Why so many new cases?

[MagicSummer]

I am probably being stupid and slow on the uptake, but could someone please explain to me why our case numbers are rising so quickly again, bearing in mind the huge proportion of people who have now had 2 or even just 1 vaccination? I am feeling very down in the dumps about it all again - it seems like a never-ending nightmare now and I can't see us getting our proper lives back for a very long time yet. So sad.

@Geamhradh, older people are still the most likely to be admitted to hospital/ die, despite vaccination uptake in those groups being very high.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/hospitals

No vaccine is 100% effective, and some vaccinated people are testing positive, but thankfully very few

I know more people with it now than ever, we have higher numbers where I live than in Feb. Friends that have had it have been double vaxxed and have been very poorly.

@TerritorialPissings Yes we do. If I’ve read it right here www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?%20 then we’ve done more than 2x more tests per million population than France and nearly 4x than Germany.

We’re always going to have a high number of cases when we test so much.

When you have a very highly vaccinated population, with a vaccine that is very effective but not 100%, you will eventually see higher numbers of cases, hospitalisations and deaths in the vaccinated population than the unvaccinated.

1. The vaccine reduces your chances of catching covid but doesn’t stop it entirely.

1. People are mixing more and more and so inevitably case numbers will rise.

1. The Delta variant is more transmissible.

@Whyevencare yes definitely. I would like to know what % of these cases translate into hospital admissions and deaths, as that is where the concern lies, otherwise surely it really is more akin to living with flu as we currently do? I’m not trying to minimise how Covid HAS been, but hopeful that we’re seeing a shift??

This is a helpful explanation:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/most-covid-deaths-in-england-now-are-in-the-vaccinated-heres-why-that-shouldnt-alarm-you-163671

@Whyevencare

Cases appear to be rising in countries that have administered more vaccinations, is no-one concerned about this?

Surely that’s because if you have a large vaccination population you’re more likely to have fewer restrictions? Or are you suggesting the vaccine makes it more likely that you’ll catch it??

@ASchuylerSister thank you; that’s what I suspected…I feel so lost in a sea of data that rarely seems to be put in context, and appears to make things seem exponentially worse than they necessarily are

@Whyevencare

Cases appear to be rising in countries that have administered more vaccinations, is no-one concerned about this?

Not really. The evidence seems to show that the vaccine reduces the risk of serious illness and death so that’s a good thing. We should stop giving special privileges to vaccinated people though - clearly they can still be a risk to others.

Genuine question: do the UK test more than these other countries?

Not only do we test more than almost any other country per head of popultion, we also do more genomic sequencing so we know which varients are involved.
The only ones testing more are places like UAE with much smaller populations. Example Spain tests 2.93 per 100k whereas UK test 16.03 per 100k per day
ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-cumulative-total-tests-per-thousand-map

More transmissible variants predominantly.

And these graphs help to demonstrate the impact of vaccination, courtesy of RP131 on Twitter

Genuine question: do the UK test more than these other countries?

@TerritorialPissings

Our comparable case positivity rate says:

No. we just have vastly more cases.

But obviously testing level varies.

*Up to a certain point hospital admissions and patients on mechanical ventilation are a good point of comparison.

If a country have vastly fewer admissions and patients on mechanical ventilation as well as vastly fewer cases then the chances are they don't have large case numbers that they have failed to find due to inadequate testing.

As the U.K. testing system struggles, our detected cases may stop going up but we'll know if actual cases are still rising by the hospital admissions not going down. Until they reach capacity too.

*Past a certain point the health system has reached capacity and numbers can't rise any further. Hard decisions are being made at this point about who gets the hospital bed or the oxygen or the ventilator.

I had my second jab last Sunday, also the same time as dd started feeling ill, she has since tested positive but I've remained negative throughout, ( knocks on nearby wood table) hoping I stay that way, as far as I know neither of us have caught it before

I’m under 40 and have only had one jab. Plenty of people in my situation and lots of them will be socialising etc. Plus schools were allowed to remove the need for masks.
No wonder cases are going up.

@Anonaymoose

and some vaccinated people are testing positive, but thankfully very few.

I think you'll find it's more than a few, and they're not just testing positive, many are getting sick. My local icu is full of double vaccinated on ventilators.

Wthout any context that doesn't mean anything

Do you know the medical status of all of those people? How do you know how many there would be if no one was double jabbed? How many non double jabbed are in the ICU?

I'm not saying that information is available but it's necessary to draw any meaningful conclusion.

'How many is that then?'
'Are they in ICU because of Covid?'
'How do you know?'

An ICU consultant does a blog, it's really interesting www.nomoresurgeons.com/post/again-and-again-and-again

Only one hospital of course but it does give a snapshot of the escalation.

Christ, people are really wedded to their denial fantasies, aren't they.

Does anyone know if other countries count a Covid death as anyone who died within 28 days of testing positive, like we do?

@unwuthering

Christ, people are really wedded to their denial fantasies, aren't they.

It always gets a lot angrier and more denial-y on here when it's clearly going to hell in a handcart again.

@unwuthering

Christ, people are really wedded to their denial fantasies, aren't they.

It's depressing isn't it.

I hope on 'freedom day' most intelligent, responsible people will continue to use face covers and SD. Although if some of the posts on m are anything to go by its going to be 'I'll do what I like!' then of course blame Johnson when restrictions are reintroduced.

Yes, it's all very how dare you threaten me with reality.

@JaniieJones

'How many is that then?' 'Are they in ICU because of Covid?' 'How do you know?'

An ICU consultant does a blog, it's really interesting www.nomoresurgeons.com/post/again-and-again-and-again

Only one hospital of course but it does give a snapshot of the escalation.

Thanks, that's an interesting read, he seems relatively positive about the vaccine effects which is good to know

Does anyone know if the case numbers in the UK / England are from pcr tests or LFT?