Why so many new cases?

[MagicSummer]

I am probably being stupid and slow on the uptake, but could someone please explain to me why our case numbers are rising so quickly again, bearing in mind the huge proportion of people who have now had 2 or even just 1 vaccination? I am feeling very down in the dumps about it all again - it seems like a never-ending nightmare now and I can't see us getting our proper lives back for a very long time yet. So sad.

@TerritorialPissings well I saw some data the other day which said that we were testing 16 per 1000, and France is testing at 4 per 1000.

It’s not hard to see why. Very few restrictions in place, many not testing as they don’t want to be told to stay home, ignoring isolation rules after being a close contract, more places open, schools being told masks not needed etc.

The vaccines don’t stop people catching or spreading it, just hopefully lessening the risks when they do,

'Thanks, that's an interesting read, he seems relatively positive about the vaccine effects which is good to know'

Yes definitely positive about the vaccine it's just getting people to get them and the second doses isn't it. They should (depressingly) add a financial incentive a fiver a jab then they'd have people queuing up.

Honestly, why won't people just get them when we can all see the very tenuous position we're in.

Whyevencare, the cases are rising because those countries with more vaccinated people has less restriction in place?

Anyway, the vaccination seems to have positive impact on outcomes of those caught covid and hospitalised.
Clinical outcomes in vaccinated individuals hospitalized with Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2

I'm one of the least "denier" type people you could wish to meet.
I think the anti-vax attitude on MN and in real life is abhorrent, and I welcome the idea of Covid passports. I think Freedom Day will be seen by history as legalised murder and I think proper masks should remain mandatory.
That said, I can't manipulate the truth- that far fewer people are getting sick and dying, that the UK tests far more X population than most countries so its figures are skewed etc. to fit an apocalyptic narrative.

@unwuthering

Yes, it's all very how dare you threaten me with reality.

That's why all the denialist "Greatest Hits" are coming out on this thread - trying to find a way to dismiss the numbers.

@Whyevencare

Cases appear to be rising in countries that have administered more vaccinations, is no-one concerned about this?

It's not something to worry about, no. Cases are rising because the countries with high vaccination rates are able to ease restrictions - crucially, without corresponding increases in deaths and hospitalisations. Thousands being infected with a virus with a high death rate is a problem but thanks to the vaccines, it just isn't that deadly any more.

Malta (from the graph above) currently has about 500 active cases, of which 200 are Italian teenagers on holiday.

Wonder if he was at Wembley last week!

@Geamhradh

I'm one of the least "denier" type people you could wish to meet. I think the anti-vax attitude on MN and in real life is abhorrent, and I welcome the idea of Covid passports. I think Freedom Day will be seen by history as legalised murder and I think proper masks should remain mandatory. That said, I can't manipulate the truth- that far fewer people are getting sick and dying, that the UK tests far more X population than most countries so its figures are skewed etc. to fit an apocalyptic narrative.

Hospitalisations and deaths are a much smaller proportion of cases thanks to the vaccines.

But as cases rise higher than they've ever been before so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are inextricably linked.

In order to see similar numbers of hospitalisations and deaths to previous waves, there just has to be enough cases.

Schools innit?

this will get even worse next week since some people are apparently planning to stop taking precautions because they’re „bored“ and have „done their bit“

Yes, @brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Look at what’s happening in Israel. Sadly.

We need to keep masks and social distancing.

The health secretary in ROI went on record the other day to say that of all the icu admissions in Ireland since March, only 0.5% of them (only one person in fact) was double jabbed.

So let’s call out scaremongering horseshit for what it is.

Oh and we have a ‘sadly’

I’ll get my bingo card out.

@PrincessNutNuts

So on the basis that the current restrictions aren't sufficient to slow the growth in cases is it your view we should go back into lockdown?

Why do you welcome the passport?
The passport doesn't give you an extra screen of protection. There is still a chance you can catch and pass it on. Just your chances are reduced than someone who hasn't had any vax.

This passport crap is going to create more spreading because of the freedoms it gives. Gone on holiday, come back and carry on as you were even though you might be carrying the next delta with you.

@TheKeatingFive

The health secretary in ROI went on record the other day to say that of all the icu admissions in Ireland since March, only 0.5% of them (only one person in fact) was double jabbed.

So let’s call out scaremongering horseshit for what it is.

Yes lovely.. in areas with high take up but the point is many areas haven't got a high double jab rate. The link I posted earlier was only at 27% in one area so it is concerning no matter how much the collective of deniers/mask refusers/anti vaxxers are trying to sweep it under the carpet.

@TheKeatingFive

The health secretary in ROI went on record the other day to say that of all the icu admissions in Ireland since March, only 0.5% of them (only one person in fact) was double jabbed.

So let’s call out scaremongering horseshit for what it is.

Well said.

And I'm no denier/anti masker/anti vaxxer. As many on this thread with whom I've clashed in the past year will testify.

The vaccines do stop you getting infected, as well as preventing hospitalisations and deaths.

In the latest wave:
1.4% of primary school children are positive.
2% of secondary school (up to year 11) are positive.
2.9% of year 12 to 24 year olds are positive.
1.4 % of 25-34 year olds are positive.
0.7% of 35-49 are positive.
0.5% of 50-69 are positive
0.2% of 70+ are positive.

The huge growth is in the younger less vaccinated population and is due to the higher r of the delta variant and socialising among young adults.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights

How many is that then?

No idea

Are they in ICU because of Covid?

Yes

How do you know?

My sister works there. Am sure I will now be accused of being an anti vacc troll but honestly I don't really care.

No idea of health status /age etc, I would imagine older /cev which isn't great considering those are the people the vaccine is meant to protect.

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@PrincessNutNuts

So on the basis that the current restrictions aren't sufficient to slow the growth in cases is it your view we should go back into lockdown?[/quote]
On the basis that we've been going in and out of lockdown for 16 months now, I'd like to see basic infectious disease protocol implemented adequately.

If we had a fit for purpose test trace and isolate system combined with effective border policy and quarantine we wouldn't be in this position.

The 4 tests were failed in May but the government went ahead with Step 3 of the roadmap anyway.

We wouldn't be in this position if they had.

So what I really want is competent government.

The government we've got is going to put us back into lockdown.

But not before their ideologically driven incompetence has caused the deaths of tens of thousands of British people.

Again.

Why do people jump straight into ‘you want us to go back into lockdown’ when others are urging caution? There is a middle ground, we been living it for several months.

And why the insistence that it’s mainly younger people and unvaccinated who are getting it, and are asymptomatic? That’s not the case in my town, lots of double jabbed people in their 30’s and above who have have some awful symptoms.

Yes lovely.. in areas with high take up but the point is many areas haven't got a high double jab rate.

I wasn’t talking about that, I was responding to the poster who said an icu was full of double vaxxed patients.,

@PrincessNutNuts

But we are in this position. We are not in a hypothetical zero covid situation. In the absence of a time machine, what do you propose that we do now?

The current restrictions are not working to stop case growth. I can see the logic and objective behind implementing a strict lockdown until all over 12's are vaccinated, I can see the logic and objective of opening up now. I struggle to see the logic of continuing to implement a middle ground (with its associated economic costs and societal harms) for a prolonged period whilst cases continue to rise. That seems like the worst of all worlds.

@unwuthering

The Delta variant is roughly twice as transmissible as the original virus; some say much more than twice as transmissible. And not enough people are fully vaccinated, and even those that are are passing it on, if not falling badly ill themselves. That's why experts all over the world are describing Bozo's plan to lift most restrictions as 'an unethical experiment'.

The delta variant is something like 274% more transmissible than the original Alfa variant.