Anyone absolutely dreading the figures next week after Wembley

[Homeontherangeuk]

49 deaths reported today, 50 yesterday & 42,000 cases plus today, I am feeling very nervous about the weeks ahead... The govt simply have to man up & take ownership of this escalating catastrophe....

None of the test events showed spikes.

The test events were useless. If you read beyond the headlines about them, 80% didn’t bother to do a follow up test so it’s unknown if they showed spikes or not.

I do agree that gathering in pubs etc will cause the biggest rise. And rises from Wembley will be caused by the visits ti pubs and public transport etc the same day too.

@WASHI

Silly question but… Why will this wave peak and have a natural fall?

Previous waves have required a lockdown in order for them to fall.

True, but we didn't have lots of people vaccinated during the previous waves, so it's more difficult to predict. I thought that because vaccination rates were ramping up alongside, it would become more difficult for it to spread in a highly vaccinated population (effectively herd immunity) and there would be a natural fall when we got to a herd immunity level of coverage.

However, I'm less sure now, because

• Delta seems more transmissible and more vaccine resistant (lots of vaccinated people catching it)
• apparently a higher level of vaccination will be needed for herd immunity with Delta (85% rather than 70%)
• and the whole adult population has now being offerred the vaccine, so the % of first doses (around 70%) may be close to the maximum we are going to achieve without changing strategy.

I do wonder if the government are aiming for it falling due to natural immunity (i.e. letting it spread amongst the unvaccinated to kind of top up the 15% missing for herd immunity in the vaccine coverage).

My worry is that in doing so we end up with an even worse new strain.

Silly question but… Why will this wave peak and have a natural fall?Previous waves have required a lockdown in order for them to fall.

Because at a certain point the virus will run out people to infect. Bear in mind that we have a lot of vaxxed people now.

We’re about to open up nightclubs with no mitigation measures. The Netherlands did the same and saw in excess of 700% growth in 10 days.

@Lucidas yes but the people who want to go to night clubs are will already have been visiting packed pubs / homes watching football in large groups.

Just posted on another thread but I've had a negative LFT everyday this week. I have covid. DP has covid. He yesterday positive on LFT Monday and PCR Tuesday, I did a PCR Tuesday and tested positive Weds. Still negative today on LFT. I could get on a flight tonight if I wanted and pass a LFT test how many other people are testing false negative?

I think more people were harmed from getting drunk during wembley than catching anything.

@Summersdreaming

Just posted on another thread but I've had a negative LFT everyday this week. I have covid. DP has covid. He yesterday positive on LFT Monday and PCR Tuesday, I did a PCR Tuesday and tested positive Weds. Still negative today on LFT. I could get on a flight tonight if I wanted and pass a LFT test how many other people are testing false negative?

I'm pretty sure I have it too and am testing negative on LFTs (I fit the Zoe list of symptoms for double vaccinated perfectly and I can now barely taste my food).

Did you know that on average 175 people die every single day due to poor diet in England, just England. Puts things into perspective with this daily death reporting. Does anyone here watch those figures so closely? What about cancer? There is a death every 4 minutes in the UK due to cancer, an average of 450 people every day l. Perhaps that's a figure you're all watching closely too?
I'm so sick of these threads now. They are thoroughly depressing, are not helpful to anyone's mental health, and no, they are not about being honest about the "true" picture of what is happening. However will people cope when they don't have Covid statistics to look at and contemplate every day?

Poor diet and cancer are not infectious.

If it’s not a Covid death it doesn’t matter.

It’s ridiculous.

People are so desperate to get back to normal they cannot see the bigger picture. We are heading for a bumpy ride.
There is limited availability for testing in some areas too which is worrying.
I wish we had kept things as they were for a bit longer, life was more or less normal anyway.

I do understand how fatigued people are though. I am very worried about my CEV parents but their view is they want to enjoy the rest of their lives not hide away at home which had affected their fitness levels to be honest.

I know a family of six that went to the Spain v Italy match. They've all gone down like dominos, a couple very poorly.

I’m not really hearing anything about the US anymore. They seem to have gone back to normal (I realise that’s not all the states)

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-57796133.amp

There's a bit about how the US is doing here. It seems those countries that did worst at the outset are having a smoother exit, provided they have a strong vaccination programme (so fingers crossed for UK)

@QueenStromba

Poor diet and cancer are not infectious.

No they are not, but the truth is that if we as a society we’re bothered enough about them then the numbers could be massively reduced.

But at some level we have decided, both consciously and subconsciously, that there is an ‘acceptable’ amount of illness and death from certain things.

We could also stop doing frivolous, fun non-essential stuff and devote all our time money and effort into eradicating a whole bunch of bad things. But we don’t because we inherently recognise that there has to be a balance between existing and living. Obviously, the exact point of where that balance is up for discussion and can change but the obsession with saving ‘even one life’ is damaging in the long run.

@RosaMoline it varies in the US - some states are seeing rises not seen since Winter

www.npr.org/2021/07/13/1015581093/covid-cases-in-parts-of-missouri-and-arkansas-surge-to-levels-not-seen-since-win?t=1626343114274

Missouri in particular has been hit hard and I think had a scramble to get oxygen to a particularly affected hospital.

Others are starting to bring back mask mandates such as Florida. THey are probably where we were 4-6 weeks ago with Delta

Yeah, I keep seeing people parrot the 99.5% of covid deaths in the US being in unvaccinated people stat but that was before they ran my had any delta.

Tupla the only reasons I can see for numbers coming down are the final few getting their first and second doses, and herd immunity will then be achieved by it spreading through the unvaccinated.

@Quartz2208

Oh that’s disheartening (Florida)

I was hoping it would be a beacon of hope as they’ve had a few months of normality 😢

Its only a recommendation at the moment @RoseMoline but I think there are concerns the vaccines have stalled. Its very political given the fact the Governor hates masks

It will be interesting to watch as well at Delta has just hit

But at some level we have decided, both consciously and subconsciously, that there is an ‘acceptable’ amount of illness and death from certain things

Eg smoking fags

@gardeninggirl68

For most fit ands healthy people covid will be mild

I didn't see many pensioners in the crowd

They should be fine

Well that's ok then It's not like people aren't sealed in a bubble with their own generation and only mix with people their own age, is it.

After all this time living in a pandemic and some people still don't understand how virurses spread. I despair.

There’s no pcr tests available in my area today at all so maybe the spike from football and events won’t happen in that no one can get a test.

If they mix with others those are secondary contacts and unless the original people test positive they won't catch it from them