Anyone want to predict when the next lockdown will be?

[MagicSummer]

I am guessing last week of August/beginning of September, and schools won't be going back when they are due to!

Just noticed I’ve cocked up my admissions numbers there. didn’t notice they weren’t up to date. The 740 was from last Tuesday, so we’re probably already at 1000 admissions a day and possibly hitting 1500 by the end of this week.

Beginning to suspect the models might have underestimated how bad this wave could get. January levels of admissions look like an absolute certainty at this point.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

Just noticed I’ve cocked up my admissions numbers there. didn’t notice they weren’t up to date. The 740 was from last Tuesday, so we’re probably already at 1000 admissions a day and possibly hitting 1500 by the end of this week.

Beginning to suspect the models might have underestimated how bad this wave could get. January levels of admissions look like an absolute certainty at this point.

I feared that would be the case.

The link between cases and hospitalisations (and hence deaths) remains strong.

I think though with the link it is important to also look at the numbers who are currently IN hospital

Press too soon. I think these show that there are quicker turnaround times as well
15-07-2021 3,964
14-07-2021 3,801
13-07-2021 3,626
12-07-2021 3,416
11-07-2021 3,145
10-07-2021 3,002
09-07-2021 2,909
08-07-2021 2,740
07-07-2021 2,65

So please explain the value of a lockdown.

We have people saying the vaccines are not effective, and in any case we are not vaccinating children/teens.

What would a lockdown now achieve? A lockdown involving closing restaurants/cafes/attractions and people not travelling… surely once you lift the lid infections will just take off again. And so on and so on. Lives will not be saved, as sooner or later everyone is going to get it. Your life will only be certain to be saved if you hole up at home and don’t go out or mix with others…. till the end of your days.

Beginning of September. And BoJo will tell us it's all our fault for not being responsible and wearing masks

At best, lockdowns buy you a some time

And whenever restrictions are lifted case numbers will increase - it is inevitable and predictable

Exactly the other lockdowns had a purpose a reason that delaying it down the line made sense in order to achieve something.

Now we have no plans to do anything with that suppression is not the answer.

That said managing ourselves sensibly through this wave is what we should be doing - a set of sensible measures/restrictions that can enable us to live as normal as possible whilst managing numbers. Masks/some social distancing/some limits/testing etc is what we should be doing

@TheKeatingFive

We all know how nanny want to live her life by now,

The problem is the degree to which she wants to drag us all along with her.

I still think this particular poster is on the wind up. Nobody can be that ridiculous.

There’s a thread atm on what is good about the pandemic. You can guess who contributed!!

I still think this particular poster is on the wind up. Nobody can be that ridiculous

100% agreed. Sometimes their posts veer into comedy they're so far fetched.

October 23rd.

A friend who works as a consultant in the NHS said, as I was asking for info on who is vaccinated v unvaccinated (ideally also which vaccine) in ICU and do we know the ages.

Doesn't seem to be any such data necessarily available apart from the NHS/Gov reports on variants which is not exactly what I was looking for.

She said that she, and lots of her fellow medical colleagues, rely on Twitter feeds on ICU numbers from other doctors. Her take was that 85% of the sick in hospital are unvaccinated (mix of anti-vax and nder 30s not yet vaccinated) and about 10% single dose only. There will also always be some very old and frail people with weaker immune systems that may not be protected in the same way as those in the up to 80 group.

We just have to get on with it now. If the NHS can't cope it's because it's underfunded and we need to spend more money on recruiting nurses and staff instead of ploughing it into furlough payments.

At some point, with vaccinations we need to treat this more as a cold (which, anecdotally it seems to be - i.e. for those double-jabbed it's mostly mild) and that means stop self-isolation for asymptomatics - pleased to see this has been enacted with front line NHS staff now - and stop routine testing of school kids.

Nowhere else in Europe tests at this rate currently.

Her take was that 85% of the sick in hospital are unvaccinated (mix of anti-vax and nder 30s not yet vaccinated) and about 10% single dose only
Yup, my friend on Covid wards says there are a lot of people in their 30s and 40s who decided not to get vaccinated.
It is soul-destroying for the ward staff to be dealing with these unnecessary infections and transmission risks.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/19/i-work-in-an-nhs-covid-ward-and-i-feel-so-angry

Anyway, link above is a frontline view of it all.

@aldkj

Her take was that 85% of the sick in hospital are unvaccinated (mix of anti-vax and nder 30s not yet vaccinated) and about 10% single dose only Yup, my friend on Covid wards says there are a lot of people in their 30s and 40s who decided not to get vaccinated. It is soul-destroying for the ward staff to be dealing with these unnecessary infections and transmission risks.

My friend, who has been working flat out, including on Covid works, finds it hugely frustrating that this is not reported more widely.

Mid September I reckon, lasting until end of November with the promise of being able to visit family at Christmas. Until they stick half the country in tier 200 zones and we’re not allowed to leave our house again.

Pretty much Christmas last year again this year.

Johnson will dangle the carrot of Christmas mixing in front of Joe Public's noses in order to rile the economy up, then take it away at the last second.

The sensible ones are those already preparing for a Lockdown Christmas.

Best get the shop in now, huh nanny 🎅🏻

I hope you have a nice big freezer.

I shouldn’t rise to the debate, but @NannyAndJohn why do think everything (including every previous action) is the government’s fault? Do you never glance at other countries’ news?

Your views are extremely political, and also somewhat gleeful at the prospect of societal collapse. That’s not to say that the govt’s response has been necessarily great, but his is not a virus unique to the British Isles.

Just like Momentum roared onto MN during the last election, and also how some “vested interests” pop up on certain discussion boards , you clearly have a very political axe to grind.

In my dreams there is a BIG REVEAL of all MN posters and we can see who is really lurking behind their screens.

I’m still waiting for the definition of lockdown

I'm still waiting for the 100,000 daily cases we were supposed to have by 21st June.

Whatever some posters think, there are a lot of people who won’t be put through not seeing family and friends again. They can hand wring all they like.

@DottyHarmer

I shouldn’t rise to the debate, but *@NannyAndJohn* why do think everything (including every previous action) is the government’s fault? Do you never glance at other countries’ news?

Your views are extremely political, and also somewhat gleeful at the prospect of societal collapse. That’s not to say that the govt’s response has been necessarily great, but his is not a virus unique to the British Isles.

Just like Momentum roared onto MN during the last election, and also how some “vested interests” pop up on certain discussion boards , you clearly have a very political axe to grind.

In my dreams there is a BIG REVEAL of all MN posters and we can see who is really lurking behind their screens.

Wasn't that big reveal supposed to happen when Trump got back into the White House?

Or is this another conspiracy theory I haven't heard of so far?