Why so many new cases?

[MagicSummer]

I am probably being stupid and slow on the uptake, but could someone please explain to me why our case numbers are rising so quickly again, bearing in mind the huge proportion of people who have now had 2 or even just 1 vaccination? I am feeling very down in the dumps about it all again - it seems like a never-ending nightmare now and I can't see us getting our proper lives back for a very long time yet. So sad.

All viruses mutate and those mutations are generally more transmissbale but less harmful. That's how viruses work. I'm not very convinced by a mass vacinne programme which leads to the same results society wide we would normally expect from any new flu type virus - oh but costs billions.

www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/several-people-seriously-ill-covid-21049827

www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/health/coronavirus/chief-nurse-of-york-and-scarborough-hospitals-warns-that-their-severely-ill-covid-19-patients-have-been-double-jabbed-3302725

www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/clinical-areas/immunology-and-vaccines/gps-and-data-indicate-continued-rise-in-double-vaccinated-covid-cases/

Those are reports from non national media outlets.
There are more of those if you really dig.

The prediction is that the infections are increasing in the double vaxxed now and could possible overtake the non vaxxed population.

So to all those people piling in on the poster who is commenting on what they’ve been told personally re ICU and the double vaxxed? Expect more from media outlets corroborating this.

Have you not noticed how in previous periods we were getting served daily charts on icu admission by age etc. Well where are those charts in mainstream media / front pages now? Showing not only age but vaxxed status?

@sassbott

As vaccine coverage increases that is what you would expect. The vaccines are fantastic, better than we ever could have hoped for, but they are not perfect.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/most-covid-deaths-in-england-now-are-in-the-vaccinated-heres-why-that-shouldnt-alarm-you-163671

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@PrincessNutNuts

But we are in this position. We are not in a hypothetical zero covid situation. In the absence of a time machine, what do you propose that we do now?

The current restrictions are not working to stop case growth. I can see the logic and objective behind implementing a strict lockdown until all over 12's are vaccinated, I can see the logic and objective of opening up now. I struggle to see the logic of continuing to implement a middle ground (with its associated economic costs and societal harms) for a prolonged period whilst cases continue to rise. That seems like the worst of all worlds.

[/quote]
It's the second worst of all worlds.

Freedom Day and its ensuing chaos followed by 10 months of Lockdown and a government that still doesn't put in place basic infectious disease control - so we do this all again next year - is the worst of all world

@Anonaymoose

and some vaccinated people are testing positive, but thankfully very few.

I think you'll find it's more than a few, and they're not just testing positive, many are getting sick. My local icu is full of double vaccinated on ventilators.

Really. Please state what hospital and the figures

@PrincessNutNuts

So lockdown it is then.

I've said before that those who strongly believe we should have followed a zero covid strategy will fundamentally disagree with every decision the government make because, rightly or wrongly, they move us further and further away from that aim.

I can see the logic behind the decision to release restrictions now, that's not to say it's definitely a brilliant idea, but it has logic.

Haven’t rtft but listening to radio it seems cases are up more in vaccinated? From Zoe app

Freedom Day and the ‘I’m done’ attitude isn’t going to cut much ice with Lambda if it takes hold. So far, everything I’ve read estimates it to be twice as infectious as Delta and more resistant to vaccines. And it’s already here, what could possibly go wrong? 🤔

@Sunshinegirl82

Okaaaay - the infection rate is already standing at 51,000 new infections per day as of yesterday. Where is the logic in allowing people to ditch their masks on Monday and go to a nightclub?

Or the logic in basically giving up track and trace completely??

It doesn't seem all the logical to me. It seems like more of the same utter bollocks we've have from Boris right from the flippin' start.

@PrincessNutNuts talks sense - even though she's married to him now

@MrsPelligrinoPetrichor

No vaccine is 100% effective, and some vaccinated people are testing positive, but thankfully very few

I know more people with it now than ever, we have higher numbers where I live than in Feb. Friends that have had it have been double vaxxed and have been very poorly.

Exactly my experience too. 3 sets of friends, double vaccinated - all sick as pigs.

Last year I knew nobody with Covid.

@Sunshinegirl82

When you have a very highly vaccinated population, with a vaccine that is very effective but not 100%, you will eventually see higher numbers of cases, hospitalisations and deaths in the vaccinated population than the unvaccinated.

Why is that out of interest?

