New Boris Statement: Where is this going?

[DadAManger]

‘We recommend masks but only recommend them’
‘Deaths will increase and we may reach 100,000 new cases per day’
‘We must open now and if not now, when?’
‘The slower we take it, the smaller number of people will die’
‘Return to the office of you can, otherwise keep working from home’

Just before Boris spoke, there was a BBC piece claiming that 10-20% of all Covid cases (mild, without symptoms, or otherwise) will be long-Covid cases of some sort or another. Now there a million long-Covid cases.

Are we aiming for herd immunity? Anyone else think this is going to be confusing for most and lead to a default setting of ‘normal’? Where is this going?

[quote BungleandGeorge]@TheDailyCarbunkle I think you need to look at the modelling and expert opinion of what is likely to happen with children. And no it’s not that the majority of children will get it in the summer. It’s that there will be a reservoir of infection which will hit from September onwards when schools return. And yes of course you can get covid multiple times, we already know that. Schools are just one example but it applies to workplaces- too many people off at the same time causes massive disruption.[/quote]
Ok, so say that that happens. So what? Some children get it during the summer, some get it in September. If we continue restrictions now, how is that going to make any difference?

The wall I keep on banging my head against is this idea that you can somehow prevent infections. YOU CANNOT. You get vaccinated, you have restrictions, you destroy education, businesses and lives and covid will still go around. No matter what. So at some point you absolutely have to just say ok let's get on with this as best we can. You just have to. The alternative is to continue to focus entirely on one infection and forget about everything else in life but what's the point in that? Why avoid an infection in order to have a pointless, fear-filled existence? You might as well just take your chances and be done with it.

What I think people are really struggling to accept is that the virus has happened and while there are some fruitless gestures you can take to 'control' it, there is no point ever at which you will be able to 'stay safe.' No amount of hand sanitiser, hazard tape on the floor, pointless one way systems will protect you. You just have to accept it, same as you accept the risk of other infections, cancer, accidents. It's one of the many things that can kill you.

It really makes me sad to see how wound up and terrified people are about this, to the extent that they're willing to ditch a significant proportion of their lives and ask to be controlled and medicated. I'd love to somehow convince all those people that yes, a virus is going around, but that isn't the only thing in the world and you can go ahead and think about and do other things.

I think people will really regret wasting so much time worrying.

Daily I agree that the focus on safe messaging has meant that many won’t consider that it is delay and slowing only.

So how much is it worth to stop getting it now v winter? And when is a better time.

We delayed at great expense which made sense as vaccines happened and also hospital capacity.

But that cost / benefit changes as it is just delay.

Where I have been at for a year @TheDailyCarbunkle.
Most around me have been oh so careful. To what end? Unless they are going to stay like that forever, and I think a handful are considering it. Yes, they now have vaccines, but they have all woken up now finally I think to, that is not the whole answer.
They have all woken up finally to, I think, that variants will always happen. Mind you a few are still going, ooh, new variant, ooh, ooh, look.

My lingering question is, how often will people get it in their lives?Over and over and over?

When people kept their kids home from school initially, I thought, to what end?
Are you going to keep them home forever? Which of course most now dont want to do.

What a mess! So the realisation has hit that uncontrolled mass infection will mean too many health workers having to isolate due to contacts so the solution is to make them exempt from isolating? Given that double vaccinated people can still spread covid and tests are not 100% this is surely very risky in a setting where people medically vulnerable?

I don’t think it’s going to do a lot for hospital acquired covid infections.

We might just have to learn to live with the fact that if you go into hospital you are quite likely to pick up an infection that makes you sicker than you were before you went in.

Given that double vaccinated people can still spread covid and tests are not 100% this is surely very risky in a setting where people medically vulnerable?

There will have to be a certain amount of redeployment of staff, so that the most vulnerable patients (eg cancer wards) have the 'safest' staff. Which of couse is somewhat problematic, as that might mean experience gaps.

But there are limits to who you knowingly put into less safe circumstances, and people will have to do their best to work round them. Nobody wants to be the one who brings infection to the highly vulnerable, and the resilience and pragmatism shown has been impressive.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

I don’t think it’s going to do a lot for hospital acquired covid infections.

We might just have to learn to live with the fact that if you go into hospital you are quite likely to pick up an infection that makes you sicker than you were before you went in.

Which unfortunately happens sometimes anyway, sadly.

Might just stop a few clogging up a&e unnecesarily though.

What I think people are really struggling to accept is that the virus has happened and while there are some fruitless gestures you can take to 'control' it, there is no point ever at which you will be able to 'stay safe.' No amount of hand sanitiser, hazard tape on the floor, pointless one way systems will protect you. You just have to accept it, same as you accept the risk of other infections, cancer, accidents. It's one of the many things that can kill you.

Yes. This.

