Why so many new cases?

[MagicSummer]

I am probably being stupid and slow on the uptake, but could someone please explain to me why our case numbers are rising so quickly again, bearing in mind the huge proportion of people who have now had 2 or even just 1 vaccination? I am feeling very down in the dumps about it all again - it seems like a never-ending nightmare now and I can't see us getting our proper lives back for a very long time yet. So sad.

@noblegiraffe

With the current wave, we either live with it and accept the consequences OR we go back into a proper harsh lockdown, no foreign travel, no pubs/restaurants, no non essential shops, no non essential travel/entertainment etc.

Not necessarily. If you look at the age groups that are currently most infected with covid, it's the unvaccinated/partly vaccinated ones. I.e. young people.

Schools are closing, so that will reduce infection rates in the majority of that group. Pausing things like opening nightclubs and keeping restrictions on indoor mixing (like mask wearing, numbers) and really ramping up efforts to get the vaccination of over-18s complete by the time schools reopen could have a big impact on projected infection rates.

Don't spoil their fun Noble. If you believe everyone on MN, they're all fully jabbed, in their 40s and also in ICU.

Shroedinger must be wetting his pants.

[quote TheKeatingFive]www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2[/quote]
"Might be one day in the dim and distant future in the opinion of some people we asked" doesn't mean the same as "is" though does it?

You take your own conclusions from that article Princess.

I’m with the 90% of scientists who think it is or will be endemic.

While you’re at it, ask the rest of the world how their zero covid policies are going,

@sassbott

www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/several-people-seriously-ill-covid-21049827

www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/health/coronavirus/chief-nurse-of-york-and-scarborough-hospitals-warns-that-their-severely-ill-covid-19-patients-have-been-double-jabbed-3302725

www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/clinical-areas/immunology-and-vaccines/gps-and-data-indicate-continued-rise-in-double-vaccinated-covid-cases/

Those are reports from non national media outlets.
There are more of those if you really dig.

The prediction is that the infections are increasing in the double vaxxed now and could possible overtake the non vaxxed population.

So to all those people piling in on the poster who is commenting on what they’ve been told personally re ICU and the double vaxxed? Expect more from media outlets corroborating this.

Have you not noticed how in previous periods we were getting served daily charts on icu admission by age etc. Well where are those charts in mainstream media / front pages now? Showing not only age but vaxxed status?

@sassbott - The ideal scenario is to have all deaths in the double-vacc category. It sounds counterintuitive, but is not.

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@bumbleymummy,

It is easy for someone with no vulnerable people they care about to say this and also way too pessimistic.

We will reach herd immunity via a combination of vaccination and infections, and the vaccine tweaking will beat the mutations (or should do).

Summer 21 is better than 20 in terms of deaths and serious disease, and summer 22 will be better than 21.

Short of odd localised hotspots popping up, on a couple of years COVID will (probably) be written up as a triumph of modern science over an age-old adversary.[/quote]
No, scientists have already accepted that herd immunity isn’t possible because of the increased transmissibility of the delta strain. But at least the vaccines reduce the risk of serious illness/death for most people so we should be able to live with it without resorting to restrictions.

This one has vaccine info in regards to admissions and death. Lots of graphs for those who like them.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001358/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_18.pdf

This one is about what the Zoe app found
www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/clinical-areas/immunology-and-vaccines/gps-and-data-indicate-continued-rise-in-double-vaccinated-covid-cases/

@Geamhradh

Malta (from the graph above) currently has about 500 active cases, of which 200 are Italian teenagers on holiday.

With any luck they'll look at that and start denying entry to unvaccinated Italian teenagers as they already have to unvaccinated UK teenagers.

Remember this thread, all who participated by shouting down reality, and particularly those who screeched Prove there are double jabbed people in ICU, in the next weeks and months.

I made the mistake of reading through a few of the "it's over" threads from a few months ago.

Oh how naive we were.

@bumbleymummy,

No they have not. Only herd immunity by vaccination as we only vaccinate adults.

What happened to measles (r=~15)?

The Pandemic stage (which we are still in) wont last forever. The past tells us that 2 years is an average length of time and this one will last at least that length.

Anyone who thought it would be over before then was naive.

I cant see how it wont become endemic though - Australia are struggling to contain it China seems to have indicated some cases over the past week or so so that is one to watch

@PrincessNutNuts I agree with quite a bit of your viewpoints apart from the idea that the UK is the only high place. The rest of Europe and the US is soaring - it is in Asia and Oceania. South America are battling Lambda.

Should we be having freedom day tomorrow - no I dont think we should be. We should have moved to a set of measures that work alongside normal life as much as possible to get through the pandemic stage and then take stock.

COVID though is something we may well need to manage (without lockdowns) for a while. When it becomes endemic it will mean a steady constant number of infections per year probably similar to flu with occasional flare ups that made need further management.

This has become such a divisive issue.
On the one side you have one group how are vaccinated / couldn’t wait to get it.

