Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Yorkshire and the Humber, UTLAs and the North Yorkshire district council areas

@boys3

South West UTLAs

Bristol I think it’s going down as I believe the last time I asked you whether it was behind the x

My city stands out like a sore thumb and not in a good way!

But despite the county having incredibly high vaccine rates (69%) my city has a lot less fully vaccinated (under 61%). Some of that is probably demographics, but I wonder how much of it is down to vaccines.

We have also escaped the worst of previous ways so definitely more people to infect.

Sorry, I’m new on this thread so sorry if this has been covered recently but wonder if there’s any data comparing number of tests vs number of cases in different European countries?

I can’t help but think there must be a correlation between number the high number of cases in UK and huge amount of testing here (eg of the young asymptomatic)?

Does the UK really have such relatively high numbers or is it about testing and reporting differences?

ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

Testing data here.

We do test more than everyone else but our positivity rate at the moment is higher than much of Europe and increasing.

Thanks very much wakeup.

@Wakeupin2022

ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

Testing data here.

We do test more than everyone else but our positivity rate at the moment is higher than much of Europe and increasing.

I find it a little harder to interpret. LFT twice a week would catch a lot of very minor infections for double-jabbed people who fight it off quickly so they don't go on to be unwell and it isn't common practice everywhere. Hopefully the positivity rate will reduce soon, but it doesn't look as problematic as, say, Spain.

If we were only testing symptomatic for diagnostic purposes though, our positivity rates would also be very low. So positivity rate is no longer the easy comparison that it once was, who and why you test does matter now with case distributions differing due to vaccinations.

It's clear though that there are considerably more cases in the UK at the moment than elsewhere in Europe, we seeded delta first.

Has anyone seen any data relating to the rate of Beta in France?

I do think that our 50k cases would perhaps be 30/35 k cases and if we take Spain as an example they are probably not at a very dissimilar infection rate.

Should say 30/ 35k cases elsewhere.

Beta in France (pale blue): www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/situation-updates/variants-dashboard.
The surveillance report is useful: covid19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu/#4_Variants_of_concern.

@MRex is Spain higher ?

Is Denmark possibly a similar testing strategy, lots of community testing with their tests required for stuff in their app?

infection rates in Copenhagen similar to London.

@PlumpCushion

Sorry, I’m new on this thread so sorry if this has been covered recently but wonder if there’s any data comparing number of tests vs number of cases in different European countries?

I can’t help but think there must be a correlation between number the high number of cases in UK and huge amount of testing here (eg of the young asymptomatic)?

Does the UK really have such relatively high numbers or is it about testing and reporting differences?

the actual number/prevalance in the UK currently is best estimate over 700k. (ONS data on 1 in 95)

so the real number of infections per day / incidence is of course likely to be higher than 50k from that.

The ONS 1 in 95 of course relates to England

The UK consists of England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. And lest we forget, given the thread subject matter, Health is a devolved.

England does account for around 85% of the UK population, however as a data thread perhaps we could all strive to get the basic facts at least correct.

[quote EasterIssland]@MRex is Spain higher ?[/quote]
I would agree. Looking at the colours used Spain looks a lot higher (as does Greece).
I wonder if there are more updates about travel to follow from Monday?

Yes, it isn't feasible mathematically that Spain has fewer cases than UK. If they're all Delta and so are UK cases, then I'm not sure if it matters. It's Beta that has lower vaccine immunity.

Looking at the age distribution of cases in England - which comes with a five day reporting lag. These are the seven day rate figures since 1st July by age band. 20-24s still clearly the highest but flattening over the past few days.

This is then the cumulative percentage increase by age band since the position on 1st July

The Saj has just tested positive apparently; rather disrupting my flow. Rather its just been reported that he has; although I'd expect to be one of the first who he would personally let know as soon as he received the result.

Well that table explains nicely the absolute carnage it has been teaching in a 13-18 school this half term...!

Back to the case in hand; this is the absolute change in the case rate since 1st July by age band; putting the percentage increases into some sort of perspective.

Sticking with England latest seven day average by specimen date sits just under 33,000, graph showing how this has grown since start of June.

With a bit of rounding, and again referencing the seven day average, not case totals on individual days, looking at the doubling

June 8th : 5,000

June 23rd : 10,000

July 2nd : 20,000

as at July 14th : 33,000 so not yet at the 40,000 for the next doubling.

Just to add that last graph also showed the seven day average for confirmed cases originating from a PCR, and those from a LFD. LFD being the source test, although a number will be sunsequently confirmed (or dismissed) by a PCR test.