Why so many new cases?

[MagicSummer]

I am probably being stupid and slow on the uptake, but could someone please explain to me why our case numbers are rising so quickly again, bearing in mind the huge proportion of people who have now had 2 or even just 1 vaccination? I am feeling very down in the dumps about it all again - it seems like a never-ending nightmare now and I can't see us getting our proper lives back for a very long time yet. So sad.

Again, people are posting things that are plain wrong.

If you have been double vaccinated you are 3x less likely to contract COVID (and thus cannot spread it).

Vaccines protect against infection, serious outcome and death.

www.gov.uk/government/news/latest-react-1-study-findings-show-covid-19-infection-rates-three-times-lower-for-double-vaccinated-people

@Canigooutyet

This is about the variants spread www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-case-data-18-june-2021

hopefully this link for the guardian they were reporting that more deaths were in the vaccinated. (Might have to add guardian.com into the start, I'm using a kindle that is a twat when it comes to sharing links)

theobserver/commentisfree/2021/jun/27/why-most-people-who-now-die-with-covid-have-been-vaccinated

Because the people most likely to die are (and always have been) the elderly. Even though they’re vaccinated, they’re still the most likely to be hospitalised and die - the ons figures have been showing this week on week.

I think Oxford AZ is only 60% effective against this variant. So you still have 40% chance getting it. Also its been let to rip through schools, unis and young people working in retail and hospitality. We should IMO have jabbed over 40's and then switched to over 12's and students / hospitality before doing other 20-30s because they could easily have been jabbed in schools and uni's and it was always going to spread in large group settings more quickly.

@bumbleymummy,

Stop the press!!! Old people more likely to die than young people….

Isn’t that blindingly obvious?

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@bumbleymummy,

Stop the press!!! Old people more likely to die than young people….

Isn’t that blindingly obvious?[/quote]
You would think so but apparently not.

Delta is a real spanner in the works when it comes to vaccines preventing you from catching covid. Efficacy has really gone down with this variant.

To be fair, it does still seem to be reducing hospitalisations and deaths in the people most likely to be hospitalised/die.

It just seems a bit more pointless to be encouraging low risk people to be vaccinated for ‘the greater good’.

I have had both doses of Pfizer, last one in May and I have covid now, has been very mild, blocked nose and loss of smell for 2 days all of which is coming back now. Definitely not vaccine resistant! Who knows how ill I could have been without it.

Who knows how ill I could have been without it.

This is what we’ll never know

@Sunshinegirl82

I do get frustrated with the constant criticism of every decision but without any real credible alternative proposals. When pushed posters tend to go two ways:

1. We wouldn't be in this mess in the first place if the government were competent and we'd done what NZ did.

2. indefinite restrictions of varying levels of severity - realistically to reduce the number of cases that would need to be full lockdown given the transmissibility of delta.

For various reasons those are obviously not runners. So what are the other options? I'm genuinely interested to hear about alternatives.

I don't consider "middle ground" a credible alternative - it doesn't work to get delta cases down but has costs associated with it. I can't see the value in maintaining current levels of restriction any longer.

We have this conversation as a country every time the government allow cases to build up over several months to a crisis point.

I am optimistic that one day - maybe after Lockdown 5 or Lockdown 6 - or when we get a new government - we'll belatedly realise that letting it get to this point over and over again is the problem.

This point where people throw up their hands and say "There are no good options" "There's nothing to be done". "It's now or never" etc.

And then we'll look into the basics of infectious disease control.

And do that.

And life will get better.

Because ten months of the year in restrictions, with a couple of months off every summer, paid for with the lives of 30,000 - 50,000 British people, is no way to live.

And at some point during Year 3 of Covid people will hopefully cotton on that it's our government's choices that keep putting us in this position.

And a note on modelling.

The government only asked for

"We're going to give up all pandemic mitigation measures in the middle of a pandemic, when's a good time to do that?"

To be modelled.

Unsurprisingly there is no good time to surrender your people to the virus.

Unsurprisingly there is no good time to surrender your people to the virus.

Oh good grief 🙄 it’s not the bloody plague!