Then you have those refusing the vaccine. Some have what could be called extreme views (right through to covid doesn’t exist), sliding right through to more moderate views.

Then you have a third group of people (who cannot have the vaccines).

Excluding the third group (as they bluntly have had their choice removed), we have a a society that is infighting in amongst themselves. We’re so busy taking chunks out of each and entrenching ourselves firmer and firmer into our respective camps that it’s stopping us have the ability to step back and ask the questions that need to be asked.

Questions like why has the chart disappeared from the Zoe app? On Friday it showed that positive cases in the vaccinated had overtaken the unvaccinated. Now I understand that that is subset of data - but they’re mathematical statisticians - they know how to present data as best as possible. Throughout this pandemic they’ve been largely neutral.

Why are people not asking why that is?

Re the ICU admissions. To those who have not RTFT, I linked 2 articles yesterday showing that ICU admissions do indeed have double vaxxed patients. They are regional papers - mainstream media/ news outlet’s are not reporting that. Why?

A month ago we were told the ICU would be filled with the non vaccinated and the virus would rip through the unvaccinated. Ok. Then where is the breakdown of ICU data showing that? And why has the one set of data that has proven that wrong been deleted?

If we could stop taking chunks out of each other to prove who is right/ wrong and focus on getting answers to questions around data and yellow card data etc etc. Actually get real scrutiny around what is happening perhaps that would be better.

We’re all in this cluster fuck together. We are. Unless you are one of the Davos elite whose life remains unaffected / you’re suddenly richer due to the huge wealth shift - then this will impact is all.

If you also take the time to read some of the scientists who were screaming against a mass vaccination in the healthy. You will see that what they predicted rising cases in the vaccinated.

I don’t understand why people aren’t looking at the data and demanding (en masse) more answers to the vaccines.
Take a look at other vaccine data sets (I did yesterday). Take a look at the number of deaths recorded that are attributable to the tentanus vaccination. Even assuming only 1% of reports are logged accurately, from why I found.
When I compared that to the numbers of deaths recorded against the covid vaccines - It’s staggering.

The tetanus vaccine has been around a decade. Covid? 6 months? And yet still people are not up in arms demanding answers. Why?

@sassbott

This has become such a divisive issue. On the one side you have one group how are vaccinated / couldn’t wait to get it.

Then you have those refusing the vaccine. Some have what could be called extreme views (right through to covid doesn’t exist), sliding right through to more moderate views.

Then you have a third group of people (who cannot have the vaccines).

Excluding the third group (as they bluntly have had their choice removed), we have a a society that is infighting in amongst themselves. We’re so busy taking chunks out of each and entrenching ourselves firmer and firmer into our respective camps that it’s stopping us have the ability to step back and ask the questions that need to be asked.

Questions like why has the chart disappeared from the Zoe app? On Friday it showed that positive cases in the vaccinated had overtaken the unvaccinated. Now I understand that that is subset of data - but they’re mathematical statisticians - they know how to present data as best as possible. Throughout this pandemic they’ve been largely neutral.

Why are people not asking why that is?

Re the ICU admissions. To those who have not RTFT, I linked 2 articles yesterday showing that ICU admissions do indeed have double vaxxed patients. They are regional papers - mainstream media/ news outlet’s are not reporting that. Why?

A month ago we were told the ICU would be filled with the non vaccinated and the virus would rip through the unvaccinated. Ok. Then where is the breakdown of ICU data showing that? And why has the one set of data that has proven that wrong been deleted?

If we could stop taking chunks out of each other to prove who is right/ wrong and focus on getting answers to questions around data and yellow card data etc etc. Actually get real scrutiny around what is happening perhaps that would be better.

We’re all in this cluster fuck together. We are. Unless you are one of the Davos elite whose life remains unaffected / you’re suddenly richer due to the huge wealth shift - then this will impact is all.

Did you read the article I posted earlier?

You will see that what they predicted rising cases in the vaccinated.

But that happens with rising cases of anything vaccinated against. Why is that a prediction to scream about?

I’ve experienced this conflict in approach to Covid. I’m finishing this coming week a termly contract on a teaching agency. My co- colleague who was teaching with me ( in the same room ) is an anti-vaxer.

She caught Covid and was absent from work for 3 weeks. She had always refused to wear a mask in the staffrooms and corridors but no senior staff ever called her out on it. No one seemed to notice except me. All the other staff respected the rules bar this teacher.

On her return, again she still won’t wear a mask and won’t get jabbed. Obviously it’s her choice not to get the vaccine but she’s been allowed to break school guidelines. She is very dismissive of Covid and in my opinion, her attitude is hugely disrespectful to others like myself at work, breaching health and safety protocol.

I reported her to my agency. Got told I didn’t have to be notified, they didn’t respond to my comments, questions or complaint about her not wearing a mask. They and the school don’t care whatsoever about the welfare of staff like myself.

