New Boris Statement: Where is this going?

[DadAManger]

‘We recommend masks but only recommend them’
‘Deaths will increase and we may reach 100,000 new cases per day’
‘We must open now and if not now, when?’
‘The slower we take it, the smaller number of people will die’
‘Return to the office of you can, otherwise keep working from home’

Just before Boris spoke, there was a BBC piece claiming that 10-20% of all Covid cases (mild, without symptoms, or otherwise) will be long-Covid cases of some sort or another. Now there a million long-Covid cases.

Are we aiming for herd immunity? Anyone else think this is going to be confusing for most and lead to a default setting of ‘normal’? Where is this going?

Remember India, with their lack of restrictions? Yes things were bad there for a while - their healthcare system is very patchy and was underprepared. Cases grew and grew and then just dropped - in one month they fell by 300,000. That's what viruses do.

Where did you get this idea from? India is only now coming out of restrictions that were imposed in April / May.

Why would you post lies like this?

This is what needs to happen now and I’m glad the government are going for this approach. We all need to manage our own risk, as many have done their whole lives king before covid. We don’t need the government to tell us how to live our lives. Those of us who want to live our lives normally can, those who are vulnerable or worried can choose to limit their interactions, change jobs, home educate if they wish and gave exactly the same choices as those who were vulnerable to other viruses before covid was a thing. It’s our own responsibility now how we choose to live our life, given the virus is never going away, and this is how it should be.

@TheKeatingFive

That’s a whacking 35% that haven’t.

Presumably all under 45 with no health issues. If you look up the stats for serious outcomes among that cohort, you’ll see what I mean.

I read (on here I think) that the 4 week delay was to ensure that the 40-50 age group had two jabs before opening up as all the data strongly pointed to 45 being a bit of a tipping point at which serious cases started to rise (though obviously not anyway close to how they rise after 60).

No known health conditions. And at risk of long covid.

I’m under 40, I’ve had only one jab. I don’t know if I get covid whether I’ll end up with long covid.

They could have waited a little longer.

@TheDailyCarbunkle

What I don't get is why there isn't more anger that after 16 months the NHS is still saying 'we're not ready we can't cope.' Surely the main task over the last year and a bit should have been ensuring that the health system can cope as much as possible with any surge? How is it acceptable for that still to be used as an excuse? Basically the health system is acting as a barrier to life.

I agree but how do you deal with a lack of enough nurses for example in that period of time?? The NHS has been underfunded for years. You can’t undo that in 16 months.

I have heard it all now 😂😂😂, the nhs is acting as a barrier to life. Wtf. Also them
Stupid vulnerable people how Dare they stop the healthy living.
Maybe all healthy people who catch Covid should be told they can’t use the hospital. Because they are healthy and won’t need it 🤦🏼‍♀️😂

@Earlydancing

They saud that the modelling shows that it doesn't matter when they lift restrictions now, the numbers remain roughly the same. So I guess best to open in the summer, when it's easier to be outside and hospitals aren't as full, and try and save some businesses,and the economy.

I know people have aow view of society, but WE are society. Most of us are responsible and try to do the right thing. Those that don't were probably not doing the right thing before July 19th anyway.

They only asked Warwick to model when was the best time to end all efforts to combat covid.

It's not surprising that there isn't one.

@ComDummings

They’re wanting to peak the wave as early as possible to make winter less shit I think.

People who already died in summer can't clog up the wards in winter.

@Tinydancer321

I have heard it all now 😂😂😂, the nhs is acting as a barrier to life. Wtf. Also them Stupid vulnerable people how Dare they stop the healthy living. Maybe all healthy people who catch Covid should be told they can’t use the hospital. Because they are healthy and won’t need it 🤦🏼‍♀️😂

You don't seem to understand. What I'm saying is that as long as restrictions are in place in order to 'protect the NHS' then it is the NHS that is preventing everyone from getting on with their lives - ie the healthcare system is a barrier rather than a help.

@Iggly - lack of staff is a huge issue but staffing isn't the only way to approach a crisis. A lot of it is about leadership and planning which seems to have been completely absent over the last year. Even simple things like staff taking holidays has been mismanaged to the extent that some staff are struggling to get any time off and others are having their leave booked for them at times when it doesn't work for them. It's such a disgraceful mess.

They could have waited a little longer.

And have an exit wave in autumn / winter? I totally understand why they didn’t think that was a better option.

Restrictions were always about the system coping. Not preventing low risk individuals from getting covid.

@crocidura

Remember India, with their lack of restrictions? Yes things were bad there for a while - their healthcare system is very patchy and was underprepared. Cases grew and grew and then just dropped - in one month they fell by 300,000. That's what viruses do.

Where did you get this idea from? India is only now coming out of restrictions that were imposed in April / May.

Why would you post lies like this?

I think you've misunderstood. Covid spread in India when the restrictions were minimal - they climbed and climbed. Restrictions were put in place - though it's worth pointing out that they were very inconsistent and poorly enforced, especially among poorer areas, but before those restrictions could have any real effect the virus peaked and dropped massively. That's a normal epidemiological mechanism - it's a very common pattern for viruses to climb and then burn out. I don't know why you think it's lies.

@TheDailyCarbunkle At last, some sense. My DH and me have felt the same way during the whole of this pandemic. You say it so much better than we ever could though. Thank you.

I totally agree that we can’t keep locking down to protect the nhs. At some point the health service has to adapt to the reality of what we’re dealing with. That might well mean a total rethink of its role and purpose. Which was needed long before covid, but becomes even more necessary now.