It is true that many double jabbed people are in ICU. I know that for a fact.

I know of medics who are also coming down with it, despite working through the height of the pandemic unvaccinated.

They are of varying ages too, so not young or older.

I was quite complacent I think as the vaccination rates increased, but I find this turn of events worrying.

@PrincessNutNuts

I don't follow your logic.

Why would we spend years and years in a perpetual fight against covid? There is no other pandemic causing virus that has ever caused that to happen. What is different this time?

Is it your position that, if the government continue with their current approach, that the vaccines will fail and we will have to abandon plans to allow covid to spread and that no sort of herd immunity will ever materialise that will allow a return to normality? I assume as a result of variants?

If we change tack and aim for zero covid (I assume that's what you anticipate we will eventually have to do?) how will that work globally? There are plenty of countries that will never be able to lockdown sufficiently hard enough to be able to achieve zero covid (economies where people live hand to mouth etc) so how would we deal with that issue?

I'm not asking this to be goady, I just genuinely don't see how it's viable?

@CheltenhamLady

It is true that many double jabbed people are in ICU. I know that for a fact.

I know of medics who are also coming down with it, despite working through the height of the pandemic unvaccinated.

They are of varying ages too, so not young or older.

I was quite complacent I think as the vaccination rates increased, but I find this turn of events worrying.

Older people are still the most likely to end up in hospital/die. If you look at the actual figures, there are not significantly more young people in hospital - they just make up a larger proportion because there are fewer old people there.

@TheKeatingFive

Just to be clear, I've had both Pfizer vaccines

I Still got covid (confirmed by PCR test, all LF said negative) and I still have symptoms such as high temp, fast heart rate, mouth and throat sores and headache

So I'd say be cautious because the vaccine does not protect you from getting covid or from being quite ill

So I'd say be cautious because the vaccine does not protect you from getting covid or from being quite ill

I’m not disagreeing with you, I’m saying vaccine efficacy is still good in preventing hospitalisations/deaths, which is the main thing.

It's not the only thing though. 100,000 people getting covid per day is going to be very disruptive regardless of whether they end up in hospital as they will still be off work for over a week.

Particularly as it will be mainly young people catching it, so people who hire a mainly young workforce should be concerned.

Well o guess that’s what happens when you test a bunch of asymptomatic people and then make them isolate.

100,000 people getting covid per day is going to be very disruptive regardless of whether they end up in hospital as they will still be off work for over a week

Unless the U.K. goes back into hard lockdown, it’s going to happen regardless. Better now than delaying the wave a few months into flu season.

I’m in ROI, our delta wave is in full swing despite no indoor hospitality open and harsh lockdown for months. It’s spreading in AUS despite their very tight restrictions. Containment doesn’t look possible.

The idea that we should not only abandon restrictions like social distancing and masks indoors but also allow covid infectious people to wander freely among the general population with no attempt to identify and stop them is probably not going to win popular support.

allow covid infectious people to wander freely among the general population with no attempt to identify and stop them

Well that’s what they’re doing with vaccine passports.

@bumbleymummy

allow covid infectious people to wander freely among the general population with no attempt to identify and stop them

Well that’s what they’re doing with vaccine passports.

Vaccine passports won't allow those who have tested positive for covid to avoid isolation, they will allow close contacts to avoid automatic isolation if they don't have symptoms as I understand it (although I anticipate there will be a daily testing requirement that runs alongside that).

bumbley vaccinated people, from looking at the infection rates by age (per ONS random sampling), are far less likely to have covid than unvaccinated people. I think that's about risk management in a 'vaccine passport' scenario.

I don't think anyone has said that double jabbed people shouldn't seek a test if they think they have covid.

Why would we spend years and years in a perpetual fight against covid?

@Sunshinegirl82

Why wouldn't we?

What's going to stop it?

We're already in Year 2 of Covid.

And current U.K. government policy is teeing up Year 3 of Covid as we speak.

In Summer 2022 our government will probably do the same kind of things it did in Summer 2020 and Summer 2021 that lead to the next wave.

And so it goes on...