I am 50 but not at risk or vulnerable. But there are older teachers,TA’s and office staff all older. She’s 35 and said it was mild. But for many others as we know, it’s life threatening and masks are supposed to be mandatory until tomorrow.

I start a permanent job in Sept. I’m so tempted to report both the school and the agency to the council as my concern ms have been totally and deliberately ignored. The agency want the profit from the teacher and the school want her to continue teaching. I feel that I should report although my DH thinks I shouldn’t bother.

My point being that if organisations/ work places are not taking it seriously now, then Covid will continue to just grow exponentially, thus prolonging the situation/ lockdowns.

My co colleague is contributing to the spread, knows it and doesn’t care. Fighting these kinds of attitudes from individuals and organisations means the majority of those who do follow the rules are continuously undermined.

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@bumbleymummy,

No they have not. Only herd immunity by vaccination as we only vaccinate adults.

What happened to measles (r=~15)?[/quote]
Measles provides life long immunity after infection. The measles vaccine is also more protective than the coronavirus vaccines are against delta.

@MadameXanadu

I’ve experienced this conflict in approach to Covid. I’m finishing this coming week a termly contract on a teaching agency. My co- colleague who was teaching with me ( in the same room ) is an anti-vaxer.

She caught Covid and was absent from work for 3 weeks. She had always refused to wear a mask in the staffrooms and corridors but no senior staff ever called her out on it. No one seemed to notice except me. All the other staff respected the rules bar this teacher.

On her return, again she still won’t wear a mask and won’t get jabbed. Obviously it’s her choice not to get the vaccine but she’s been allowed to break school guidelines. She is very dismissive of Covid and in my opinion, her attitude is hugely disrespectful to others like myself at work, breaching health and safety protocol.

I reported her to my agency. Got told I didn’t have to be notified, they didn’t respond to my comments, questions or complaint about her not wearing a mask. They and the school don’t care whatsoever about the welfare of staff like myself.

I am 50 but not at risk or vulnerable. But there are older teachers,TA’s and office staff all older. She’s 35 and said it was mild. But for many others as we know, it’s life threatening and masks are supposed to be mandatory until tomorrow.

I start a permanent job in Sept. I’m so tempted to report both the school and the agency to the council as my concern ms have been totally and deliberately ignored. The agency want the profit from the teacher and the school want her to continue teaching. I feel that I should report although my DH thinks I shouldn’t bother.

My point being that if organisations/ work places are not taking it seriously now, then Covid will continue to just grow exponentially, thus prolonging the situation/ lockdowns.

My co colleague is contributing to the spread, knows it and doesn’t care. Fighting these kinds of attitudes from individuals and organisations means the majority of those who do follow the rules are continuously undermined.

If she’s had covid then she’s assumed immune.

She was apparently behaving irresponsibly before she caught covid. I'd be reporting the school and the agency to anywhere I could.

@MadameXanadu

I’ve experienced this conflict in approach to Covid. I’m finishing this coming week a termly contract on a teaching agency. My co- colleague who was teaching with me ( in the same room ) is an anti-vaxer.

She caught Covid and was absent from work for 3 weeks. She had always refused to wear a mask in the staffrooms and corridors but no senior staff ever called her out on it. No one seemed to notice except me. All the other staff respected the rules bar this teacher.

On her return, again she still won’t wear a mask and won’t get jabbed. Obviously it’s her choice not to get the vaccine but she’s been allowed to break school guidelines. She is very dismissive of Covid and in my opinion, her attitude is hugely disrespectful to others like myself at work, breaching health and safety protocol.

I reported her to my agency. Got told I didn’t have to be notified, they didn’t respond to my comments, questions or complaint about her not wearing a mask. They and the school don’t care whatsoever about the welfare of staff like myself.

I am 50 but not at risk or vulnerable. But there are older teachers,TA’s and office staff all older. She’s 35 and said it was mild. But for many others as we know, it’s life threatening and masks are supposed to be mandatory until tomorrow.

I start a permanent job in Sept. I’m so tempted to report both the school and the agency to the council as my concern ms have been totally and deliberately ignored. The agency want the profit from the teacher and the school want her to continue teaching. I feel that I should report although my DH thinks I shouldn’t bother.

My point being that if organisations/ work places are not taking it seriously now, then Covid will continue to just grow exponentially, thus prolonging the situation/ lockdowns.

My co colleague is contributing to the spread, knows it and doesn’t care. Fighting these kinds of attitudes from individuals and organisations means the majority of those who do follow the rules are continuously undermined.

She may have been exempt from wearing the mask hence the school not saying a word to her. Report them for what? Not disclosing personal details about another staff member health?

Is the person a genuine anti-vaxer or named one incorrectly because they've asked questions or raised legitimate concerns. Far too many people are quick to throw anti vaxxer around for ridiculous reasons. I've been called anti alsorts because I have have asked questions and provided legit links.

Even if she had the vaccine she may have still got the virus, you realise this right?
Even if she had the vaccine, there is still a possibility she could have been asymptomatic and passed it.