@Halloweenrainbow

What a mess! So the realisation has hit that uncontrolled mass infection will mean too many health workers having to isolate due to contacts so the solution is to make them exempt from isolating? Given that double vaccinated people can still spread covid and tests are not 100% this is surely very risky in a setting where people medically vulnerable?

What's the alternative? The effect of restrictions and attempts to reduce risk over the last year has to been to create massive NHS waiting lists, destroy businesses and education and increase the risk of other diseases. It hasn't been a solution in any sense of the word - it's a panic move that has to stop at some point. People then have to accept the fact that viruses go around, that you can get it in a cinema, a hospital, a school. Most people will be absolutely fine, but as with every illness some will suffer more or die. This has always been the situation. Where things have gone wrong is the creation of the idea that covid is somehow the only illness that can stop the whole world, we must all fear it and prevent it at all cost, even when doing so create massive other problems.

Now is the time just wake up and resume life again. Delaying it won't achieve anything but more fallout and problems.

@TheKeatingFive

What I think people are really struggling to accept is that the virus has happened and while there are some fruitless gestures you can take to 'control' it, there is no point ever at which you will be able to 'stay safe.' No amount of hand sanitiser, hazard tape on the floor, pointless one way systems will protect you. You just have to accept it, same as you accept the risk of other infections, cancer, accidents. It's one of the many things that can kill you.

Yes. This.

No. Not this.

No. Not this.

What then?

Bit like saying speed limits and laws don’t protect us 🤦🏼‍♀️

@TheDailyCarbunkle - Well said, and totally on point.

We have done all we can to stop NHS strain, this is not an immediate concern, so now we have to start moving to regain some normality.

I do believe that lockdowns are a luxury afforded by the wealthy, it is very easy to continue to ask for lock downs, whilst WFH in your spacious house and garden.

For the good of society, we need to make inroads back to normality.

Bit like saying speed limits and laws don’t protect us

Not at all. The jury is well and truly out over whether sanitiser, badly worn masks and other covid ‘measures’ are making any difference.

Meantime, most people get infected in their own homes, workplaces and hospitals.

Might just stop a few clogging up a&e unnecesarily though.

And I suppose if we’re being brutally honest it will save the NHS huge sums of money on cancer drugs if the patients all die with Covid instead.

Perhaps killing off the vulnerable because everyone needs to die sometime has more benefits than I’d previously considered.

The British Medical Association have just given their view:

The BMA
@TheBMA
·
Lifting #COVID19 restrictions before a significant proportion of the population has been fully vaccinated will allow the virus to re-tighten its grip, and will put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.

Pressing ahead regardless is perilous and irresponsible

Those not fully vaccinated now are very low risk. I can absolutely understand why having an exit wave now in summer could be a better idea than having it in winter.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

Might just stop a few clogging up a&e unnecesarily though.

And I suppose if we’re being brutally honest it will save the NHS huge sums of money on cancer drugs if the patients all die with Covid instead.

Perhaps killing off the vulnerable because everyone needs to die sometime has more benefits than I’d previously considered.

This is pure nonsense and not based on any actual data. A 93 year old with multiple chronic illnesses has an 85% chance of surviving covid. Bear in mind that that group includes people for whom a cold or a UTI can be fatal.

Why do people still believe that covid is killing everyone off???? The vast vast vast majority of people come through it fine, many don't even know they're ill or have such minor symptoms they think they have a cold.

Why are people so convinced of the doom scenario? It's almost like they want or need to believe it.

Likely new guidelines for ECV. So are they going to have to ask people their vaccibe status and how the fyck are ECV going to avoid being indoors or the unvaccinated for that matter.
inews.co.uk/news/health/clinically-vulnerable-people-shielding-return-new-guidance-1099808

Sorry that was ECV children

@TheKeatingFive

Those not fully vaccinated now are very low risk. I can absolutely understand why having an exit wave now in summer could be a better idea than having it in winter.

How do you know? 65% have had two jabs. That’s a whacking 35% that haven’t.

@DadAManger

The British Medical Association have just given their view:

The BMA
@TheBMA
·
Lifting #COVID19 restrictions before a significant proportion of the population has been fully vaccinated will allow the virus to re-tighten its grip, and will put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.

Pressing ahead regardless is perilous and irresponsible

I file that under ‘well, they would say that wouldn’t they’

That’s a whacking 35% that haven’t.

Presumably all under 45 with no health issues. If you look up the stats for serious outcomes among that cohort, you’ll see what I mean.

I read (on here I think) that the 4 week delay was to ensure that the 40-50 age group had two jabs before opening up as all the data strongly pointed to 45 being a bit of a tipping point at which serious cases started to rise (though obviously not anyway close to how they rise after 60).

What I don't get is why there isn't more anger that after 16 months the NHS is still saying 'we're not ready we can't cope.' Surely the main task over the last year and a bit should have been ensuring that the health system can cope as much as possible with any surge? How is it acceptable for that still to be used as an excuse? Basically the health system is acting as a barrier to life.