@Iggly - but it would help if the NHS does say what it is doing to help itself to cope.

@ComDummings
Does that necessarily follow? That more people getting it now, means less people getting it in winter time??

The effect of restrictions and attempts to reduce risk over the last year has to been to create massive NHS waiting lists, destroy businesses and education and increase the risk of other diseases.

Do you think if there had been no restrictions, the NHS would have been able to function completely normally then? Surely waiting lists have increased because the NHS has been consumed with treating Covid patients while having staff off sick with Covid? Not sure how you are blaming waiting lists on lockdown tbh.

It's great to say well we've just got to learn to live with it and get back to normal, as if Covid is a state of mind. 100,000 new cases a day is hard to just live with. That's a lot of people off work isolating. It's also a lot of hospitalisations and deaths.

[quote lightand]@Iggly - but it would help if the NHS does say what it is doing to help itself to cope.

@ComDummings
Does that necessarily follow? That more people getting it now, means less people getting it in winter time?? [/quote]
What on earth do you mean?

The nhs tells the government every year what it needs to run well. Every year that is ignored.

What ever we do we better not say it’s the tories fault the nhs is underfunded 🤦🏼‍♀️😂

@Tinydancer321

What ever we do we better not say it’s the tories fault the nhs is underfunded 🤦🏼‍♀️😂

Better not mention that we’ve had the Tories in power since 2010 and they’ve gutted the nhs and local government since the off.

Nope.

Better not.

Covid spread in India when the restrictions were minimal - they climbed and climbed. Restrictions were put in place - though it's worth pointing out that they were very inconsistent and poorly enforced, especially among poorer areas, but before those restrictions could have any real effect the virus peaked and dropped massively. That's a normal epidemiological mechanism - it's a very common pattern for viruses to climb and then burn out. I don't know why you think it's lies.

So Covid spread in India when there were no restrictions, they introduced restrictions and the number of cases fell, but that was nothing to do with restrictions, it was the virus burning out, coincidentally at the same time as the lockdown? What's the biological mechanism for burn out of this particular virus and if it's happened in India, why hasn't it happened here?

@singingstones

The effect of restrictions and attempts to reduce risk over the last year has to been to create massive NHS waiting lists, destroy businesses and education and increase the risk of other diseases.

Do you think if there had been no restrictions, the NHS would have been able to function completely normally then? Surely waiting lists have increased because the NHS has been consumed with treating Covid patients while having staff off sick with Covid? Not sure how you are blaming waiting lists on lockdown tbh.

It's great to say well we've just got to learn to live with it and get back to normal, as if Covid is a state of mind. 100,000 new cases a day is hard to just live with. That's a lot of people off work isolating. It's also a lot of hospitalisations and deaths.

The idea was, lockdown so that the NHS can continue as normal. That didn't happen.

What should have happened is a short lockdown, to minimise the impact of the restrictions, during which all the money spunked on the covid app and test and trace was pumped into the NHS to reorganise it and put it into a state to cope - genuinely cope - with infections. Then reopen and stay open. Opening up and locking down in an ever-repeating cycle is stupid, it solves nothing, just delays infections till later and causes a huge number of other problems in the meantime.

If there's a crisis you cope with the crisis. You don't set everything on fire and hope that that'll solve the problem. The fact that people can't see that really baffles me.

I'm not sure that they will do a volte face on the NHS. Isn't it more likely that any collapse would provide an opportunity to have some serious reorg and sell off the profitable bits.

And let everyone else just join the queue.

The idea was, lockdown so that the NHS can continue as normal. That didn't happen.

No, the idea was lockdown so that the NHS was not overwhelmed. Nobody with half a brain cell, especially as we watched what was happening in Italy, could ever have thought that it was possible for the NHS to continue as normal during a pandemic.

[quote TheDailyCarbunkle]@Iggly - lack of staff is a huge issue but staffing isn't the only way to approach a crisis. A lot of it is about leadership and planning which seems to have been completely absent over the last year. Even simple things like staff taking holidays has been mismanaged to the extent that some staff are struggling to get any time off and others are having their leave booked for them at times when it doesn't work for them. It's such a disgraceful mess.[/quote]
Its ALL about lack of staff.
Without nurses, doc's and the huge other number of HCP's, treatments and operations don't happen.

Why are staff not taking hols etc ? not enough of them.

But still healthcare students have to borrow huge amounts (and on v hi interest rates) to train & then pay back @ 9% of earnings, thats a pretty big pay cut on quite low wages.

So as long as this Tory govt insists on running down the NHS, the issues you've raised will continue.

What should have happened is a short lockdown, to minimise the impact of the restrictions, during which all the money spunked on the covid app and test and trace was pumped into the NHS to reorganise it and put it into a state to cope - genuinely cope - with infections. Then reopen and stay open.

Reorganising the NHS and putting it in a state to cope with a pandemic without any restrictions - so presumably building new hospitals and training many new doctors and nurses - in a "short" lockdown? 🤔

@singingstones

The idea was, lockdown so that the NHS can continue as normal. That didn't happen.

No, the idea was lockdown so that the NHS was not overwhelmed. Nobody with half a brain cell, especially as we watched what was happening in Italy, could ever have thought that it was possible for the NHS to continue as normal during a pandemic.

Sorry but the NHS was totally overwhelmed, huge number of deaths at home, few elective treatments and now waiting lists heading toward 13m :(

That looks to me like an overwhelmed health service.

I ve friends in France and Italy, their health services are not facing the issues we are, because they have so much more capacity and not constantly running at 95% (in normal times)