I do get frustrated with the constant criticism of every decision but without any real credible alternative proposals. When pushed posters tend to go two ways:

1. We wouldn't be in this mess in the first place if the government were competent and we'd done what NZ did.

2. indefinite restrictions of varying levels of severity - realistically to reduce the number of cases that would need to be full lockdown given the transmissibility of delta.

For various reasons those are obviously not runners. So what are the other options? I'm genuinely interested to hear about alternatives.

I don't consider "middle ground" a credible alternative - it doesn't work to get delta cases down but has costs associated with it. I can't see the value in maintaining current levels of restriction any longer.

@bestbefore

Does anyone know if the case numbers in the UK / England are from pcr tests or LFT?

Presumably from the PCR tests because the lft are so unrealiable

[quote leafygarden42]@Sunshinegirl82

Okaaaay - the infection rate is already standing at 51,000 new infections per day as of yesterday. Where is the logic in allowing people to ditch their masks on Monday and go to a nightclub?

Or the logic in basically giving up track and trace completely??

It doesn't seem all the logical to me. It seems like more of the same utter bollocks we've have from Boris right from the flippin' start.

@PrincessNutNuts talks sense - even though she's married to him now [/quote]
Because continuing to do what we are doing is not stopping cases rising. If we want to stop cases rising we need to increase restrictions.

Modelling has suggested that keeping restrictions for longer will simply delay the wave and could result in more deaths due to pushing it into the Winter months.

I know it seems obvious that lifting restrictions whilst cases are high and rising = obviously a terrible idea but it's not straightforward. There are no good answers.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/05/chris-whitty-keeping-covid-restrictions-will-only-delay-wave

@clarkkentsglasses

I think this article explains it quite well:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/most-covid-deaths-in-england-now-are-in-the-vaccinated-heres-why-that-shouldnt-alarm-you-163671

This is about the variants spread
www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-case-data-18-june-2021

hopefully this link for the guardian they were reporting that more deaths were in the vaccinated. (Might have to add guardian.com into the start, I'm using a kindle that is a twat when it comes to sharing links)

theobserver/commentisfree/2021/jun/27/why-most-people-who-now-die-with-covid-have-been-vaccinated

Because people aren't testing as much as they claim whilst continuing to go against guidelines. Those same people believe they won't suffer with or die from covid, if you don't have the vaccine you're selfish and if you're vulnerable stay at home.

I'm vaccinated yet I currently have covid and do does my entire family.
We are all vaxxed to the Max apart from under 18s
We still got it
2 people at work got it as well
All vaccinated
The Delta variant is vaccine resistant

The Delta variant is vaccine resistant

This isn’t the case and it’s irresponsible to say so.

It appears to be very effective in preventing serious outcomes. Much less effective in preventing transmission and infection.

This passport crap is going to create more spreading because of the freedoms it gives. Gone on holiday, come back and carry on as you were even though you might be carrying the next delta with you.

This. It’s a stupid idea. Clearly more about coercing people into having the vaccine than actually reducing spread.

I agree that there's no simple answer.

I don't want infinite restrictions either. But you know what? wearing a mask isn't so terrible. At least keep that as mandatory.

It's not obligatory to get the worst and highest amount of covid infections 'because it's summer' - Remember last year? Eat out to help out - cos that went sooo well.

I'm sorry, but I can see the same shitshow happening all over. I work in the NHS and it ain't pretty. Unpleasant as the facts are - we will be doing a lockdown (is it 4 or 5 now?) by October if not before, as we will no doubt have run out of ICU beds.

I have said from the start (as have many others) just stop with the foreign travel. Like why do we need thousands trouping in and out of our airports etc etc daily.

The mess with the Delta variant?? Maybe if our 'clever' government had made India a red country straight off and at least attempted to quarantine we would have had a very different scenario now.

The Delta variant is vaccine resistant

This isn’t the case and it’s irresponsible to say so.

It appears to be very effective in preventing serious outcomes. Much less effective in preventing transmission and infection.

That's what I meant!!!

@TheKeatingFive

It might be irresponsible, but the poor woman is living it.

Well lots of people currently have covid so the vaccine didn't stop them getting the virus.

So the delta variant is resistant to the vaccine to a certain extent

That's what I meant!!!

Precision with language does matter.

but the poor woman is living it.

She’s ill. People do get ill. I hope she feels better soon. But vaccines significantly reducing serious illness and death is very good news, even if people are still getting sick.