyhoward

If they close things down it will effect the economy a lot more than it will case numbers. People are finished with not mixing with family and friends inside.

Kazzyhoward · 21/07/2021 16:31

[quote Notsowise]@Kazzyhoward

If they close things down it will effect the economy a lot more than it will case numbers. People are finished with not mixing with family and friends inside.[/quote]
Exactly my point. We need to balance the consequences of a lockdown against the benefits. Another lockdown will be catastrophic in financial, economic, mental health, social impacts, etc. Without a lockdown, the effects may be catastrophic in terms of deaths and non covid medical treatments being cancelled or delayed.

Before any further restrictions or lockdowns, etc., we need, and deserve, some proper support packages put in place to mitigate the damage to those most affected. Huge numbers of low paid workers, temporary staff, self employed, freelancers, etc have been hung out to dry due to Rishi's crazy scattergun approach to financial support. We can't have that again. Huge numbers of people have had their medical treatments cancelled or delayed. Huge numbers of students have had their education compromised.

It's 16 months since the pandemic started. The politicians, civil servants, public sector bosses, etc have had plenty of time to find better ways of supporting those most affected, and that now has to take priority. If they can't find fair, equitable, methods of supporting those most affected by restrictions/lockdowns, then we shouldn't be doing it.

Notsowise · 21/07/2021 17:01

@Kazzyhoward both options have huge cons but the risk of enforcing a lockdown, even with proper financial support is that people won’t follow it so the benefits we’ve seen in the past in suppressing the virus won’t happen.

The chances of fully vaccinated families staying apart for another Christmas are slim to none.

So yes, they can close things and put more financial help in place but it will be wasted if people continue to mix in their homes. Which I suspect, most would.

TheKeatingFive · 21/07/2021 17:05

The chances of fully vaccinated families staying apart for another Christmas are slim to none.

Yeah, this isn’t happening.

Except for NannyandJohn 😂

Wellbythebloodyhell · 21/07/2021 17:19

@TheKeatingFive

The chances of fully vaccinated families staying apart for another Christmas are slim to none.

Yeah, this isn’t happening.

Except for NannyandJohn 😂

I don't think @NannyAndJohn will interact with another human outside her household ever again, you know, cos its the right thing to do! She will single handedly save the country and when the Queen pops her clogs, Nanny's actions will have been so heroic that they'll throw Charles off his perch and we will have a Queen Nanny the 1st. Long may she Reign over us!
NotSoLongGoodbye · 21/07/2021 17:53

I won't be complying whenever it is. People are dying from lots of things not just covid ... we are 18 months in and people still seem to crave lockdown

SonnetForSpring · 21/07/2021 18:49

The data coming out of Israel seems to suggest the reduction in transmission due to the vaccines is offset by the evolutionary advantage of delta. So although the vaccines do protect well against hospitalizations and death, there are going to be a lot of cases if we have no restrictions. Israel have decided it is not possible to rely totally on the vaccine, vaccines have to be combined with other restrictions. People are testing less in the UK so the positivity rate is increasing and is now just over 11%. This means we do not have a clear picture of what is going on. So we will have to wait and see how many hospitalised and deaths we get. Awful situation. This is summer, heading into respiratory illness season. What a bloody mess. I really think schools are going to be impacted in autumn/winter. The government have decided to put the economy over health and education. So saddened by the inevitability of it all. The government are criminals.

Waxonwaxoff0 · 21/07/2021 18:50

@SonnetForSpring

The data coming out of Israel seems to suggest the reduction in transmission due to the vaccines is offset by the evolutionary advantage of delta. So although the vaccines do protect well against hospitalizations and death, there are going to be a lot of cases if we have no restrictions. Israel have decided it is not possible to rely totally on the vaccine, vaccines have to be combined with other restrictions. People are testing less in the UK so the positivity rate is increasing and is now just over 11%. This means we do not have a clear picture of what is going on. So we will have to wait and see how many hospitalised and deaths we get. Awful situation. This is summer, heading into respiratory illness season. What a bloody mess. I really think schools are going to be impacted in autumn/winter. The government have decided to put the economy over health and education. So saddened by the inevitability of it all. The government are criminals.
What is the solution then? Restrictions forever? That can't happen.
toolatetooearly · 21/07/2021 19:06

There won't be another lockdown.

NeverDropYourMooncup · 21/07/2021 19:37

Had an email from two supermarkets this afternoon, saying that the government had asked them to contact CEV people who were originally on the lists for help to let them know they still have priority for ordering. Haven't heard from them for ages.

I wonder why this has happened now?

Must be a pure coincidence.

TheTallOakTrees · 21/07/2021 19:40

Biscuit🥱

omgthepain · 21/07/2021 20:10

After the October half term until about 2 weeks before Christmas when We're told we can go Christmas shopping then a week snd a bit later can't see our families to give them the gifts!!!

Waxonwaxoff0 · 21/07/2021 20:10

@NeverDropYourMooncup

Had an email from two supermarkets this afternoon, saying that the government had asked them to contact CEV people who were originally on the lists for help to let them know they still have priority for ordering. Haven't heard from them for ages.

I wonder why this has happened now?

Must be a pure coincidence.

Because cases are very high and CEV people might not feel comfortable going out?
omgthepain · 21/07/2021 20:10

Nextdoor neighbour works in tesco she says people are stockpiling again already in preparation

Whatever9999 · 21/07/2021 20:21

@SonnetForSpring

The data coming out of Israel seems to suggest the reduction in transmission due to the vaccines is offset by the evolutionary advantage of delta. So although the vaccines do protect well against hospitalizations and death, there are going to be a lot of cases if we have no restrictions. Israel have decided it is not possible to rely totally on the vaccine, vaccines have to be combined with other restrictions. People are testing less in the UK so the positivity rate is increasing and is now just over 11%. This means we do not have a clear picture of what is going on. So we will have to wait and see how many hospitalised and deaths we get. Awful situation. This is summer, heading into respiratory illness season. What a bloody mess. I really think schools are going to be impacted in autumn/winter. The government have decided to put the economy over health and education. So saddened by the inevitability of it all. The government are criminals.
Call me thick if you like but how the hell can the positivity rate be 11%? With an average of 1million tests a day over the last week, that would give us an average of 110000 positives a day rather than the 47696 that the average daily rate is as of today. Surely the positivity rate is actually 4.77% (rounded to 2 decimal places)
Whatever9999 · 21/07/2021 20:23

Ah just had a brainwave, maybe they're getting their numbers from a certain Nanny